Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Breeze, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:06PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 1:55 PM EST (18:55 UTC) Moonrise 2:19PMMoonset 2:35AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 915 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Thu..SE winds 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
Thu night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers.
Fri..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 915 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure building in from the west will move off of the outer banks on Wednesday. Low pressure will intensify as it tracks across the southeast, moving northeast across the carolinas Thursday into Friday. High pressure will build over the waters next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Breeze, NC
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location: 34.08, -77.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 181627
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1125 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the carolinas through today,
then will move offshore Wednesday. Low pressure developing over
the deep south will bring another significant rainfall event
Thursday and Thursday night. Dry high pressure and seasonably
chilly temperatures are expected for the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Tuesday... Deep low pressure system off of the new
england coast will lift farther off to the northeast through
today as high pressure builds down from the upper great lakes
reaching the hatteras coast tonight. At the same time, an upper
ridge will move over the carolinas today, shifting farther east
and flattening out through tonight. This will produce an overall
quiet day with weakening gradient flow and plenty of dry air and
subsidence through most of the period. Winds slightly gusty this
morning as they shift from NW to N just near daybreak as the
high pushes a weak boundary south. The winds will veer around
further to the NE and E by tonight as the center of the
high becomes positioned north of local forecast area. The most
noticeable change this morning will be an almost 10 degree drop
in dewpoint temps and a cooler start to the day. Temps will be
near normal, starting out just below 40 and reaching into the
mid 50s to around 60, mainly over portions of sc. Expect plenty
of sunshine today with only a few wispy cirrus moving overhead
and a slightly cooler but light northerly flow.

By tonight, the upper ridge will shift east allowing for an
increase in high clouds by Wed morning. With the center of the
sfc high just north, the surface winds will take on an on shore
direction, but will be be very light, essentially calm through
most of the night. Although cirrus will gradually increase into
the morning, this should not interfere with decent radiational
cooling allowing temps to fall into the low to mid 30s.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 300 am Tuesday... High pressure begins to shift to the east on
Wednesday as a warm front approaches the carolinas Wednesday night
bringing warmer temperatures, increasing cloud cover, and return of
rain chances for Wednesday night into Thursday. Ample amounts of
moisture within the atmospheric column will lead to moderate to
heavy precipitation at times Thursday ahead of the surface
disturbance. Main instability should remain offshore, so not
expecting thunderstorms to be an issue through the short period.

High temperatures in the upper 50s will increase with the warm front
into the mid to upper 60s on Thursday, which is between 5 and 10
degrees above normal for december.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 300 am Tuesday... Rain chances continue Friday as surface low
pressure moves across the carolinas. Latest model trends are
hinting at a dry slot across the area early Friday, which will
provide a brief break from rainfall in the Friday morning time frame
before another round of rain showers approach for Friday afternoon
and evening. Conditions are expected to dry out by Saturday as the
low pressure system exits the region and high pressure returns.

With surface pressure gradients increasing with the passing
disturbance, expect breezy conditions on Friday and Saturday with
winds between 15 and 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible. Afternoon
high temperatures on Friday are expected to be warmer than average
with the warm front, but temperatures for the weekend and into next
week will return closer to normal in the mid to upper 50s as a cold
front moves through the carolinas.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 18z... High pressure will stay in control through most of the
forecast period. No aviation concerns through the overnight hours
with only cirrus expected. Wednesday, a weak coastal trough tries
to set up with possible scattered isolated showers along the coast.

AVFR stratocu ceiling is expected with mainly a light east
northeast wind.

Extended outlook... Unsettled weather Wednesday night through Friday
with a fairly strong system setting up. Potential for occasional
heavy showers Thursday through Friday morning. Expect brief ifr
conditions and windy in convection, particularly Thursday night.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Tuesday... Deep low pressure system off of the new
england coast will lift farther off to the northeast through
today as high pressure builds down from the upper great lakes
reaching the outer banks tonight. A push of cooler and drier air
will come this morning with a shift from NW to produce some
gusty northerly winds, especially out over the warmer gulf
stream waters in a well mixed marine layer. Overall expect
winds 10 to 15 kts most waters, but up to 20 kts over the outer
nc waters. Seas will generally be between 2 and 4 ft. Any
stronger winds will diminish as center of high pressure moves
closer overhead positioning itself just north of the waters with
northerly winds shifting around to become on shore and lighter
by Wed morning. This will allow seas to subside to less than 3
ft.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night ...

as of 300 am Tuesday... Quiet conditions Wednesday as high
pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern, but expect
waves between 4 and 6 feet into Thursday with onshore winds
between 15 and 20 kts over the offshore waters. Small craft may
encounter adverse conditions Thursday afternoon and evening.

Long term Friday through Saturday ...

as of 300 am Tuesday... Choppy seas expected with strong low
pressure system moving across the region with waves between 7
and 9 feet and sustained southwest winds between 20 and 30 kts
Friday. Conditions will improve somewhat Saturday, but waves
will still be on the order of 4 to 6 feet and west winds between
15 and 20 kts. High pressure returns for Sunday into early next
week with diminishing waves and winds offshore.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Rgz
short term... Mck
long term... Mck
aviation... 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi55 min 55°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi47 min ENE 9.7 G 16 49°F 55°F1020.1 hPa
WLON7 11 mi55 min 64°F 49°F1019.8 hPa (-1.3)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi55 min ENE 8.9 G 11 49°F 67°F1020.4 hPa (-0.9)
41108 26 mi55 min 58°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi47 min NE 14 G 19 53°F 66°F1019.7 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi47 min SE 12 G 14 52°F 55°F1019.8 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi45 min NNE 14 G 18 55°F 60°F1019.8 hPa41°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC14 mi75 minENE 510.00 miFair53°F38°F57%1020.7 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi62 minNNE 910.00 miFair55°F33°F44%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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SW9W6W5W4SW3W4W5W4W5W3NW3N4N3N4N5N5N4N4NE6E7NE7NE7
1 day agoSW12SW10
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W9SW5W4W5W5W5W7W8W6NW6NW5NW4CalmCalmCalmNW4NW5W5NW4NW4NW7SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:35 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:06 AM EST     3.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:37 AM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:27 PM EST     3.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:56 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.23.13.73.93.73.22.51.71.10.60.611.82.63.23.63.63.22.51.70.90.30.10.4

Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:35 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:09 AM EST     3.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:00 AM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:30 PM EST     3.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:19 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.92.93.53.83.73.22.61.91.20.80.60.81.62.43.13.53.53.12.51.81.10.50.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.