Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Breeze, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:32PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 7:02 PM EDT (23:02 UTC) Moonrise 7:15AMMoonset 8:26PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 310 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 1 am edt Thursday...
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft...subsiding to 3 ft near shore after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming se 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft... Building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft...then 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 10 kt...becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming S 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft...building to 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 310 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A ridge of high pressure will move eastward across the area tonight, then offshore Thursday. Low pressure moving into the great lakes will drag a cold front through the carolinas late Fri. High pressure will follow for the weekend, but another frontal system will approach from the west late Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Breeze, NC
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location: 34.08, -77.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 291904
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
304 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
Relatively cooler and drier high pressure will build in from
the north into Thursday then shift offshore Thursday night.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday as warmer and
more humid air returns ahead of an approaching cold front. The
cold front will sweep offshore late Friday night. Some of the
thunderstorms may be strong to severe Friday. The weekend should
be dry as high pressure takes hold. Then early next week, a
southern stream system will again bring the risk for showers and
thunderstorms.

Near term /through Thursday/
As of 3 pm Wednesday... Surface high pressure extending south
across the eastern great lakes and into the carolinas is coincident
with a deep mid and upper level ridge. All of these ridging
features will traverse the area from west to east overnight.

Precipitable water values in the 0.8 to 0.9 inch range tonight are
in the 60-75th percentile for this time of year, indicating this is
not a particularly dry airmass. Plenty of daytime cumulus that has
developed west of the seabreeze should dissipate this evening,
however enough moisture should remain trapped beneath the subsidence
inversion up around 6500 feet agl that I don't think we'll see cloud-
free skies for any significant length of time. Given the presence of
this moisture and also low-level winds expected to not go calm
tonight due to the distant position of the surface high, I have
bumped forecast lows up by a degree or two to 54-57 over NE south
carolina, and 50-55 over SE north carolina.

As the deep layer ridge moves offshore Thursday, winds will veer
more southerly above the surface. Gulf moisture arriving in the 850-
700 mb layer during the afternoon could become thick enough to yield
a few showers back in the south carolina pee dee region before
sunset. This should not be a substantial precipitation event during
the day however -- that will hold off until later Thursday night
into Friday. Thursday's highs should range from 70-74 inland, with
mid to upper 60s within 5-10 miles of the coast.

Short term /Thursday night through Friday night/
As of 3 pm Wednesday... Southern stream shortwave moving across the
mississippi valley Thu night into Fri will lift a warm front
across the area early in the period. Front is likely to be
accompanied by showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm but
strong storms seem less likely given the evening timing and
weak dynamics. Best chance for widespread rainfall still appears
to be between 09z and 15z fri, prior to the cold front moving
into the area. Although the timing is less than ideal there will
be an abundance of deep moisture, precipitable water values
rise from around 1" Thu evening to 1.5" Fri morning, and plenty
of forcing. Height falls and low level convergence ahead of the
front should help produce deeper convection, which will have a
40-50 kt low level jet to tap into. The biggest limiting factor
will be the lack of surface based instability given the early
morning timing. Cannot rule out strong or severe storms but at
this point the potential is on the low side, hence spc's
marginal risk. Do think heavy rain is almost guaranteed for a
couple hours Fri morning and will continue with inherited
categorical pop. Southerly flow in the wake of the warm front
thu night and the first part of Fri will keep temps above climo.

Lows will be in the lower 60s Fri morning with highs around 80
fri afternoon.

Cold front pushes across the area during Fri with guidance showing a
rather impressive dry slot wrapping around the system aloft. Low
level moisture will linger into early afternoon and may support some
light rain/showers, but the significant precip should end by noon.

Although the cold front passes later Fri there is not much in the
way of cold air behind the front and lows Fri night will still end
up about 10 degrees above climo.

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/
As of 300 am Wednesday... In the wake of this system, dry weather
and above normal temps are expected for the weekend as mid-
level ridging builds across the area and surface high pressure
to our N ridges s. Attention then will turn westward as next
potent southern stream system along the gulf coast Sun night
lifts to the NE and drags a warm front to the n. This will again
bring deep moisture into the carolinas, and with that, showers
and thunderstorms early next week. Timing differences have
decreased slightly and it looks like the greatest risk for
showers and thunderstorms will be Mon night. Showers and
thunderstorms should be increasing from the SW and W mon
afternoon with the risk decreasing from W to E during the day
tue as broad low pressure consolidates offshore of the mid-
atlantic states Tue and Tue night. Drier air will work into the
eastern carolinas during wed.

Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/
As of 18z... Northeast to east surface winds will advect in a
shallow layer of atlantic moisture this afternoon. Shallow
convective cloud bases with bases 3500-5000 feet agl will
overspread the area, with the possible exception of right along
the coast where cooler, more stable air behind the seabreeze
could help keep skies clear.

