Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Parker, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 7:24PM Wednesday August 16, 2017 10:55 PM MST (05:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:49AMMoonset 3:00PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parker, AZ
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location: 34.05, -114.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 170416
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
916 pm mst Wed aug 16 2017

Update Updated aviation discussion.

Synopsis
Relatively dry conditions will persist across the desert southwest
through Saturday. After a brief period of below normal
temperatures, a warming trend will continue into the weekend. Moist
monsoonal flow will return to arizona over the weekend bringing an
increase in thunderstorm chances. Afternoon and evening storms will
remain in the forecast through the middle of next week along with
near normal temperatures.

Discussion
The afternoon WV imagery looks more like mid september versus mid
august as stronger westerly flow has descended equatorward through a
vast majority of the conus. Within the southwest, the
midtropospheric u-wind component is a good 2 normalized standard
deviations above normal which has scoured all quality moisture
necessary for good deep convection away from the state. 12z regional
sounding data sampled pwats general in a 0.50-0.75 inch range; and
ktwc measured 0.61 inches ranks well below the 10% percentile
historically for this time of year (and not terribly far from daily
record lows).

Last night, dewpoints around the phoenix metro actually fell into the
upper 20s and dewpoints this low are rare in august; the last time
they were this low this time of year was in 2013. While current
dewpoints are still hovering the lower middle 40s, some 30s will be
likely by sunset and the dry air along with the clear skies will
result in favorable radiational cooling conditions across much of
arizona. Essentially a persistence type forecast tonight with lows
falling into the delightful 60s and 70s.

As negative height anomalies lift into the plains and upper midwest,
heights thicknesses will continue to increase slowly and steadily
through Friday. While temperatures will remain slightly below normal
tomorrow, at or above normal temperatures will materialize
thereafter as the subtropical ridge migrates westward into texas.

With h5 heights sitting steady around 590-592dm, temperatures will
remain well below record levels.

The approach of another weak trough in the eastern pacific will
ultimately herald southerly flow and return of the monsoon moisture
to the region. However, there is uncertainty in the extended period
with regard to the precise timing of the moisture return. The latest
operational GFS suggests that moisture associated with a convective
complex in sonora could be drawn northward as early as Saturday,
while the ecwmf is a bit slower. It's also worth noting that the
operational GFS is an outlier when compared to other GEFS ensemble
members. Forecast is instead weighted towards the slower ecmwf,
which implies a return to isolated storms (and the threat of blowing
dust) beginning Sunday and continuing through the middle of next
week.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
weak northwesterly winds are affecting central northern portions
of the phoenix metro, while winds are nearly calm at kiwa this
evening. Expected drainage winds to become more prominent after
06-07z at area terminals and persist into the mid-afternoon Thursday.

Clear skies amidst a dry air mass will keep aviation concerns
minimal through Thursday evening.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
west winds will prevail into early Thursday morning across kipl
and most of southeast california, before weakening and becoming
more variable in direction at all sites through late Thursday.

Clear skies will result in minimal aviation concerns.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Saturday through Wednesday:
better moisture will finally begin to seep into the arizona
districts this weekend where rain chances will start increasing
again. Higher terrain areas of gila county will have the best chance
of storms over the weekend, with modest chances working into lower
elevations of arizona early next week. With the increasing moisture,
minimum afternoon humidity levels will increase back to a 15-30%
range with good overnight recovery. Except near the influence of
thunderstorms, wind speeds will be rather light.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Visit us on facebook, twitter, and at weather.Gov phoenix
discussion... Mo hirsch
aviation... Rogers
fire weather... Mo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Blythe, Blythe Airport, CA37 mi64 minSSW 610.00 miFair91°F33°F13%1007.9 hPa

Wind History from BLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S8S13S11S8S7S7W4NW4CalmSE64E3SE8S7
G14
S9SE5S12S11SE8S10S5SW5SW6
1 day agoSE6S14
G18
W9S9SW9SW11S8W4SE4S11SW14SW10SW15
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2 days agoS10S16S14S16SW10SW6SW10SE5SE7S9S13S14SW14
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SW20SW19SW17SW19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.