Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:14PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 6:52 AM EDT (10:52 UTC) Moonrise 1:31PMMoonset 1:45AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 312 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt late this morning, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..N winds 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day, then showers and tstms likely through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 312 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will remain in the region through tonight. A weak cold front will drop into the area Thursday, slow down and dissipate over the area late Friday. High pressure will return to the waters on Saturday and Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Beach, NC
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location: 34.03, -77.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 230700
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
300 am edt Wed may 23 2018

Synopsis
A weak cold front approaching from the north will produce a
greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms today and on
Thursday. The front will dissipate by Friday. Low pressure
developing across the gulf of mexico will bring tropical
moisture northward and help fuel a higher probability of showers
and thunderstorms with heavy rain across the eastern carolinas
Sunday and into early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Wednesday... Expect an active day regarding showers and
thunderstorms as gradual height falls, a very moist column and a
cold front slipping south work in tandem. I am liking the guidance
trend of showing mostly sea breeze air mass showers and isolated
thunder later this morning and early afternoon. More organized
activity appears to develop later in the afternoon from north to
south with the added assist from the front or more likely an outflow
boundary emanating from early convection to the north with the
front. We are still advertising likely pops from late morning on.

Regarding severe potential, plenty of CAPE but shear is a little
light. Flooding could pose a threat especially along the coast where
plenty of rain has fallen in the past few days and somewhat sluggish
storm motions. Activity could persist through the overnight hours,
but should trend downward somewhat. The met guidance has been
spectacular with temperatures and opted for these numbers almost
verbatim.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 300 am Wednesday... A weak cold front will be in close
proximity Thu and should become ill-defined to our S by fri. An
area of high pressure will briefly nose into the area from the
n, moving progressively offshore late in the period. An upper
trough will lift out Thu followed by a building ridge Fri and
fri night.

Precipitable water values will only drop very modestly as we
move from Thu into Fri with slightly more drying noted later fri
and Fri night. Given a front will be slowly dissolving across
the area as it struggles to advance southward, it will be
difficult to refrain from including at least some risk for
showers and thunderstorms. Moisture profiles show the moisture
depth decreasing, especially later in the forecast period.

Will show chance to likely pops Thu and this activity is expected
to lessen significantly or end with nightfall. Then on fri, will
include mainly slight chance small chance for convection, mainly
across south carolina. Expect the convection Fri to be mainly
diurnally driven.

High temps will be near to slightly above normal for late may.

The beaches will be coolest as onshore flow prevents them from
rising above the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... A baggy upper level trough across the
lower mississippi valley and gulf of mexico will become better
defined Saturday and Sunday. Upper ridges building across the
pacific coast of mexico and out over the western atlantic
between the bahamas and bermuda will help to spin this feature
up. A surge of caribbean moisture very similar to what we saw
last weekend will be drawn northward in the deep southerly flow
between this upper trough and the offshore ridge, and this
could lead to another significant rainfall event Sunday into
Monday. The latest wpc QPF outlook for just Sunday and Monday is
around 1.5 inches across our area, with forecast 7-day totals
of 2-3 inches.

Latest models show there will probably be some sort of low
pressure development across the gulf of mexico late this week,
but fsu cyclone phase diagrams show only the canadian
developing a significant warm core aloft. The 12z ECMWF (not
currently part of the fsu website) shows the cyclone keeping a
pronounced gradient in 1000-500 mb thickness above the surface
low, implying subtropical characteristics at best. The GFS is
the farthest east with its low pressure development across
florida on Sunday, while other guidance is westward. While not
ruling out anything just yet, it's expected the low will remain
too far west for any direct impacts on the carolinas, but
enhanced southerly flow should help enhance our rainfall
potential Sunday and Monday when my highest rainfall chances
(50-70 percent) are currently forecast.

A warm day Saturday when there will be more sunshine and lower
shower chances. Highs should reach the mid to upper 80s inland,
several degrees cooler near the coast. Temperatures should top
out in the lower 80s Sunday, and lower to mid 80s Monday and
Tuesday. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the period
are evidence of the tropical airmass we'll have in place.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 06z... Local radar is mostly quiet this morning and is
expected to remain so until later in the day when heating
commences. Overall expect a similar morning to yesterday with
some tempo MVFR br developing within overallVFR conditions.

Good coverage of showers and thunderstorms expected later today
but confidence is not quite high enough to warrant anything
other than vcts. The 12 and certainly 18 z package may have
just enough confidence on near term trends to better pinpoint.

Extended outlook... The potential for MVFR tempo ifr will
increase late Wed thur as a cold front drops across the area
and again during the weekend as tropical moisture returns.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Wednesday... Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will be
in place for most of the day across the waters. Some increase
in speeds to 15-20 knots is expected this evening with enhancement
of low level jetting especially across the southern waters. A
west to even northwest flow develops late tonight into early
Thursday morning as a front or arguably outflow pushes across
the waters. Significant seas remain in a 2-4 foot range.

Short term Thursday through Friday night ...

as of 300 am Wednesday... A weak cold front will be in close
proximity Thu and should become ill-defined to our S by fri. An
area of high pressure will briefly nose into the area from the
n, moving progressively offshore late in the period.

The wind direction Thu will shift from W and NW early to easterly.

Easterly winds will then hold into Fri before veering to SE fri
afternoon and S Fri night. Wind speeds will be no higher than
around 10 kt through the period. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft. A se
swell should gradually build across the waters late in the
period.

Long term Saturday through Sunday ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... Bermuda high pressure will remain well
off the southeast coast this weekend. By itself it would provide
a gentle southerly wind and typical summertime weather. However
models over the past few days have been showing the potential
for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to develop across the gulf
of mexico by Saturday. The GFS is the farthest east of any of
the models with its latest run showing a low reaching florida
on Sunday, while the ECMWF and canadian are farther west. While
it's too early to completely rule out impacts, our latest
forecast has south winds increasing to around 15 kt Sunday, with
a lengthening fetch of stronger winds extending down into the
bahamas. This could build seas up toward 6 feet, assuming our
wind forecast is correct.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Shk
short term... Rjd
long term... Tra
aviation... Shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 9 mi128 min W 1 72°F 1019 hPa69°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi45 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 72°F 73°F1017.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi53 min 72°F3 ft
WLON7 14 mi53 min 72°F 77°F1018.3 hPa (+0.4)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi53 min SSW 5.1 G 5.1 72°F 71°F1018.7 hPa (+0.4)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi45 min SW 12 G 16 74°F 75°F1018.8 hPa
SSBN7 33 mi113 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 33 mi45 min WSW 9.7 G 14 75°F 76°F1018.3 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 42 mi43 min SSW 9.7 G 14 75°F 76°F1018.9 hPa71°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi73 minSSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F71°F92%1018.6 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC17 mi60 minN 010.00 miOvercast72°F69°F91%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW5SW4S4S6S5S5S9
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1 day agoSW3W5SW7S6SW6SW4S7S4SW5SW6S6S7S5
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2 days agoS3S4S5S8S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
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Wed -- 02:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:07 AM EDT     4.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:27 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:54 PM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:53 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.53.54.34.64.43.62.61.40.5-0-00.51.42.53.44.14.33.93.22.11.10.50.30.6

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:32 AM EDT     4.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:29 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:16 PM EDT     4.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:50 PM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.82.83.6443.52.82.11.40.5-0.1-0.10.71.82.93.643.93.22.51.810.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.