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FXUS62 KFFC 051850 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 250 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024


Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

At a glance:

- More widespread chances for thunderstorms this evening and overnight

- Unseasonable heat returns

In general, little meaningful changes to presiding flow pattern. The western fringes of a surface high continue to overspread the Southeast, with a series of shortwaves traversing the mid-levels that will serve as the main source of forcing for any convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms persisted overnight and well into the morning for areas along and east of the Metro; subsequent development this afternoon may be delayed and less widespread between Atlanta and Athens. That said, cells that do form will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall as in previous afternoons.

The most active window for showers and thunderstorms is likely to be after dark tonight for much of north and north central Georgia.
HiRes guidance suggests that a wave of weakly-organized convection will breach the AL/GA border after midnight and continue its path eastward across the Metro through daybreak. Bulk shear remains unimpressive (<20kt) so not expecting much more than embedded sub- severe thunderstorms within the broader complex of showers.

Monday looks to be a near rinse and repeat of today; isolated thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing when the sun rises north of I- 20, giving way to more widely scattered activity during the afternoon.

Highs will quite warm (unseasonably so by up to 5-7 degrees) both today and Monday, topping out in the 80s to near-90 for all but the terrain of northeast Georgia, which will remain in the 70s. A slight gradient in temperature is possible tomorrow depending on coverage and duration of overnight precipitation, which would see northern Georgia just a few degrees "cooler" than today, in the upper-70s to lower-80s.

96

LONG TERM
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

The extended forecast remains mostly on track, with only minor changes made. The southward movement of the cold front is trending slightly faster, with a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms forecast on Wednesday afternoon and evening as a shortwave disturbance overruns the front. The previous discussion follows...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Shortwave ridging aloft will build across the region at the onset of the forecast period beginning Tuesday, leading to a drier and hotter midweek time frame. PoPs won't be shut off entirely but instead relegated mainly to far north Georgia Tuesday and Wednesday in the form of isolated to widely scattered convection. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the hottest days of the week with highs ranging mainly from the upper 80s to low 90s, some 8-12 degrees above normal, though record highs are unlikely to be threatened.

The ridge will flatten by Wednesday night into Thursday while at the surface a cold front will make subtle southward progress toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As convection initiates near the front on Wednesday, model guidance continues to indicate the potential for convective complex(es) to propagate east-southeastward Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There is thus the potential for at least peripheral to perhaps more direct MCS impacts to parts of north Georgia during this time frame, and the possibility for severe thunderstorms would also concomitantly increase.

The cold front will make more substantial southward progress across the Tennessee Valley on Thursday with PoPs remaining elevated in advance of the front. The front then gets a shove into and across our area Thursday night into Friday, with elevated PoPs shifting southward across the area in advance of the front on Friday. The associated severe potential will need to be monitored Thursday and Friday as well as 0-6 km bulk shear of 50+ kts would support a damaging wind threat, and supportive lapse rates could also lead to a hail threat.

A much cooler and drier airmass will establish itself in the wake of the front by the weekend with below normal temperatures likely to make a return.

RW

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SCT MVFR cigs in areas with more dense cu, otherwise primarily VFR conds to continue thru the aftn. Low-end chc for isold TSRA impacts at northern TAF sites from 18-23Z. Expect another wave of prevailing -SHRA from 09-15/16Z, with window from potential TSRA from 09-13Z. MVFR vsbys may accompany heaviest rainfall. Cannot rule out pds of low-MVFR to IFR cigs if overnight pcpn is weaker/lower coverage... but low confidence. Winds will remain SSW at 5-8kts during the day, shifting to the SE/light and VRB at times after 00Z.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
Medium confidence all elements.

96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 63 84 63 86 / 30 70 50 20 Atlanta 66 85 66 86 / 40 70 60 20 Blairsville 60 78 59 80 / 40 70 70 40 Cartersville 63 85 63 86 / 50 60 50 30 Columbus 67 89 67 90 / 30 40 30 10 Gainesville 64 83 65 84 / 30 70 60 30 Macon 66 87 65 89 / 10 60 50 10 Rome 64 85 64 86 / 60 60 50 40 Peachtree City 65 86 65 87 / 40 60 50 20 Vidalia 67 88 67 90 / 20 70 60 10

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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