Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 12:55 PM   Moonset 1:40 AM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 650 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. Fri - W winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight. Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Showers likely. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers likely. Sun - W winds 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and ne 1 ft at 2 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.Mon night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Tue night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 650 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Weak high pressure will keep wind light for the next few days. A cold front is due late in the weekend followed by a stronger push of high pressure that could require and advisory Monday.

FXUS62 KILM 161956 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 356 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Quiet overnight as high pressure drifts offshore. Rain chances will increase again this weekend as a new storm system advances eastward across the Southeast. As the low exits the Carolina coast Sunday, a cold front will push offshore bringing below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pretty quiet for most of the period with WV imagery showing considerable dry air filtering in behind yesterday's severe weather- causing upper lows. Surface dewpoints haven't lowered much so we could still see some fog develop towards daybreak but not with the vigor as this morning. The Pee Dee and possibly Grand Strand have the best chance for some lowered visibility.
A light return flow will moisten the atmosphere tomorrow bringing increasing cloud cover all day. A midday shortwave will at least have opportunity to touch off isolated convection that may or not become deep based upon how weak the progged instability stays. Weak WAA will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s Friday after seasonable temperatures tonight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Warm front will lift north of the area Friday night. Poor saturation ahead of the warm front will keep showers isolated Friday night into early Saturday. Southwesterly flow will bring Gulf moisture into the region by early Saturday and shower chances will increase with the deepening saturation. An approaching shortwave will combine with isentropic lift and marginal instability to create widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. During the afternoon, an approaching cold front will expand the coverage of showers and storms. Marginal instability and weak shear could produce a damaging wind gust or two in the stronger storms on Saturday afternoon. Around an inch of rain is forecast with higher amounts likely where convective training occurs. Flash flooding and heavy rain may become the dominant threat.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper low will maintain unsettled weather on Sunday. As a developing surface low just offshore pushes a cold front southward through the area. Mid level lapse rates and warm air south of the front will likely lift along the front and create another period of showers and thunderstorms. The severe threat on Sunday is low, but a continued deluge of rain with previously saturated soils will prolong the flooding rain threat.

Surface low continues to develop offshore on Monday. A thin layer of saturation and cooler temperatures may promote a few light showers, especially early Monday. High temperatures with clouds and persistent northerly winds will be in the low to mid 70s.

A few lingering showers along the coast early Tuesday should be overcome by dry air advection. It will be worth mentioning the potential for lingering cloud cover as a subsidence inversion aloft traps some low level moisture. Upper 70s are expected in clouds and northerly flow. A few ambitious sites may see highs at 80. A quick warmup is anticipated on Wednesday and Thursday as low pressure exits the region and the next cold front approaches from the west.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR expected for most of the TAF cycle with light westerly or variable winds. The exception will be the possibility of some predawn fog that could drop VSBY as low as 1 SM. Solutions vary but the one most favored at this time somewhat resembles continuity, not so much where fog and stratus developed this morning but rather where it persisted the longest. This would be a narrow strip across SC that would hit FLO and perhaps the Myrtles.

Extended Outlook... VFR conditions to dominate Thursday night through Friday. The next system with potential periodic flight restrictions will affect the area this weekend into Monday.

MARINE
Through Friday... Wind will remain light and waves small. The former will be caused by a weak pressure gradient, the latter by the absence of swell leaving behind only the diminutive wind wave. (backswell from the storm off NE coast will not come this far west).

Friday Night through Tuesday Night... Low pressure will develop late Friday night into Saturday as winds turn southerly and increase. Showers and storms develop on Saturday and will likely continue through the weekend. A cold front will drop southward on Sunday as low pressure develops off the coast. Winds turn northerly late Sunday night behind the low and increase to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. SCA conditions are possible as this low develops off the coast through Tuesday. Showers and storm chances continue until the low finally starts to move offshore into Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Wilmington Beach
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Thu -- 02:31 AM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:59 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:16 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wilmington Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

Campbell Island
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Thu -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:16 AM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:01 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:58 PM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:13 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Campbell Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

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