Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 10:08 PM   Moonset 7:00 AM

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FXUS62 KCAE 261520 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1120 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
Ridge of high pressure will be over the coastal areas today as a weak front will be moving west of the area leading to a slight chance of showers in the northern CSRA and western Midlands.
Fair Saturday through Monday with a gradual warming trend. A weak front is expected to bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday through Thursday, mainly northern and eastern areas.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Surface high pressure is ridging down the East Coast today as an upper level ridge moves over the Southeast. Dry mid-levels and a subsidence inversion will hinder convective development however there could be a few sprinkles today in the western and northern Midlands. Any rainfall amounts would be very light, if measurable at all. With low level easterly, onshore flow we will see low clouds dissipate through the morning. It will warm up quickly in the afternoon with highs in the low 70s across the northern Midlands where cloud cover will hang in longer.
Elsewhere expect highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees due to the greater insolation.

Ridging aloft and easterly low level flow should set up a similar situation tonight with low clouds developing along the coastal plain and spreading into central SC and the CSRA. A stronger low level jet tonight points to stratus favored over fog. With overcast or mostly cloudy skies expect mild temps overnight with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Upper ridging is expected to remain over the region through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to be centered off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. This high is anticipated to weaken and drift south. The combination of ridging aloft and surface high centered to our east is expected to lead to fair weather over the weekend and start a gradual warming trend. Some guidance is showing a subtle boundary working its way around the surface high, which can mainly be seen in brief lowering of PWATS behind it. This feature could bring showers near the area Sunday afternoon, but it looks like any shower activity will remain offshore. That said, the Euro and GEFS ensembles are showing a low chance (~10-20%) for precipitation associated with this, mainly in the CSRA. In contrast, the NBM is showing 0% chance of rain on Sunday.
Forecast soundings indicate there would need to be some sort of forcing strong enough to provide enough lift to get showers in the area, which I'm not confident the boundary will be.
Therefore, have decided to keep PoPs below 10%.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Upper ridging and surface high pressure remain in place to start the work week, allowing for a warming trend to continue as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s. A shortwave and associated frontal boundary are forecast to move through the region around midweek, bringing a slight chance of showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Despite the potential showers, warm temperatures are anticipated to continue. A deeper trough approaches the area toward the end of the long term period, which looks to give us a better chance of more widespread rainfall late next week into the weekend. That said, it's still several days away so confidence is on the lower side still.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through the morning and into mid-day, we will see ceilings lift with sites returning to VFR by 18Z. Easterly low level flow will continue to bring additional moisture into the area through the 24 hour TAF period. This should favor another round of stratus tonight which develops along the coastal plain and pushes into the terminals in the morning. This should bring another round of ceiling restrictions on Saturday morning. IFR/LIFR visibility restrictions are not as likely given the 25 kt LLJ which is stronger than last night. Ceilings should lift through Saturday morning but could remain MVFR through 18Z. Winds through the period will be easterly from 5 to 10 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Early morning fog or stratus will be possible through the period. Slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday on.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

Pimlico
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Fri -- 01:18 AM EDT     1.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:20 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:26 PM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:09 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Jamestown Bridge
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Fri -- 02:16 AM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:55 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:24 PM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:44 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jamestown Bridge, Santee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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Columbia, SC,