Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Myrtle Grove, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:30PM Thursday January 18, 2018 12:41 AM EST (05:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:13AMMoonset 7:04PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 825 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Overnight..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft. Rain or snow early this evening, then a slight chance of snow.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft after midnight.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 ft, then 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ200 825 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will move off the coast this evening and will be followed by arctic high pressure that will build over the area waters late tonight thru Friday. The center of the high will move off the southeast u.s. Coast late Friday and become anchored offshore through Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Myrtle Grove, NC
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location: 34.11, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 180513
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1213 am est Thu jan 18 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will bring a mix of rain and snow, and will clear
the coast late tonight. Cold and dry arctic air, will spread
into the region through Thursday. Temperatures will warm into
the weekend as high pressure moves offshore. Another cold front
will bring rain chances by Monday evening, but little cooling,
and temperatures are expected to remain above normal into next
week.

Near term through today
As of 900 pm Wednesday... Much of the moisture has scoured out
across the ilm cwa, well ahead of the upper closed low. This
potent closed low will move across the fa late this evening and
overnight with continued limited moisture across the fa. Some
atlantic moisture will be drawn in, however areas north of the
ilm cwa, from CAPE lookout northward, will be the beneficiaries.

Basically, will have to rely on the dynamics of the upper
closed low and it's accompanying moisture, which is not much.

Due to the moisture dilemma, we have downgraded the winter storm
warning to a winter weather advisory for those 2 counties. Have
continued the winter wx adv for the 4 inland counties. Due to
the limited moisture, have lowered the total snow accumulations
to 1 to 2 inches across the northern periphery and that's being
very generous, elsewhere, looking at 1 inch or less for the
those 4 counties within the initial winter wx adv.

Wind chills by morning will be in the upper single digits well
inland. Any further decrease in temps and or higher wind gusts
would produce wind chill advisory numbers which is 5 degrees or
less.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .

As of 300 pm Wednesday... A winter storm warning continues for
marlboro and robeson counties, and a winter weather advisory
remains in effect for darlington, marlboro, bladen, and pender
counties.

Goes-east water vapor is showing the mid-level trough moving
into the western carolina's. At the surface the cold frontal
boundary is entering into the western portions of the forecast
area. The 2 pm observations is showing rain over most of the
forecast area. The latest hrrr is showing the best chances of
snow in the western half of the area after 3 pm and will slowly
make it to the coast. Timing for the coast appears to be after 8
pm. With the dry air it appears after the initial shot of
precipiation that we will see light snow or flurries well after
midnight.

Also, with delay in the system making eastward have extended the
warnings and advisories to 1 am. Also, for areas south of the
warning and advisory area will have to watch for black ice as
any liquid precipiation that does fall will likely freeze.

As the storm pushes off the coast, winds will increase and
combined with the low temperatures will see wind chills in the
the 8 to 13 degree range around sunrise Thursday. This is just
above the wind chill advisory criteria.

On Thursday skies will clear but temperatures will struggle to
get to 40 degrees with brisk winds.

Short term tonight through Friday night
As of 300 pm Wednesday... The mid level pattern will have
evolved into a split flow regime initially and translate into a
southwest flow ahead of a mid level low by Saturday morning.

Although seemingly busy at the mid levels, surface high pressure
will be the dominant feature. This high will move across the
gulf of mexico then out into the atlantic by the end of the
period. Once again a temperature forecast throughout and expect
lows Friday in the lower to middle 20s. Highs Friday will
rebound into the 50s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... The chief caption this period "warming
trend". Even in wake of a cold front early next week, minimal
cold air advection is seen, as the upper pattern sees a SE atlc
upper ridge gradually expand NW into the area. A weak cold pool
aloft meanders eastward along the gulf coast this weekend and
offshore by Monday, will little sensible weather impacts here.

As a result, much of next week may feature sunshine and 60s in
the afternoons, likely feeling like an early spring compared to
the recent weather pattern. Aside from late Monday and early
Tuesday, this entire period will maintain a dry column and low
pwat values. The coldest period, will be Saturday morning, near
freezing, the mildest, perhaps just ahead of the cold front
Monday into the upper 60s by afternoon. Tuesday looks to be the
breeziest day in wake of the cold front, with w-nw breezes.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 06z... Patches of very light snow should move out of the
myrtle beach and wilmington area by 08z. Low clouds still
blanket the area currently, but I expect skc to develop inland
(lbt and flo) around 08z, spreading down to the coast (ilm, cre,
myr) around 10z. Breezy northwest winds could gust to 20 knots
at times early this morning. Skc will continue tonight with wind
speeds diminishing.

