Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:07PM Saturday September 23, 2017 2:12 PM EDT (18:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:09AMMoonset 8:28PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 203 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
This afternoon..E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Mon night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft, subsiding to 7 to 10 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 203 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure over new england will light northeast winds today. Hurricane maria will move northward and pass well east of the carolina coast Monday through Wednesday. Hazardous winds and seas will develop this weekend and continue into next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Beach, NC
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location: 34.03, -77.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 231432
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1032 am edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the great lakes region will maintain warm and dry
weather over the carolinas through the weekend. Hurricane maria is
expected to move northward a couple of hundred miles east of the
carolina coast Monday through Wednesday. Hazardous boating
conditions, strong rip currents, and large surf are all expected to
develop. A cold front may reach the area Friday, bringing cooler
weather for late next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1030 am Saturday... A coastal flood advisory is now in effect
for a few hours in the downtown wilmington and battleship area for
minor impacts associated with high tide early this afternoon. The
next high tide is not projected to have as large a tidal range, but
thresholds could be met again with tomorrow's high tide in the early
afternoon.

Previous discussion... Fog stratus along the coastal counties will
continue to erode with strong insolation today. Low pressure remains
off the jersey shore while a ridge of high pressure from the great
lakes will dominate the area weather today with a rather dry column
expected to be in place through tonight. At h5 heights will continue
to slowly increase as some bridging occurs between the ridge NE of
maria and the large subtropical ridge extending the plains, ms
valley, great lakes, and into new england. This pattern will keep
the unsettled weather primarily far south southwest of this part of
the carolinas. No major changes were made to the current forecast.

The threat for strong rip currents will continue as swells from
maria impact the surf zone.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 300 am Saturday... Closed 500 mb high pressure centered
over pennsylvania on Sunday will bridge across to the bermuda
high on Monday. This "bridging" process is occurring earlier
and more strongly than models were thinking several days ago,
and this has led to a westward trend in the predicted path of
hurricane maria as it moves northward. Where over the past
several days the storm was expected to follow 70 or 71 degrees
longitude as it passed by the carolina coast, we're now thinking
73 or perhaps even 74 degrees longitude is more likely.

The 500 mb ridge to our north will help sustain a subsidence
inversion between 4000-6000 feet agl Sunday that will lower to
3000-4000 feet on Monday. The stable and dry air aloft will help
to keep weather conditions dry across the area both days,
although it's possible a few shallow maritime showers could
push onshore into the CAPE fear area by Monday night,
particularly if maria moves as far west as some of the latest
models are suggesting. Early morning low stratus is also a good
possibility in this pattern.

Despite two days of northeast flow 850 mb temps shouldn't fall
appreciably from where we've been over the past few days,
remaining in the +15c to +17c range. Our forecast highs range
from 83-86 near the coast to 86-88 both days. Overnight lows
generally 65-70, warmest at the beaches.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... Hurricane maria will be slowly making its
way north well off the coast of the carolinas through the first
half of the week. Expected impacts will be dangerous surf and
an elevated rip current risk from long period (15 sec) swells.

This swell energy will translate into breaking waves as high as
10 to 15 feet along the beaches of new hanover and pender
counties, and 6 to 10 feet along the beaches of brunswick, horry
and georgetown counties into Wednesday. The swell energy should
begin to ease late Wednesday, but dangerous surf and an
elevated rip current risk will likely continue into Friday.

Northeast to north winds will be breezy along the coast, and
gust occasionally into the 20-30 mph range by Tuesday-
Wednesday. It will be a tough call at this point to determine
how much peripheral moisture from maria will affect the area,
however it is reasonable to expect for the ilm cwa, that SE nc
will have the best chance for precipitation based on the current
forecast track of maria. The highest pops, which will still
remain less than 30% at this time, will be Tuesday into
Wednesday, before the cyclone gets picked up by the westerlies
on Thursday as indicated by both the GFS and ecmwf.

Upper level ridging and subsidence west of the hurricane will
likely result in a sharp sky cover gradient and temperatures
remaining a few degrees above normal through the week.

Aviation 11z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 11z... Fairly widespread low stratus and fog blankets the
area this morning, particularly inland from the coast. This
moisture is quite thin and should burn off quickly, withVFR
conditions developing around 13z. The remainder of the day
should feature excellent aviation weather with mainly clear
skies and light northeast winds. Deep vertical mixing should
develop some shallow cumulus clouds with bases around 4000 feet
by noon, rising to 5000 feet later this afternoon. Clear skies
and light winds overnight may develop a little fog again late
tonight, but coverage should be much less than we are currently
experiencing.

Extended outlook... MainlyVFR conditions through the period with
the exception of possible MVFR ifr conditions due to low clouds
and fog each morning, mainly between 08z-12z.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Saturday... A n-ne fetch is in place as high pressure
ridges southward across the coastal waters with speeds around 10
knots. Meanwhile, swells from maria will continue to affect the
waters with seas in the 4-6 ft range. Although the dominant wave
period is 12-13 seconds the swells combined with the current
during times with a falling tide will create steep wave and
hazardous wave conditions in near inlet entrances. Small craft
advisory will remain in place through the period.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 915 am Saturday... 1021 mb high pressure over the eastern
great lakes on Sunday will move off the new england coast by
Monday. Models have shifted farther west over the 24 hours with
hurricane maria's track, now expected to move northward along
73 or 74 degrees west longitude next week. That's a good 100
miles closer to the north carolina coast than our thoughts were
this time last night, and could bring more of the peripheral
winds from maria's west side to the area. Gusts as early as
Sunday could reach 25 knots, and a small craft advisory has been
extended out through Wednesday for increasing northeasterly
winds and for very large wave heights, particularly north and
east of CAPE fear where combined seas as large as 12 feet could
start showing up within 20 miles of the beaches by Sunday
evening.

Long term Tuesday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Based on the latest forecast track for
maria, northerly winds will peak Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with 20 to 25 knots north of CAPE fear. South of CAPE fear, a 15
to 20 knot range can be expected. Expect small craft advisory
conditions through the entire period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... High rip current risk until 8 pm this evening for scz054-056.

Nc... High rip current risk until 8 pm this evening for ncz106-
108-110.

Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
ncz107.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for amz250-
252-254-256.

Near term... Srp
short term... Tra
long term... Crm
aviation... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 9 mi88 min E 4.1 82°F 1018 hPa74°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi125 min NE 9.7 G 12 78°F 80°F1017 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi44 min 80°F4 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi43 min E 9.9 G 11 78°F 82°F1016 hPa
WLON7 14 mi43 min 89°F 78°F1016.5 hPa
41108 22 mi43 min 81°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi65 min NE 9.7 G 14 78°F 80°F1016.9 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 34 mi65 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 81°F 81°F1016.8 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 42 mi33 min NNE 9.7 G 14 80°F 82°F1016.3 hPa71°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi83 minNNW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F67°F60%1016.9 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC17 mi80 minVar 310.00 miFair86°F68°F55%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE5E3SE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N7N6N6N5SE5
1 day agoS5S5CalmS4SW4NE8SW6W4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4N3CalmCalmN3N4E7E5SE8
2 days agoSW5SW9SW7SW7SW5SW4SW4SW4SW4SW3CalmNW3W3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmW4W4NW5NW3S3SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
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Sat -- 04:01 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:26 AM EDT     5.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:36 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:45 PM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.82.61.40.60.30.61.32.43.64.65.15.14.53.42.21.10.50.50.91.82.83.84.34.5

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:15 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:58 AM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:41 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.23.72.92.11.40.80.30.51.52.73.74.34.54.23.52.61.91.20.60.51.12.33.33.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.