Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 4:09 AM   Moonset 5:37 PM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 655 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt early this evening. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning. Tue night - SW winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: S 6 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Fri night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 655 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure will extend into the area from the east into Thursday. A cold front accompanied with convection will move through the area late Thu into Fri. High pressure will build into the area in the wake of the front.

FXUS62 KILM 061957 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 357 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
The area will remain between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure into Thursday with unseasonably warm and humid conditions expected. A cold front will move through late in the work week which will bring drier and cooler conditions into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A shortwave trough in the mid levels of the atmosphere will pass through the area by about daybreak Tuesday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon and evening. In the wake of the trough, isolated showers and storms will be possible Tuesday but coverage should be much more limited than today as ridging builds in aloft. Lows tonight will fall to the mid to upper 60s with highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Highlights: *Unseasonably hot and humid Wed with heat indices peaking in the mid to possibly upper 90s *Low severe storm risk Wed/Wed night

Confidence: *Moderate to High

Details: High pressure offshore and an inland trough will prevail at the surface along with periodic weak disturbances aloft. This will keep it unseasonably warm and muggy with some showers and storms, mainly Wednesday afternoon/evening. Although coverage of rain should be pretty low, a few storms could become severe, especially Wednesday evening in NC.

Temps will be on an upswing, staying well above normal, with lows each night near 70/in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s inland Wednesday. No records are expected to be reached, although could come the closest at Wilmington (92 degrees) and maybe even Florence (95 degrees). Heat indices on Wednesday should peak in the mid 90s (possibly even some upper 90s), which is still well below our Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees). However, this will be the first really muggy day this spring and folks should be especially mindful if they will be outdoors for any significant amount of time.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Highlights: *Unseasonably hot and humid Thu with heat indices peaking in the mid 90s *Low severe storm risk Thu

Confidence: *Low to Moderate through Friday *Moderate to High Friday night through Monday

Details: High pressure centered offshore along with a trough inland should prevail until a cold front moves through later in the work week, likely either Thursday night or Friday. Ahead of the front some severe storms could develop Thursday/Thursday night. Cooler and drier weather will then move in after the cold front passes later in the week and continue into early next week with a refreshing break in the heat/humidity expected.

The warmest temperatures this period will be Thursday with highs near 90 inland and heat indices into the mid 90s. Temps should fall Friday, either due to cooler air already moving in behind the cold front or due to more clouds/rain from the passing front if it's slower to progress through the area.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Outside showers and thunderstorms expect mainly VFR conditions through the valid taf period. Do expect that all terminals will have brief MVFR or even IFR conditions due to scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Overnight, terminals show VFR but there is a small chance of MVFR/IFR cigs developing in the 08- 12Z timeframe.

Extended Outlook...Isolated convection could bring visibility and ceiling restrictions Tue afternoon. Otherwise, looking at VFR dominating Tue night into Thu with limited convection.Clearing later Fri with VFR dominating. Flight restrictions possible later Thu into Fri from convection ahead of a strong cold front. VFR Saturday.

MARINE
Through Monday: Southwest winds to 10 to 15 KT are expected tonight and Tuesday with 20 KT possible at times Tuesday. Seas of 2 to 3 FT are expected through the period with 4 footers closer to 20 nm on Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Saturday...The local waters will remain between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough at least mid week maintaining elevated southerly winds until a cold front moves through either Thursday night or Friday. Winds will likely be near Small Craft Advisory levels much of the period with the most likely timeframe of exceeding 25 kt gusts coming Thursday/Thursday night as the cold front approaches. Seas should mostly stay below SCA levels (6 ft) but could also reach SCA levels briefly, especially later Thursday/Thursday night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Masonboro Inlet
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Mon -- 01:15 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:05 AM EDT     4.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:27 PM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:33 PM EDT     4.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Campbell Island
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Mon -- 02:44 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:07 AM EDT     4.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:54 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT     4.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Campbell Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

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