Saturday, April21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Myrtle Grove, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:49PM Saturday April 21, 2018 7:11 PM EDT (23:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:18AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 41% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 339 Pm Edt Sat Apr 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late Sunday night through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Mon night..E winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. Showers with isolated tstms.
Tue..SE winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 339 Pm Edt Sat Apr 21 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Canadian high pressure will remain just to our north through Sunday. Low pressure will move slowly across the area Monday and Tuesday. The low will slowly move northeast and away from the region on Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the west.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Myrtle Grove, NC
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location: 34.11, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 211945
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
345 pm edt Sat apr 21 2018

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure will continue to extend into the
carolinas as it migrates slowly east off the mid-atlantic coast
through Sunday. Slow moving low pressure will cross the
southeastern u.S. Monday through Wednesday, bringing widespread
rainfall with continued below-normal temperatures. Another
system may affect the carolinas Thursday into Friday.

Near term through Sunday
As of 300 pm Saturday... A weak 500 mb ridge will move across the
area tonight and then offshore Sunday. An upper low dropping
southeast across kansas will make it as far east as arkansas by
Sunday afternoon. Developing southerly flow in the mid and upper
levels ahead of the upper low should begin to increase cloud cover
across the carolinas Sunday, with veering low level winds even
developing a bit of stratocumulus beneath the upper level moisture
plume during the day.

A blossoming area of isentropic lift ongoing now across southern
georgia is developing quite a canopy of mid-level clouds between
charleston, sc and jacksonville, fl. While a little of this moisture
may sneak across the santee river overnight, our skies should remain
mainly clear with good radiational cooling expected. The only
exception to this will be within a few miles of the beaches where
steady onshore winds may prevent a radiational inversion from
developing until late tonight, if at all. For this reason i've tried
to show a large range in forecast lows as you move inland: 53 at
myr, 50 at cre, and 46 at flo. The coldest temperatures tonight
should be across interior SE north carolina where lower 40s are
expected in the normal cold spots.

Despite winds just above the surface veering more southerly during
the day Sunday, warm advection GOES into lift leading to nearly
steady 850 mb temps. This means highs Sunday shouldn't be
appreciably different from today: low 70s inland and mid-upper 60s
near the coast. Rain chances should hold off until sunset across the
sc pee dee region.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 300 pm Saturday... A complex weather pattern will unfold
during the short term period as low pressure, progged to be
near just E of the ms valley during Monday, promotes strong
onshore low-level flow and theta-e advection. As the upper low
drifts ene across tn and into ky the pattern becomes favorable
for strong upward vertical velocities. The upward motion will be
enhanced by the increasingly divergent flow aloft, and the
convergent flow expected to be present in the low levels. As a
result, widespread areas across the ilm CWA may receive 1-3
inches of rainfall. Available instability for thunderstorms is
on the low side however strong lift supports carrying isolated
thunderstorms in the least. Best chance of rain will occur
Monday for southwestern zones, and Monday evening for the
remaining areas. Favored a blend of mav met ece temperatures all
periods. Breezy conditions expected to develop during Monday,
especially along the coast. Will have to watch for potential
coastal flooding as well each high tide Monday into Monday night
given the onshore fetch.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 pm Saturday... A low pressure system will track off to
the NE tues into wed. The sfc low will track closer to the
coastline while the upper low will move northeast from tn toward
the ohio valley. As this closed upper low lifts north, another
shortwave will rotate down toward the southern appalachians by
thurs. Overall, this system remains quite complex, but looks
like the heavier rain will move north leaving clouds but some
drier air wrapping through mid week. The next shortwave should
dig down and push a cold front through on thurs, but does not
look like a big rainmaker. Therefore, expect breaks in the
clouds and some clearing late tues into Wed with increased
clouds and potential for pcp again thurs. Another system will
follow in this progressive flow by Fri into sat, although the
gfs keeps most of the weather with this system north of our
local forecast area, while the ECMWF remains more pessimistic
heading into next weekend. Overall a good amount of clouds and
and not much QPF expected through the week. Temps have been
trending warmer but remaining near normals through much of the
period.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 18z...VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours.

Easterly winds will reach 12 knots along the coast today, and
perhaps again late Sunday morning.

Extended outlook... Rain Monday and Tuesday could bring periods
of MVFR ifr conditions in low ceilings and visibility. The worst
conditions are expected Monday night.

Marine
Near term through Sunday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... A ridge of high pressure extending from the
great lakes to just off the virginia coast is maintaining an
easterly wind across the area. The high will move very little over
the next 24 hours as low pressure develops across louisiana and
arkansas, and this should maintain the easterly wind through Sunday.

Wind speeds should average 10-15 knots, perhaps a bit stronger by
late Sunday afternoon.

Buoys are currently reporting wave heights of 2-3 feet across the
coastal waters with the frying pan shoals buoy offshore now up to 4
feet. Dominant wave period has shortened to around 5 seconds with a
second peak at 8-9 seconds indicating local wind chop is becoming
more dominant. Waves of 4 feet should become more common Sunday
afternoon south of CAPE fear.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Marine conditions will become hazardous
during the short term. High pressure off new england during
Monday with low pressure along the ms valley will create a
strong onshore fetch with small craft thresholds likely. Plan
to raise the advisory with the afternoon coastal waters
forecast. The strong winds will continue into Monday night,
and it's possible a period of gales could occur. However,
confidence is not high enough to warrant a gale watch at this
time. The onshore fetch will allow for seas to get above small
craft thresholds by daybreak Monday, and to exceed 10 ft when
winds are strongest later in the day Monday into the evening.

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected,
more-so across the southern waters initially, and all waters
by Monday evening.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Complex low pressure system will track
ne parallel and near to the carolina va coast tues into wed. A
strong onshore flow will persist into tues , but winds will
diminish as they shift around from on shore to off shore by wed
on the back end of the low as it lifts off to the northeast.

Another system will follow behind this one, dragging a cold
through on thurs. Therefore expect off shore flow to continue
through much fo the period.

Overall, expect seas to subside through the period from a peak
tues morning, above 10 ft in outer waters. The on shore flow
will shift around to the off shore and decrease with seas down
below SCA thresholds by Wed morning and continuing to lower to 2
to 4 ft by thurs morning.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Tra
short term... Srp
long term... Rgz
aviation... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi63 min ESE 9.7 G 14 61°F 61°F1027.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi41 min 60°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 7 mi41 min ESE 12 G 14 60°F 63°F1027.9 hPa
WLON7 10 mi41 min 63°F 64°F1027.4 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi63 min E 14 G 18 62°F 66°F1028 hPa
41108 29 mi41 min 61°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi63 min ESE 16 G 19 61°F 62°F1027.3 hPa
SSBN7 39 mi109 min 2 ft
41064 47 mi63 min E 9.7 G 14 61°F 66°F1028.3 hPa
41159 47 mi41 min 66°F3 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi31 min ENE 14 G 18 63°F 67°F1027.2 hPa51°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC13 mi18 minE 810.00 miFair62°F37°F41%1027.6 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC18 mi36 minESE 610.00 miFair62°F35°F38%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE4CalmNE4NE6E10E10
G15
E9E9E9E66SE8SE11E8
1 day agoN9
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N9N10N9N10N10N5N7NE8N11N10
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2 days agoSW14SW13
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Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:16 AM EDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:58 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:16 PM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:59 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.24.64.54.13.42.51.81.10.40.10.61.72.83.53.83.73.22.41.60.90.40.10.51.7

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:11 AM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:40 PM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:28 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.35.14.33.21.80.70.1-00.41.22.133.63.73.32.51.50.600.10.61.52.63.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.