Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Myrtle Grove, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:33PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 5:47 PM EST (22:47 UTC) Moonrise 8:39PMMoonset 9:13AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 407 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning in effect from 11 pm est this evening through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late. Seas 4 to 7 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers early this evening, then a chance of showers late this evening and early morning. Showers likely with isolated tstms late.
Thu..S winds 30 to 35 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 11 ft, subsiding to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Showers with isolated tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 407 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A warm front just inland from the coast, will push further inland while at the same time lifting northward. A strong eastward moving cold front, with waves of low pressure moving northward along it, will push off the mainland of the carolinas late Thu morning and offshore Thu afternoon. Gale conditions are expected late tonight into Thu afternoon. A secondary cold frontal passage will occur Friday followed by modest high pressure during this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Myrtle Grove, NC
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location: 34.11, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 232156
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
456 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
Warm weather will continue through tonight with increasing
chance of showers. Gusty showers and isolated thunderstorms
will accompany a cold front that will cross the area Thursday
morning. Dry high pressure will build in behind the front
Thursday afternoon into the weekend. The high will shift south
of the area early next week. Temperatures near to slightly below
normal into the weekend will start warming early next week.

Near term through Thursday
As of 415 pm Wednesday... The fa is now well into the warm sector

Well ahead of the strong eastward moving cold front that will
be working its way across the windward side of the appalachian
mountains early this evening. Various model soundings illustrate
moisture availability remains at or below 800 mb which at this
juncture is primarily involving atlantic ocean moisture. As a
result, have continued in carrying a low chance for light
rainshowers late this aftn and well into this evening. As the
mid-level S W trof continues it's progression eastward, it taps
plenty of gulf of mexico moisture and carrys it northward. Model
trends have been narrowing the highest moisture content of the
atm for this event, including gulf and atlantic combined
moisture, to occur prior to sunrise Thu thru midday thu. Models
indicate peak progged pws of 1.5 inches and excellent low level
wind shear, both speed and directional changes during this 6 to
9 hr time-line. However, instability is lacking which is usual
for this time of the year, ie. Low CAPE and high shear. With 50
kt winds progged at just 800 feet off the sfc, a well mixed
moderate to strong shower could produced a strong sfc wind gust
with thunder lacking. Will however, indicate isolated low chance
for thunder during the 6 to 9 hr peak of pcpn occurrence.

Termperatures will be running 3 to 4 categories above normal
which will make it seem even warmer given the brief arctic
temperatures experienced from Sun night thru late last night.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
As of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure will build in behind
exiting cold front thurs night through Fri night. A very broad
mid to upper level trough will remain over the eastern conus
though with high getting suppressed a bit further south heading
into the weekend. This leaves a generally drier and cooler air
mass over the area. Temps will drop a good 30 degrees thurs
night with temps down into the mid 30s by daybreak. The 850
temps drop out from near 12c thurs aftn down to -5 by Fri night.

This CAA will keep daytime highs below normal for Fri with most
places closer to 50 most of the aftn. Fri night will have a
better shot at more decent radiational cooling as winds lighten
with mainly clear skies. Temps should drop down below freezing
most places.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... A very broad mid to upper trough will
remain over the eastern conus. This will maintain more of a
progressive flow in the northern stream, while sfc high
pressure will remained sprawled across the deep south over the
weekend, migrating closer overhead by Monday. Overall expect dry
weather through the weekend into early next week with a good
deal of sunshine. Temps will be just on the cool side through
the weekend, but will begin to warm through early next week.

Models continue to show low pressure riding up off the
southeast coast early next week, but may be too far away to
produce any weather. The next appreciable chc of rain will most
likely come during the middle of next week as a cold front
reaches the area late tues into wed.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
As of 18z... Southeast winds will continue to increase this
afternoon as the gradient tightens in advance of a cold front.