Although most models keep the flight categoryVFR overnight, the
12z NAM is a significant exception, developing a dense layer of
low stratus across a portion of the eastern carolinas after 06z.

Uncertainty with the amount of low level moisture has kept me
from including this in the forecast for now.

Extended outlook... Flight category restrictions are probable in
showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night through Friday.

Marine
Near term /through Thursday/...

as of 3 pm Wednesday... A ridge of high pressure extends
southward across the great lakes and into the eastern carolinas.

This ridge should move eastward and off the coast late tonight
and early Thursday morning. With the center of the high so
distant from the carolinas we will not have a period of light
winds. In fact, wind speeds will increase to a hefty "moderate"
this evening: 15-20 kt with seas building to 4-5 feet away from
the coast. A 'small craft should exercise caution' headline will
be appended to the forecast through midnight north of cape
fear.

Thursday as the ridge moves farther off the east coast wind
directions should veer more southeasterly with time with speeds
averaging 15 kt or less.

Short term /Thursday night through Friday night/...

as of 3 pm Wednesday... Onshore flow Thu night will become
southerly very early Fri as a warm front lifts north of the
waters. Gradient starts to tighten behind the front with
southwest flow increasing to around 20 kt by Fri morning.

Southwest flow remains a solid 20 kt Fri before passage of cold
front brings a slight reduction in the gradient, dropping
offshore flow to 10 to 15 kt late Fri night. Seas build thu
night in response to increasing southwest flow. At the start of
the period seas will run 2 to 4 ft but quickly build to 4 to 6
ft overnight, peaking in the 4 to 7 ft range later fri. Offshore
flow behind the exiting cold front will drop seas below 6 ft
around midnight. Anticipate at least a 12 to 18 hour stretch of
sca conditions during the period.

Long term /Saturday through Monday/...

as of 300 am Wednesday... Small craft advisory conditions
possible late on Mon and Mon night.

Low pressure will be intensifying south of new england sat
morning. Its attending cold front will be offshore by the start
of this forecast period. Low pressure will continue to intensify
as it moves E and then NE during the weekend. High pressure
centered across eastern canada will build south across the
carolina waters during the weekend with the ridge axis moving
offshore Sun night. Next in series of potent southern stream
systems will be approaching from the W on mon. Its attending
warm front is expected to move across the waters Mon night.

Nw winds will generally dominate Sat although an inverted
trough poking N may cause winds to back, especially across
southern waters ahead of reinforcing cold and dry push. Winds
late Sat night and Sun in the wake of this push will be ne. The
wind direction will veer to E later Sun afternoon and then ese
sun night. The wind direction will become SE during mon.

The highest wind speeds during this period are expected on mon
when they are expected to increase to 20 to 25 kt late day and
mon night. Wind speeds Sat through Sun night should be mainly 5
to 15 kt.

Seas will be 3 to 4 ft Sat morning, subsiding to mainly 2 to 3
ft Sat night and then 1 to 2 ft sun. There will be a tendency
for backswell to slow the slow the rate of subsiding seas
through the first part of the weekend. Expect seas will reverse
higher late Sun night and mon, possibly reaching small craft
advisory levels Mon night.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Tra
short term... Iii
long term... Rjd
aviation... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 6 mi78 min ESE 2.9 64°F 1017 hPa57°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi55 min E 9.7 G 16 61°F 59°F1017.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi34 min 59°F4 ft
WLON7 11 mi51 min 65°F 63°F1017 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi51 min E 8.9 G 9.9 61°F 62°F1016.5 hPa
41108 26 mi46 min 60°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi55 min ESE 18 G 25 65°F 74°F1016.9 hPa
SSBN7 35 mi93 min 2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi33 min ENE 18 G 21 67°F 74°F1016.9 hPa60°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC14 mi78 minE 10 G 1510.00 miFair66°F55°F68%1017.6 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi70 minESE 910.00 miFair66°F55°F68%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW9
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W8SW7NW4CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3N4N5NE3N4N7NE6E6NE9E8
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1 day agoS3CalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmS3S4S5SW4SW5SW5SW7SW5SW7
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2 days agoSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4S5S3SW7S6S6S5S7

Tide / Current Tables for Orton Point, North Carolina
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Orton Point
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Wed -- 05:13 AM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:50 AM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:26 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:02 PM EDT     5.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.33.32.21.30.3-0.3-01.12.73.94.54.64.33.52.41.40.5-0.2-0.10.92.544.85.1

Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:29 AM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:11 AM EDT     4.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:47 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:31 PM EDT     4.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.32.21.10.2-0.4-0.40.51.733.84.24.13.52.51.40.4-0.3-0.50.11.42.844.64.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.