Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 1:50 PM   Moonset 2:04 AM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 939 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Overnight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. Fri - W winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight. Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Showers likely. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers likely. Sun - W winds 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and ne 1 ft at 2 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.Mon night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Tue night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 939 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Weak high pressure will keep wind light for the next few days. A storm system will affect the area this weekend with the threat for convection. The associated cfp will occur Mon followed by a stronger push of high pressure that could require a sca Mon into Tue.

FXUS62 KILM 170204 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1004 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Quiet overnight as high pressure drifts offshore. Rain chances will increase late Fri thru the upcoming weekend as a new storm system advances eastward across the Southeast. As the low exits the Carolina coast Sun, a cold front will push offshore bringing below normal temperatures Mon and Tue.

UPDATE
Some tweaking to hrly temps/dewpts this evening and overnight applied...and a degree tweak upwards for tonights min temps applied. This aided by the latest obs/trends meshing to the ongoing fcst. Did add some additional patchy fog but kept low stratus at bay. Due to a relaxed sfc pg, winds should go calm for half the night at any given location and enough sfc based moisture for rad fog to occur. Question is will the fog become areas to widespread in coverage and will it reach dense thresholds. Confidence too low to go any further with the fog potential other than at a point fcst site, ie. at an airport terminal forecast (TAF).

Marine, sfc pressure pattern and relaxed gradient will continue with a SW-W wind at 5 to 10 kt. Seas generally 2 to occasionally 3 ft, primarily from a 7 second period SE-SSE wave.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pretty quiet for most of the period with WV imagery showing considerable dry air filtering in behind yesterday's severe weather- causing upper lows. Surface dewpoints haven't lowered much so we could still see some fog develop towards daybreak but not with the vigor as this morning. The Pee Dee and possibly Grand Strand have the best chance for some lowered visibility.
A light return flow will moisten the atmosphere tomorrow bringing increasing cloud cover all day. A midday shortwave will at least have opportunity to touch off isolated convection that may or not become deep based upon how weak the progged instability stays. Weak WAA will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s Friday after seasonable temperatures tonight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Warm front will lift north of the area Friday night. Poor saturation ahead of the warm front will keep showers isolated Friday night into early Saturday. Southwesterly flow will bring Gulf moisture into the region by early Saturday and shower chances will increase with the deepening saturation. An approaching shortwave will combine with isentropic lift and marginal instability to create widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. During the afternoon, an approaching cold front will expand the coverage of showers and storms. Marginal instability and weak shear could produce a damaging wind gust or two in the stronger storms on Saturday afternoon. Around an inch of rain is forecast with higher amounts likely where convective training occurs. Flash flooding and heavy rain may become the dominant threat.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper low will maintain unsettled weather on Sunday. As a developing surface low just offshore pushes a cold front southward through the area. Mid level lapse rates and warm air south of the front will likely lift along the front and create another period of showers and thunderstorms. The severe threat on Sunday is low, but a continued deluge of rain with previously saturated soils will prolong the flooding rain threat.

Surface low continues to develop offshore on Monday. A thin layer of saturation and cooler temperatures may promote a few light showers, especially early Monday. High temperatures with clouds and persistent northerly winds will be in the low to mid 70s.

A few lingering showers along the coast early Tuesday should be overcome by dry air advection. It will be worth mentioning the potential for lingering cloud cover as a subsidence inversion aloft traps some low level moisture. Upper 70s are expected in clouds and northerly flow. A few ambitious sites may see highs at 80. A quick warmup is anticipated on Wednesday and Thursday as low pressure exits the region and the next cold front approaches from the west.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR to dominate the majority of this 24 hr TAF Issuance Period.
The exception will be overnight, generally between 06z and 13Z Fri when fog between 5sm and 2sm to occur at all terminals, except dropping below 1sm at times across the inland terminals and CRE as winds go calm. After 13Z, days heating and 5 kt winds should quickly dissipate any remaining fog. There-after, looking at increasing thin then opaque cirrus with mid-level deck possible late in the period. Enuf moisture in the low levels, sfc to 8H, should be enuf for SCT diurnally driven cu by Fri aftn.
Could be VCSH late in the day Fri but confidence even low to place this in any terminal at this time.

Extended Outlook... VFR conditions to dominate going into Fri evening. The next storm system and associated periodic flight restrictions will affect the area late Fri night thru the weekend and likely into Mon.

MARINE
Through Friday... Wind will remain light and waves small. The former will be caused by a weak pressure gradient, the latter by the absence of swell leaving behind only the diminutive wind wave. (backswell from the storm off NE coast will not come this far west).

Friday Night through Tuesday Night... Low pressure will develop late Friday night into Saturday as winds turn southerly and increase. Showers and storms develop on Saturday and will likely continue through the weekend. A cold front will drop southward on Sunday as low pressure develops off the coast. Winds turn northerly late Sunday night behind the low and increase to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. SCA conditions are possible as this low develops off the coast through Tuesday. Showers and storm chances continue until the low finally starts to move offshore into Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Orton Point
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Thu -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:27 AM EDT     3.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:48 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:09 PM EDT     3.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:00 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Orton Point, North Carolina, Tide feet

Reaves Point
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Thu -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:34 AM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:22 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:19 PM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:42 PM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reaves Point, North Carolina, Tide feet

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