Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 2:39 AM   Moonset 2:05 PM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 304 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Through 7 pm - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sat night - SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Sun - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.Tue night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wed night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 304 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Benign marine conditions continue this weekend into next week. A series of weak fronts will approach from the west and stall inland from the coast early next week, bringing a little better chance for showers and Thunderstorms.

FXUS62 KILM 031852 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 252 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend as due to several upper level disturbances and localized low pressure. High pressure will build overhead by Tuesday with well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late portions of next week. Rain chances increase towards the end of next week due to an approaching frontal system.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Persistent low level south-southeasterly flow will lead to another night of saturation near ground level. Best chance for fog, potentially dense, will be across the Cape Fear region and possibly parts of coastal northeast SC. Confidence in fog development decreases further inland as edge of mid/high level cloud deck will be across western parts of the CWA May be more low stratus inland vs the expected fog closer to the coast. Regardless, any fog/stratus will clear after sunrise.

Temps will be only slightly lower on Saturday, with highs in the low 80s. Main forecast problem in the near term is rain chances beginning midday Saturday and continuing through the day. There is going to be a rather sharp moisture gradient in the vicinity of I-95 during the day Saturday, with 1.6" PWAT to the west and near an inch at the coast. This is mainly due to rather dry mid levels around offshore ridge, with 20% RH at 700mb at the coast tomorrow afternoon. Current thinking is scattered storms (40-50% chance)
possible across western parts of the CWA beginning midday, with upper level impulses moving across from the SW around ridge offshore and trough to the NNW. How far inland that intrusion of mid level dry air gets will determine edge of best rain chances.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Pulses of shortwave energy overhead paired with localized lower pressure leads to shower/storm chances through the short term period. Sat night the coast could remain dry before moisture starts to recover late. The axis of better moisture will push into the area along with the shortwave Sun with continued chances for convection, particularly during the afternoon and along the sea breeze. The shortwave will move offshore Sun night with activity expected to wind down overnight. Another shortwave approaches Mon with greater precip chances with the addition of instability. Highs in the low to mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Rain chances continue through Tues where one last push of energy moves through aloft before ridging builds in for midweek with quiet weather. Under this ridge, highs will increase into the 90s with humid conditions. No heat advisory concerns with the current forecast. High temp records for Wilmington NC and Florence SC are a couple degrees above what is in the forecast for Wed and Thurs, so this heat will be something to keep an eye on. Rain chances return late Thurs through the end of the period with an approaching frontal system.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Currently VFR with scattered diurnal cumulus around 4-5 kft and intermittent high clouds. Tonight's forecast gets a bit tricky.
High confidence in visibility restrictions (along with low cigs)
at KILM overnight through sunrise, with potential for LIFR conditions. CRE and MYR will likely see fog overnight as well, though perhaps not as thick or long lasting as the Cape Fear region. Confidence is lower further inland as there may be some mid/high clouds moving in late tonight, and might see more stratus vs fog around dawn. Will see improvements after day break, with thunderstorm chances increasing some towards end of TAF period along I-95 corridor.

Extended Outlook...Scattered mainly diurnal convection will bring brief visibility restrictions in heavy rain Saturday through Monday, especially inland affecting KFLO and KLBT.
Lightning is also possible.

MARINE
Through Saturday...Benign marine conditions continue through Saturday courtesy of offshore high pressure. Seas linger in the 1-2 ft range tonight and tomorrow, combination of 1-2 ft SE wind wave and 1 ft E swell. South-southeast winds persist, predominantly less than 10 kts outside of localized sea breeze enhancement Saturday afternoon. May see some patchy fog close to the Cape Fear coastline early Saturday morning, but confidence is low on how low visibilities may get and how far offshore any fog may impact.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Flow around the Bermuda high will lead to SE to SW flow through the period. Sub-SCA conditions with wind speeds 10-15 kts and seas 2-3 ft increasing to 3-4 ft Wed with an increasing southerly wind wave and some long period swells from the E/NE.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Wilmington Beach
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Fri -- 03:38 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:06 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:10 PM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:34 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
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Wilmington Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

Reaves Point
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Fri -- 03:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:41 AM EDT     4.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:29 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:13 PM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:57 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
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Reaves Point, North Carolina, Tide feet

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