Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Myrtle Grove, NC

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7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:21PM Sunday July 22, 2018 3:05 AM EDT (07:05 UTC) Moonrise 3:13PMMoonset 1:17AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 834 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Showers and tstms.
Tue..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the day, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, then 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 834 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. An upper level low to the west will bring unsettled weather to the coastal waters and an extended period of southerly winds through the upcoming week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Myrtle Grove, NC
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location: 34.11, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 220544
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
144 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure developing to our west should bring showers and
thunderstorms back into the area tonight and Sunday. Next week
is shaping up to be very unsettled as low pressure remains
across the southeast and tropical moisture spreads onshore.

Near term through tonight
As of 800 pm Saturday... A few light late afternoon early evening
showers popped up along the northern tier of the CWA in an area
of surface convergence. This convergence zone will move off to
the northeast, and am not expecting any additional convective
development until an upstream shortwave crosses the area after
midnight. By then, showers and thunderstorms associated with the
shortwave will be approaching the pee dee region. Although the
atmosphere will be stabilizing, it should remain unstable
enough to support the potential for weakening convection to
make it to the CAPE fear coast by 10-11z. South of a wilmington
to florence line, dynamic support will be very weak, and
overnight activity may remain somewhat isolated.

On Sunday the models are showing drier precipitable of 1.5 inches
and as this afternoon the temperatures aloft are cooling to -8
to -10. So will continue with a chance of convection on Sunday.

Short term Monday through Monday night
As of 300 pm Saturday... Cyclonic flow through most the entire column
through the period-certainly not the norm for july. With the center
of this deep layer gyre remaining to our west the coastal carolinas
will be in deep layer southerly moist flow. And while these
conditions certainly do favor widespread cloud cover and the ever-
present chance for rain the axis of deep moisture and specter of
heavy rain likely remain just off the coast. Should the mid level
trough axis move even slightly westward in future model runs then
the coast may once again be under the gun for appreciable rainfall.

There is another possibility that some higher QPF could rotate into
the area late Monday night. Should the upper low cut off enough from
the northern branch trough then deep layer flow could back from S to
sse or SE and fling higher pw into mainly areas-nc moreso than sc.

Cloud cover will keep Monday highs below climatology while holding
both nights above.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... Not a lot of change to the extended forecast
and really much wasn't expected as the guidance has been
relatively stable for several cycles now. Mid level low pressure
is still expected to linger in the southeast for a few days
with a deep tropical plume connection funneling into the
carolinas. The GFS appears to open up the low a little quicker
Thursday (and the latest ECMWF even moreso) with more of a
typical southwest flow aloft, piedmont surface trough setup late
Thursday through Saturday. I have increased the pops for
Tuesday into early Wednesday to mostly categorical with likely
values into Thursday with high chance for the remainder of the
period. Temperature forecast remains relatively unchanged with
highs in the upper 80s to near 90 trending slightly higher in
time with a little less moisture. Overnight lows very stable in
the 70s.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
As of 06z... Uncertainty persists with potential thunderstorms
overnight, but feel chance for terminals getting directly
affected is waning. Most guidance has convection remaining west
of the terminals, and although both flo lbt may see a storm
before dawn, will handle this with amd if necessary. Otherwise,
expectVFR with debris cloudiness and S SW winds 5-10 kts.VFR
will persist much of Sunday with only isolated tstms expected
until evening. An increase in coverage is forecast late in this
valid period however and have added vcsh all terminals after
dark. More notably may be strong winds along the coast during
the aftn eve, which could gust above 20 kts at ilm cre myr from
late morning through late evening.

Extended outlook... Occasional MVFR to ifr conditions due to
scattered shra and tsra through Thursday.

Marine
Near term through Sunday ...

as of 800 pm Saturday... Winds across the waters are generally
southwest this evening as a result of a trough of low pressure
extending from norfolk to fayetteville. The orientation of the
trough won't change much overnight, and will allow south to southwest
winds on the order of 15 knots to continue, with seas running
around 4 feet. The winds are expected to become more southerly
on Sunday, and the southerly fetch will maintain 3 to 5 ft seas.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... A small craft advisory will be in effect
for the period for nc zones-the headline may not materialize
until daytime Monday for sc zones. Low pressure at all levels of
the troposphere will be found to our west, which is very
uncommon for summertime. Southerly flow will strengthen over the
short term and should reach advisory levels as will seas-both
seeing a relative delay across southern waters vs. Northern
waters.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Southeast winds of 15-20 knots will be in place
much of Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds will veer to more
south southwest for the remainder of the period with decent speeds
continuing. Elevated seas near small craft advisory criteria will be
side by side with the winds with slightly higher values early in the
period.

Climate
As of 330 am Saturday... Recent heavy rainfall in wilmington is
pushing our 2018 rainfall into record territory. Keep in mind
our may rainfall total of 14.36 inches exceeded the next wettest
may by over five inches, and january and june totals were also
well above normal. The increasing likelihood for an EL nino
winter could help make 2018 one of the wettest years ever seen
in the port city.

Wettest years in wilmington's history, jan 1 through july 20...

#1 48.11 in 2018
#2 45.47 in 1886
#3 44.13 in 1966
#4 39.72 in 1973
#5 38.40 in 1998

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through
this evening for scz054-056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through
this evening for ncz106-108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Shk
near term... Jdw drh crm
short term... mbb
long term... Shk
aviation... Jdw
marine...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi57 min S 16 G 21 80°F 82°F1007.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi35 min 82°F4 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 7 mi41 min SSW 17 G 19 81°F 84°F1008.7 hPa
WLON7 10 mi35 min 78°F 83°F1008.4 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi57 min SSW 16 G 23 81°F 82°F1008.9 hPa
41108 29 mi35 min 82°F4 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi57 min SW 16 G 23 82°F 83°F1008 hPa
SSBN7 39 mi125 min 2 ft
41064 47 mi57 min SSW 12 G 16 81°F 82°F1008.9 hPa
41159 47 mi35 min 82°F5 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi25 min SSW 14 G 18 81°F 81°F1008.7 hPa76°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC13 mi72 minS 510.00 miFair77°F73°F88%1008.4 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC18 mi65 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F75°F89%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W6NW10NW12NW9NW10NW12NW10W7W11W10W9W8W7W8SW9S7S12S8S10S10SW6S5S5
1 day agoNE6NE6NE7NE5NE6SW4SE4E7NE6E7E7E4SE6CalmE4E5NE7NW4NE3NE5S4SE3S4S4
2 days agoNE5NE6NE6NE5NE7E6E9E10E11SE8E9E6E10E8E9E8E4E4E4E3NE5NE4N4NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
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Sun -- 02:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:28 AM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:07 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:09 PM EDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.61.52.53.23.63.632.21.50.90.3-0.10.21.12.23.13.84.243.32.61.91.2

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
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Sun -- 02:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:15 AM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:12 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:01 PM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:21 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.92.73.23.53.42.921.20.50.20.30.91.82.93.84.44.74.43.72.71.710.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.