Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 3:39 PM   Moonset 3:17 AM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 1026 Pm Pdt Fri May 17 2024
Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Sat - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. S swell 2 ft after midnight. Sun - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Sun night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds.Mon - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Mon night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.Tue - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Strongest wester portion. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.Wed - W to nw winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 1026 Pm Pdt Fri May 17 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 05z, or 10 pm pdt, a 1032 mb surface high was centered 1300 nm northwest of point conception. A 1002 mb low was centered in southern nevada.

FXUS66 KLOX 180533 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1033 PM PDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
17/813 PM.

A persistent marine layer will remain in place through the weekend as strong onshore flow continues across the area. Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue to be a staple of the forecast, struggling to clear from the coast each afternoon.
Breezy to gusty onshore winds will occur across the interior valleys and adjacent foothill areas each afternoon and evening.
Better clearing with slight warming is possible next week as onshore flow could weaken.

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...17/813 PM.

A long wave trough embedded along the West Coast will remain in place through early next week, maintaining a strong onshore flow and deep marine layer pattern. The current marine layer depth is around 3500 feet across the LA Basin, with low clouds already reaching the lower coastal slopes this evening. The LAX- DAG gradient is expected to remain strong through Monday, generally ranging in the +8 to + 10 mb range each afternoon. This will translate into gusty onshore winds across the interior, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph common, and isolated gusts as high as 45 mph in the foothills of the Antelope Valley (which may need a wind advisory at times this weekend). We have seen isolated gusts of around 45 mph near Lake Palmdale for the past few hours. With the marine layer so deep, we may see some patchy morning drizzle through the weekend, with the possibility of reverse clearing (where coastal areas may see better clearing than the interior).
Temperatures will remain at least 3-6 degrees below normal and possibly more where clouds linger most of all of the day.

*** From previous discussion ***

On Monday the trough will deepen along the coast and also pull in a secondary upper low to our southwest that has been slowly working its way eastward. This will likely deepen the marine layer further with possibly more extensive drizzle during the morning hours and lower chances for afternoon clearing.

For far interior areas skies will generally remain clear, though can't rule out some stratus making into parts of the Antelope Valley, interior SLO County and the Cuyama Valley. Temperatures there will be a few degrees above normal through the period.
Gusty west to southwest winds likely each afternoon.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...17/200 PM.

There is still good model and ensemble agreement on a significant weakening of the onshore flow Tue/Wed following the passage of the persistent long wave trough along the West Coast. NAEFS and deterministic pressure gradients all showing onshore flow weakening 3-4mb Tuesday with the flow aloft shifting to the north- northwest. This should promote much earlier marine layer clearing and 4-8 degrees of warming, especially in the coastal valleys.

This may be short-lived though as models are showing yet another upper low dropping out of the Pac NW Thu/Fri that will likely pus southwest California right back into the deep marine layer pattern. And it looks like that will remain through the following weekend.

AVIATION
17/2351Z.

At 2350Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 5400 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

Overall for the 00Z TAF package, high confidence for desert TAFs and moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. Lower confidence for coastal/valley sites due to uncertainties with flight category changes with the marine layer stratus.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. MVFR to VFR cigs expected through much of the forecast period. Any east wind component on Saturday morning is expected to be 6 kt or less. There is a 20 percent chance of clearing on Saturday afternoon.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. MVFR cigs expected through early Saturday afternoon. There is a 20 percent chance of no clearing on Saturday afternoon.

MARINE
17/1033 PM.

For the Outer Waters, generally high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday, winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. On Sunday, SCA level winds will develop across PZZ670 then spread into PZZ673/676 Monday through Wednesday with the potential for SCA level seas also.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Sunday through Wednesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the area, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels tonight through Wednesday. However across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds Monday through Wednesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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Prisoners Harbor
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Sat -- 01:49 AM PDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:17 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:26 AM PDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:20 PM PDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:38 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:49 PM PDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Prisoners Harbor, Santa Cruz Island, California, Tide feet

Bechers Bay
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Sat -- 01:50 AM PDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:18 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:27 AM PDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:21 PM PDT     1.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:40 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:50 PM PDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bechers Bay, Santa Rosa Island, California, Tide feet

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