Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 3:22 AM   Moonset 3:28 PM

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FXUS62 KCAE 042036 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 436 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the area and will continue through early next week with showers and thunderstorms possible each day. Dry conditions should prevail for midweek, with a return of showers and storms possible again by Friday.
Expect well above normal temperatures each day.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Update...
Decreasing cloudiness noted over the western forecast area (FA), with convective coverage currently limited to the eastern FA.
Adjusted POPs and temps to account for current and expected near term conditions. Latest guidance indicates some convective development possible over portions of the central FA along a low level convergence boundary in the near term. Later tonight, as an upper impulse approaches, additional development possible elsewhere, favoring the northern FA late tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Sunday and Sunday night: An upper shortwave is forecast to continue trekking eastward through the day Sunday and is expected to be offshore by Sunday night. At the surface, high pressure offshore is expected to drift eastward, but still aid in keeping plenty of moisture in the area, with PWAT values around 1.5". A relative low in shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast due to the shortwave passing to our east. However, a weaker shortwave is anticipated to move through the region, resulting in scattered shower and thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon. With weaker support, we're not expecting the activity to be as widespread as today or Monday. Temperatures are expected to be near average once again during the day, but relatively warm overnight.

Monday and Monday night: Another shortwave is forecast to move across the area on Monday. This shortwave looks to be a bit more pronounced, leading to an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity for the day, especially in the afternoon and evening.
The upper air dynamics are anticipated to be similar to today, limiting the severe threat. PWATs are anticipated to increase some again, which could lead to locally heavy rainfall again.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The upper shortwave is expected to move out of the area Tuesday, taking the precipitation along with it. That said some scattered showers are possible during the morning before they exit the area. Broad ridging then builds back over the area, which will aid in a midweek warm up. Temperatures are forecast to warm to well above average by Wednesday and Thursday. A larger scale trough is anticipated to move toward and through the region for the end of the week, bringing a cold front along with it. Model guidance does differ in the timing of its passage, which would affect how warm we get on Friday. Regardless of the timing, chances of precipitation returns with this system.

AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Most of the earlier convection has shifted northeast of terminals with VFR conditions returning to all terminals and expected to continue through 00z. Some additional showers or possible thunderstorms may return overnight after 03z but will address this potential in the 00z forecast. Generally light southeast to southerly winds through sunset with VFR conditions expected. Abundant low level moisture in place will provide increased potential for stratus/fog development again overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Fog and stratus possible through at least Monday with abundant low level moisture in place. Showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible Sunday through Tuesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

Jamestown Bridge
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Sat -- 04:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:37 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:36 AM EDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:05 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:08 PM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jamestown Bridge, Santee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Pimlico
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Sat -- 03:02 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:38 AM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:10 PM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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Columbia, SC,