Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Parker, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 7:44PM Sunday May 28, 2017 10:49 PM MST (05:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:32AMMoonset 10:51PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parker, AZ
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location: 34.05, -114.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 290310
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
809 pm mst Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
Very typical memorial day holiday weather will continue with
afternoon high temperatures climbing into the 90s and lower 100s.

Temperatures will peak on Monday and Tuesday before some cooling
starts during the middle of the week. Some scattered mountain storms
will also be possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

Discussion
Dry westerly flow aloft with unseasonably high atmospheric height
and thickness values will continue cover the forecast area,
southeast ca to south central az through Tuesday. Afternoon
temperatures will remain above normal. The only concern is return
moisture, or northward flowing moisture from southern new mexico
into far eastern az for a threat of high based afternoon
thunderstorms mainly Tuesday in the white mountains bordering
eastern southern gila county, or portions of our forecast area.

Details can be found in the previous discussion below. Otherwise no
short term updates necessary.

Previous discussion 245 pm mst...

early this afternoon we were looking at somewhat of a split-flow
pattern across the west with a high amplitude upper ridge over the
pacific northwest and weak cyclonic flow across arizona and
northwest mexico. The southern branch was giving dry westerly flow
to the area; IR imagery at 2 pm showed sunny skies area-wide. The
morning plot data showed little change in 500mb heights but the low
levels (850mb) temps had actually climbed a few degrees celsius over
the past 24 hours. As such, under full Sun with good mixing high
temperatures today were running 5-6 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago
and phoenix had already reached 100 degrees.

For the early portion of the week, Monday into Tuesday, ensemble and
operational guidance remains very consistent in slowly bringing a
weak baggy trof towards the far southern ca and northern baja coast.

This weak feature starts to back the flow ahead of it, importing
deeper moisture north into new mexico and the high terrain of far
eastern arizona. Forecast thermal profiles suggest potential for
isolated high based convection across the white mountains and into
portions of southern gila county starting Tuesday; due in part to
the high based nature of the storms they will bring very little rain
and any lightning that develops has the potential to cause new fire
starts. Of course, this could be a concern. GEFS ensemble members
are virtually all in agreement that any QPF will stay east of globe
early in the week and this supports the idea of the dry lighting
threat. The weak approaching trof and associated southerly component
to the low level winds will allow the low levels to warm another
degree or two raising high temps on Monday another few degrees. This
will probably be the hottest day this work week with phoenix
expected to climb to around 106. Slight cooling will start in on
Tuesday but the hotter deserts will remain above the triple digit
mark.

On Wednesday, a stronger upper trof moving into central california
starts to push the weaker baja trof off to the east and brings a
drier west flow into the western deserts. But increasing
uvv dynamics will act on the lingering moisture over the eastern
mountains to continue the high based thunderstorm threat. Again,
most of the convection should be confined to the eastern rim, white
mountains and high terrain of southern gila county (mostly east of
globe) and it will stay high based. GEFS qpf ensemble members mostly
keep precip east of the area so any storms Wednesday
afternoon evening will pose a continued dry lightning threat.

Cooling of the airmass associated with the approaching trof from the
west will lead to a continued slight cooling trend at the surface;
high temps over the hotter deserts will lower into the upper 90s to
around 100.

Confidence in this weather pattern for the first half of the week
including the threat for high based storms to our east is rather
high. Pop trends have changed very little and continue to mirror
trends from the latest naefs ensemble pop guidance. The rest of the
discussion is from the previous mid shift.

Somewhat better confidence exists regarding the forecast for the
latter half of the week. The operational 00z GFS still remains a
more aggressive outlier with respect to lower h5 heights and height
falls enveloping the forecast area. The 00z ECMWF and gem continue
to more closely mirror the ensemble mean depicting a weaker, more
convoluted, and messy cyclonic flow persisting through much of the
week. There is some limited chance residual moisture hangs into the
state yielding more mountain convection though almost all guidance
relegates better moisture into new mexico. Otherwise with a
preference towards somewhat higher heights aloft, temperature
forecasts towards the end of the week were weighted more towards the
median and upper half of the guidance envelop.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl, and
southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
dry westerly flow aloft will produce clear skies and light wind
under 8 knots through 22z mon. Winds will favor a south to southeast
direction through 19z mon, becoming south to southwest after 22z
mon.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Wednesday through Sunday:
near to slightly above normal temperatures will last through the
weekend. The threat for isolated thunderstorms with very little
measurable rainfall will continue into Wednesday and possibly
Thursday promoting a dry lightning threat for high terrain areas of
eastern arizona. Drier air will work into the area starting Friday
ending the threat for any thunderstorms. Winds will be breezy during
the daytime hours Wednesday with lighter winds through the rest of
the period resulting in only occasional afternoon breeziness
Thursday through Sunday. Minimum relative humidities will remain low
through the period mostly dropping into a 10 to 20% range each
afternoon.

Spotter information statement
Spotter reports should not be needed this week.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Visit us on facebook, twitter, and at weather.Gov phoenix
discussion... Vasquez CB mo
aviation... Kuhlman
fire weather... Kulhman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Blythe, Blythe Airport, CA37 mi57 minWSW 1210.00 miFair91°F26°F9%1007.3 hPa

Wind History from BLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS33NW6NW4CalmNW3SW4N6N4CalmCalmE4CalmSE3335S12SE10S7S7S6SW10W12
1 day agoE7SE10
G16
S14S9S7S12S9SE5CalmCalmW5SW4SE5CalmS55SE6NE9S53E5W7SW53
2 days agoSW16SE12S7S11S12S18S14S13S9S12S17S12S15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.