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FXUS62 KFFC 031908 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 308 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024


Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

At a glance:

- Multiple waves of precipitation through the weekend

- Brief reprieve from unseasonably warm temperatures Saturday north of I-20

At the surface, conditions are relatively benign, with the western fringes of surface high pressure still in place across the Southeast. The primary catalyst for our rather dreary weekend ahead will be a series of shortwaves traversing mid-level flow aloft, the strongest of which looks to move through Saturday afternoon.

Development through this afternoon is likely to be patchy and summer- like, with slight chance to low-end chances (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms. Saturday, with the arrival of better (but meager)
forcing and a slug of mid-level moisture, rain chances are likely to be more widespread and weakly organized, with fewer breaks in between individual waves.

For both days, MUCAPE looks to reach into the 1000-1500 J/kg range, but unimpressive shear (<20kt bulk) will preclude meaningful chances for severe weather. That said, PWATs creeping north of 1.5" areawide puts us at approximately the 90th percentile for early May per the SPC's sounding climatology. Any storms that form are likely to be slow-moving to stationary, and will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, ponding on roads, and perhaps nuisance flooding.

Highs today will continue the trend of being several degrees above average, in the upper 70s to 80s, with 90 in reach across south central Georgia. Tomorrow will be cooler north of I-20 -- highs in the 60s are not out of the question for portions of north Georgia, though generally in the 70s to near 80 -- thanks to greater coverage of clouds and thunderstorms. South of I-20, expect another day with temperatures reaching into the low-to-mid 80s.

96

LONG TERM
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

As the extended period picks up on Sunday morning, a shortwave disturbance will be positioned over the ArkLaTex. This disturbance will move northeastward over the course of the day on Sunday and into Monday, which will force continued scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. The coverage of thunderstorms will moreover be diurnally enhanced in the afternoon hours each day. The combination of forcing ahead of the shortwave, diurnal instability, and precipitable water values ranging from 1.4 to 1.7 inches will be sufficient for likely PoPs across the majority of north and central Georgia each afternoon, with some activity lingering into the evening each day. Low-level wind shear and dynamic support appears that it will be located nearest to the axis of the shortwave, which will pass north of the forecast area. As such, a widespread severe weather threat is not anticipated, but a few storms each day could become strong and capable of producing locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

A relatively drier period is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday with a mid-level ridge building over the Southeast. Temperatures will gradually warm under the ridge, with highs climbing a couple of degrees each day and reaching into the upper 80s in north Georgia and low 90s in central Georgia on Wednesday. These temperatures will be between 8-12 degrees above climatological normals. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to be confined to the far northern tier each afternoon on Tuesday and Wednesday.

By Thursday, an upper level trough will extend from the High Plains to the Four Corners region while subtropical ridging strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico. With a tightening pressure gradient between these features, much of the Southeast will be under strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will advance slowly southward from the lower Midwest into the Tennessee River Valley. A series of disturbances traversing the upper level flow is anticipated to overrun the front, which will help organize thunderstorms across northern portions of Georgia. With a warm and unstable airmass across much of the Southeast and increased deep- layer bulk shear ahead of the advancing front, the potential for severe weather on Thursday will need to be monitored as the forecast evolves.

King

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR conds expected thru the aftn. Isold TSRA psbl at northern TAF sites from 19-24Z. Winds will be SW/SSW at 5-8kts through 00Z both today and tomorrow, becoming light out of the SE/VRB at times overnight tonight. Low-MVFR to IFR cigs and MFVR vsbys psbl in heaviest pcpn from 10-16Z, then MVFR to low-VFR cigs and -SHRA to linger thru remainder of TAF pd. TSRA psbl once again Saturday aftn, with best window from 18-23Z.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
Medium confidence morning ceiling progression and precipitation timing.
High confidence all other elements.

96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 64 79 62 83 / 40 70 50 60 Atlanta 65 81 64 83 / 50 70 40 60 Blairsville 60 74 59 78 / 70 80 50 80 Cartersville 63 81 62 83 / 50 60 40 60 Columbus 66 87 65 88 / 40 40 30 50 Gainesville 64 78 64 81 / 40 70 50 70 Macon 66 83 64 85 / 30 60 40 60 Rome 64 82 62 85 / 60 60 40 70 Peachtree City 64 83 62 84 / 50 60 30 60 Vidalia 68 83 66 87 / 40 50 30 60

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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