Ceilings should remainVFR through the afternoon, with a light
shower possible at ilm. Tonight, winds shift to the south
southwest with gusts to 30 kts possible after midnight. Another
player could be sea fog tonight with dewpoints approaching 60f
and a southwest wind, however confidence is low due to the wind
speeds. Thursday, heavy showers, with isolated thunder, will be
ongoing at daybreak, ending from west to east at the end of the
forecast period.

Extended outlook... BecomingVFR by Thursday night. Predominately
vfr Friday through Monday.

Marine
Near term through Thursday ...

as of 400 pm Wednesday... Gale warning remains in effect for all
waters. The sfc pg will continue to tighten well ahead of the
eastward progression of the strong cold front now located on
the windward side of the appalachian mountain chain. By
daybreak thu, the north-south oriented cold front will be
located along the i-95 corridor. The tightened sfc pg will peak
thu morning just prior to the cfp. After fropa, models quickly
relax the sfc pg during Thu aftn. The CAA will not nearly be as
intense like what occurred Sun into Sun night due to the caa
involved is not of arctic origin. Winds will drop thru SCA thu
aftn and continue trending lower Thu night. Significant seas
will primarily be short period dominated, ie. Wind driven waves,
with no long period ground swell really involved. Seas will
peak in the 6 to 11 foot range with the highest seas off cape
fear and romaine respectively with the shallow shoals helping
with heights. "victory at sea conditions" will help describe the
rather chaotic seas due to wind direction changes during the
next 24 hrs. From the pre-dawn Thu hrs thru midday thu, expect
the best chances to see widespread showers with embedded
tstorms.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure will build in behind
exiting cold front. Winds and seas will remain elevated with
sca through thurs night in NW to N winds up to 15 to 20 kts
initially. By Fri morning, seas will diminish in off shore flow
and will continue on a downward trend through fri. Expect
lighter northerly winds Fri aftn through Fri night with seas
down under 4 ft.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure sprawled across the deep
south over the weekend will shift closer overhead and then off
the southeast coast by Sun night. This will generally maintain a
light off shore flow 5 to 10 kts most of the time and seas less
than 3 ft.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 1 am to 1 pm est Thursday for amz250-252-254-
256.

Synopsis... Rgz
near term... Dch
short term... Rgz
long term... Rgz
aviation... Dl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi48 min 54°F5 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi40 min S 16 G 21 59°F 54°F1021.1 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 7 mi48 min SSE 17 G 19 59°F 1021.2 hPa (-3.7)
WLON7 10 mi48 min 63°F 46°F1020.7 hPa (-3.4)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi40 min S 18 G 25 62°F 58°F1021.9 hPa
41108 29 mi18 min 53°F5 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi40 min SSE 9.7 G 12 56°F 52°F1020.4 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi28 min SE 23 G 27 67°F 64°F1021.5 hPa58°F
41064 47 mi40 min S 16 G 21 61°F 56°F1022.2 hPa
41159 47 mi48 min 56°F6 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC13 mi2.9 hrsSE 1310.00 miOvercast64°F54°F70%1022.7 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC18 mi2.5 hrsSSE 710.00 miOvercast62°F54°F77%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E4E4E3NE5NE4NE5N3N4NE3NE4E3CalmSE9SE10SE5SE4SE10SE11
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1 day agoN10N6N4N5N4CalmCalmCalmN3NE3NE4N5NE6NE6N4NE7NE10N6N8N6CalmE4E7E6
2 days ago--NW17NW17
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Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:27 AM EST     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:12 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:33 AM EST     4.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:04 PM EST     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:02 PM EST     4.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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20.9-0.2-0.8-0.70.11.52.83.94.54.64.13.11.90.7-0.2-0.6-0.30.71.82.93.743.8

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:44 AM EST     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:59 AM EST     4.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:12 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:21 PM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:28 PM EST     4.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.2-0.7-0.8-0.212.43.74.54.84.53.62.41.10-0.6-0.50.31.52.63.64.14.13.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.