Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:28PM Saturday June 24, 2017 9:49 AM EDT (13:49 UTC) Moonrise 5:40AMMoonset 8:03PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 901 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms.
Sun night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day.
Wed..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 901 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will approach from the west late tonight. This front should reach the waters Sunday, but may linger nearby until another front pushes it well offshore by late Monday or Tuesday. Dry high pressure will follow Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Beach, NC
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location: 34.03, -77.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 241035
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
635 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Synopsis
Remnant tropical moisture from previous storm cindy will pass
across the region this afternoon through early Sunday, bringing
a good chance of rain, which may be heavy at times overnight.

Slightly cooler and much drier air will move into the region
early next week. A warming trend is expected mid to late of
this week.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 am Saturday... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of
moisture across the tennessee valley poised to move east today
as broad troughing sets up across the eastern u.S. A cold front
will move across the carolinas slowly through tonight
associated with the trough. This along with the piedmont trough
when combined with precipitable water values of well over two
inches points to widespread convection this afternoon extending
into the overnight hours. We have maintained likely to
categorical pops for this time. Localized flooding will likely
be the primary threat although there is some shear present and a
wet microburst or two is possible. Temperature forecast is
straightforward with highs around 90 and overnight lows in the
middle 70s.

Short term Sunday through Sunday night
As of 3 am Saturday... By daybreak Sunday the axis of maximum
pwat values will be edging offshore, taking the potential for
the heaviest of rainfall with it to sea. Surface convergence
however will linger farther inland intrinsic with the surface
trough, and thus rain should be ongoing at this time, in a
scattered to likely fashion, favored across the eastern zones
where the overlap with higher column moisture prevails. Through
the day on Sunday showers should be tapering off from west to
east primarily due to h8-h6 drying. The surface trough front
will cross the coast Sunday afternoon so maximum temperatures
Monday may be a few degrees cooler compared to Sunday even
though the air may be slightly rain-cooled Sunday. Relatively
cooler air to usher in Tuesday, middle and upper 60s and drier.

Moisture will linger along and near the coast Monday where
isolated convection may form, but could just end up as cumulus.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... Mid level troughiness sharpens through
Tuesday. Initially a dry westerly flow but a slightly more
moisture-laden wsw flow through Tuesday. Daytime temperatures
will be held a bit below climatology through this time frame.

The trough axis appears to swing through on Wednesday bringing a
more decided drying. The rest of period will be characterized
by a building upper ridge over the southeast and bahamas. This
will mark a transition back towards seasonable temperatures and
isolated convection mainly during the diurnal maximum.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 1035z... Isolated MVFR CIGS this morning, then expect
mostlyVFR conditions, until later today as showers and
thunderstorms become increasingly widespread, as deep moisture
returns to the area along with the piedmont trough with a cold
front late in the period. Certainly some MVFR and even ifr is
possible in and near +shra and tstms. Moisture tropical in
nature may restrict vsbys below 1 4sm in torrential rain late
this afternoon and overnight. Showers to decrease in coverage
and intensity from west to east aft 12z Sunday.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr conditions are possible in
thunderstorms Saturday night and into Sunday. Thunderstorms are
expected to be most numerous Saturday evening and overnight.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 3 am Saturday... Quite gusty across all areas this morning
and the coastal waters are no exception. The winds oddly enough
are from a belt of strong 850mb winds that can be traced back
to tropical storm cindy. The stronger winds will essentially
remain over the waters while subsiding inland. Expect a roving
range of 20-25 knots to at times 15-20 knots through tonight.

Seas will be 4-6 feet with a small craft advisory continuing.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 3 am Saturday... This will be an improving marine period as
both winds and seas drop off, as a front nears and moves off the
coast. SW wind-waves will dampen through the day Sunday, but an
opposing nw-n later Sunday will cause a bit of sea state
confusion but conditions will still improve because the post
frontal winds will not be all that strong. Monday however a
slight high pressure surge could bring 20 kt gusts so seas may
hold in a 2-4 foot range. Sunday morning visibilities offshore
may range from 1-3 nm in areas of heavy showers and storms.

Long term Tuesday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Not a typical summertime pattern in place
for most of the period. A sharpening mid level trough will be
in place. A series of weak surface boundaries may come through
but with only very minor fluctuations of wind direction, though
a northerly component will dominate. Wind speeds never really
look to exceed 10kt by much though a few higher gusts will be
possible. Seas will average 2 to occasionally 3 ft with near
shore wave shadowing much more pronounced than usual this time
of year where SW winds much more common.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for scz054-056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz106-108.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Sunday for amz250-252-254-
256.

Synopsis... Mjc
near term... Shk
short term... Mjc
long term... Iii
aviation... Mjc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 9 mi64 min W 6 83°F 1016 hPa77°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi41 min SW 14 G 21 80°F 78°F1014.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi50 min 78°F5 ft
WLON7 14 mi49 min 84°F 82°F1014.4 hPa (+0.9)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi49 min SW 16 G 23 82°F 79°F1013.6 hPa (+1.0)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi41 min SW 19 G 27 79°F 79°F1014.4 hPa
SSBN7 33 mi109 min 3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 34 mi41 min WSW 12 G 14 79°F 78°F1014.9 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 42 mi39 min SW 19 G 25 81°F 81°F1015.6 hPa77°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi64 minSW 13 G 207.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F77°F86%1015.2 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC17 mi56 minSW 14 G 2310.00 miA Few Clouds84°F75°F74%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW3SW7SW5W7W3W4SW3W6SW3SW5SW4SW4SW6SW5SW4SW5SW6SW6SW6SW6SW8SW7SW8SW7
2 days agoN5N5N6N5N4SE4SE4SE5SE4SE4S4S3S3SW3SW3SW3SW4SW4SW4SW6SW5CalmW3W3

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:19 AM EDT     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:16 AM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:06 PM EDT     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:49 PM EDT     6.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30-0.6-0.50.31.52.83.84.34.13.320.6-0.5-0.9-0.60.31.83.5566.25.74.4

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:35 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:49 AM EDT     4.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:35 PM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:12 PM EDT     4.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.42.61.80.7-0.1-0.20.72.13.23.843.62.921.20.4-0.3-0.40.62.23.64.54.94.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.