Extended outlook...VFR.

Marine
Near term through Thursday ...

as of 930 pm Wednesday... Continued the SCA timeline for all
waters. The NW offshore winds have begun increasing across the
local waters and should breach SCA thresholds after midnight.

The cfp followed by a tightening sfc pg combined with arctic
air advection, will result in NW winds 20-25 kt with gusts up
to 30 kt possible overnight through midday thu. At the moment,
significant seas are responding and have increased 1 to 2 ft
during the past hour. The dominant 3 foot ese ground swell at
10-12 second periods for the past few days will give way to
building wind driven waves that will overtake the dominance
held by the ground swell.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .

As of 300 pm Wednesday... Currently winds are from the east with
seas running 3 to 4 feet. This will change quickly as the
front and a developing low shifts to the northeast off the
coast. Winds are expected to reach 20 to 25 knots late this
evening and seas will increase to 5 to 7 feet. The winds will
weaken and with an offshore flow the seas should settle back out
to 3 to 5 feet by Thursday afternoon.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Surface high pressure will move from
the northern gulf of mexico to well offshore during the period.

Between this feature and the general cyclonic flow to the north
a west to southwestern flow will prevail across the waters. Wind
speeds will be fairly uniform in a 10-15 knot range leaning
moreso toward the higher end early then the lower end late.

Significant seas will generally fall into a 2-3 foot range.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Welcoming and friendly marine
conditions this period, particularly in wake of recent weather.

As high pressure slips offshore by the weekend, a milder return
sw flow will prevail, with seas 3 feet or less, and even 1-2
feet at times, with winds less than 15 kt. Seas will begin to
build Monday as sustained SE fetch offshore, starts pushing wave
energy toward our coast. By Monday night seas of 4-5 ft in 7
second intervals, may be rolling in. No tstms this period, but a
few rain showers can be expected Monday night, as a cold front
crosses the coast. Inshore water temperatures were in the upper
40s to lower 50s.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est early this morning for
scz017-023-024.

Nc... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est early this morning for
ncz087-096-105.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for amz254-
256.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for amz250-
252.

Synopsis... Mjc
near term... Dch drh
short term... Shk
long term... Mjc
aviation... Tra
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 3 mi57 min NNW 1.9 29°F 1020 hPa27°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi34 min NNW 21 32°F 47°F1020.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi43 min 47°F5 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 7 mi42 min NW 16 G 22 29°F 47°F1021.3 hPa (+1.7)
WLON7 10 mi42 min 29°F 47°F1021.5 hPa (+2.1)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi94 min N 25 G 35 38°F 58°F1019.6 hPa
41108 29 mi42 min 46°F4 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi34 min N 16 G 23 31°F 1021.4 hPa
41064 47 mi94 min NNW 21 G 27 38°F 58°F1018.1 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi32 min NNW 23 G 31 38°F 66°F1020 hPa37°F
41159 47 mi42 min 58°F7 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC13 mi49 minNNW 17 G 2310.00 miOvercast29°F25°F85%1021.8 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC18 mi47 minN 10 G 2010.00 miOvercast30°F27°F89%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE5SE8E6E8NE6E6E4N6W6NW8NW9N7N10N10NW17
G23
1 day agoCalmNW4NW3NW3NW4NW3CalmCalmN4CalmN3N5SE3NW4NW7SW4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN4N6N4N8N7N7N7N9NW9NW10N8NW8NW10NW9N7NW8N10N3NW5N4N4N3N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:01 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:51 AM EST     4.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:39 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:04 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:53 PM EST     3.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.40.70.1-0.20.21.32.63.53.943.83.12.31.50.80.20.10.8233.43.63.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:44 AM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:20 AM EST     4.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:38 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:04 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:36 PM EST     3.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.6-0.1-0.20.212.13.24.14.64.53.82.81.60.6-0-0.10.3122.83.33.432.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.