Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crowell, TX
May 5, 2024 6:09 PM CDT (23:09 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:40 AM Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 4:09 AM Moonset 4:59 PM |
Area Discussion for - Lubbock, TX
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FXUS64 KLUB 051854 AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 154 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Low clouds are clearing this morning with temperatures slower to warm across the area, but still expecting high temperatures in the 70s. Current satellite midlevel water vapor analysis shows an upper low spinning over the Great Basin with westerly flow aloft. This system will continue to swing eastward over the Northern Rockies tonight with southwesterly flow aloft. As a result, the surface low across eastern Wyoming will strengthen overnight with an increasing low level jet over West Texas. Thus, breezy southerly surface winds will develop overnight. Upslope flow will also give way to increased low level moisture and the return of low clouds across the area.
However, these low clouds will clear much quicker tomorrow morning as the negatively tilted trough pushes into the Plains. The Pacific front will push eastward across the forecast area tomorrow, which will bring dry and breezy west winds. As a result, the dryline will also be pushed eastward across the Rolling Plains through the afternoon. There is a low end threat for a storm or two to develop across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and far eastern Rolling Plains. However, the dryline is likely to be east of the forecast area with little to no chances for any thunderstorms.
LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will be the main story of the long- term period. Zonal flow aloft will return to the region as the shortwave trough and associated low ejects north into the High Plains Tuesday where it is expected to remain relatively stationary through mid-week. This will allow surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies to develop and influence breezy west to southwest winds across the forecast area which will work to boost temperatures above seasonal norms into the 80s and 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. These breezy conditions in addition to warm temperatures and low minimum RH values may lead to elevated to near critical fire weather concerns, especially across areas on the Caprock and far southwestern Texas Panhandle where there is a lack of fuel moisture.
By Thursday, the once stationary low/trough, over the High Plains will kick off to the northeast and sling a cold front through the region. FROPA is expected to track through the FA overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning providing much needed relief from the above normal temperatures with highs in the 70s expected through the end of the week. Ensemble guidance continues to hint at a cutoff low developing across western CONUS late next week. Depending on how far east this system tracks, we could see our next best shot of showers and thunderstorms across the FA. Given the vast amount of uncertainty with timing and evolution of this system have opted to stick with NBM mentionable PoPs for the time being.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
MVFR ceilings persist this morning across all three sites, but the low stratus deck is expected to clear early this afternoon with a return of VFR conditions. Low clouds will return again tonight at all three sites with MVFR to IFR ceilings. Southerly surface winds will pick up this afternoon to around 10 to 15 knots and remain breezy overnight. Winds will then ramp up to around 15 to 20 knots by the late morning hours tomorrow.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains. The Pacific front will bring dry and breezy conditions along the Caprock. Minimum relative humidity values will range from 7 to 13 percent across the Caprock, with west winds of 20 to 30 mph and higher gusts possible. A Red Flag Warning has been issued from Noon to 9 PM CDT tomorrow for the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for TXZ021>023- 027>029.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 154 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Low clouds are clearing this morning with temperatures slower to warm across the area, but still expecting high temperatures in the 70s. Current satellite midlevel water vapor analysis shows an upper low spinning over the Great Basin with westerly flow aloft. This system will continue to swing eastward over the Northern Rockies tonight with southwesterly flow aloft. As a result, the surface low across eastern Wyoming will strengthen overnight with an increasing low level jet over West Texas. Thus, breezy southerly surface winds will develop overnight. Upslope flow will also give way to increased low level moisture and the return of low clouds across the area.
However, these low clouds will clear much quicker tomorrow morning as the negatively tilted trough pushes into the Plains. The Pacific front will push eastward across the forecast area tomorrow, which will bring dry and breezy west winds. As a result, the dryline will also be pushed eastward across the Rolling Plains through the afternoon. There is a low end threat for a storm or two to develop across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and far eastern Rolling Plains. However, the dryline is likely to be east of the forecast area with little to no chances for any thunderstorms.
LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will be the main story of the long- term period. Zonal flow aloft will return to the region as the shortwave trough and associated low ejects north into the High Plains Tuesday where it is expected to remain relatively stationary through mid-week. This will allow surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies to develop and influence breezy west to southwest winds across the forecast area which will work to boost temperatures above seasonal norms into the 80s and 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. These breezy conditions in addition to warm temperatures and low minimum RH values may lead to elevated to near critical fire weather concerns, especially across areas on the Caprock and far southwestern Texas Panhandle where there is a lack of fuel moisture.
By Thursday, the once stationary low/trough, over the High Plains will kick off to the northeast and sling a cold front through the region. FROPA is expected to track through the FA overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning providing much needed relief from the above normal temperatures with highs in the 70s expected through the end of the week. Ensemble guidance continues to hint at a cutoff low developing across western CONUS late next week. Depending on how far east this system tracks, we could see our next best shot of showers and thunderstorms across the FA. Given the vast amount of uncertainty with timing and evolution of this system have opted to stick with NBM mentionable PoPs for the time being.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
MVFR ceilings persist this morning across all three sites, but the low stratus deck is expected to clear early this afternoon with a return of VFR conditions. Low clouds will return again tonight at all three sites with MVFR to IFR ceilings. Southerly surface winds will pick up this afternoon to around 10 to 15 knots and remain breezy overnight. Winds will then ramp up to around 15 to 20 knots by the late morning hours tomorrow.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains. The Pacific front will bring dry and breezy conditions along the Caprock. Minimum relative humidity values will range from 7 to 13 percent across the Caprock, with west winds of 20 to 30 mph and higher gusts possible. A Red Flag Warning has been issued from Noon to 9 PM CDT tomorrow for the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for TXZ021>023- 027>029.
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Frederick, OK,
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