Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 11:57 AM   Moonset 1:12 AM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1042 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Overnight - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Showers and tstms likely late this evening, then a slight chance of showers. Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Thu night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Fri - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Showers likely. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers.Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Sun night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Mon - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Mon night - N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 1042 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles -
a complex storm system will move away from the area waters overnight and Thu with weak high pressure following thru Fri. The next frontal system will affect the area Fri night thru much of the upcoming weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 160255 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1055 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into this evening ahead of a cold front that will drop in from the north. High pressure should bring dry weather Thursday with pleasant temperatures. Rain chances will increase again this weekend as a new storm system advances eastward. Drier and warmer weather should develop next week.

UPDATE
Last of the deep convection has moved off the ILM CWA Coast, Still may have some isolated showers or even a rumble of thunder thru midnight. Otherwise, skies should partially clear with residual mid and upper level clouds likely thru the night. This may help keep the potential fog and even low stratus to a minimum however guidance remains in odds with 1 another with this play. At this point, will indicate patchy fog since much of the CWA received rainfall. And with winds going NW to N less than 4 mph after FROPA, the susceptible locations could see further fog occurrence. Tonights lows look aok with very little tweaking needed.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper low will move through the area this afternoon and evening, bringing scattered thunderstorms to the area as it interacts with warm, moist air and a frontal boundary. Some of these storms could produce large hail and wind gusts of 60 mph or greater. The area is in a severe thunderstorm watch until 8 PM. Convection should come to an end this evening with dry weather expected Thursday. Lows tonight will fall to the lower 60s with highs Thursday in the lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
An H5 ridge axis will move across the area Thursday night and off the coast Friday morning. This change will allow the old low off the Mid-Atlantic coast to shift farther offshore and allow a dampening shortwave to move across the forecast area during Friday afternoon/evening with some increases in rainfall chances. Would trend with higher POPs by that time however moisture is still somewhat limited Friday for this part of the Carolinas, with better advection earlier on in the long term period. Blend of MAV/MET looks reasonable for the highs/lows during this period.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The mid/upper low will be across the MS Valley during Saturday and will direct impulses from the Deep South into the Carolinas along with an increase in PWATs (around 2 inches) during the day. GFS ensemble precipitation also suggest categorical to likely POPs will be needed. Sunday looks wet as well with the upper trough across the Carolinas. Big questions remain for the Monday-Tuesday with potential/positioning for a closed low development farther east than currently shown. If the cut-off occurs farther east then POPs will trend downward due to more influence of nearby mid/upper ridge across the Carolinas. At this time, favor the drier scenario Monday through Wednesday, but will need to closely watch how this evolves. Otherwise, highs will be at or above normal through Sunday, then below normal Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Worst of the convection will move off the mainland thru 10 pm EDT, with residual brief MVFR and possibly IFR convective flight restrictions. Could see gusts at 35+ kt at the coastal terminals as they move off the mainland into the local waters.
Otherwise, look at VFR at all terminals going into the pre-dawn Thu hrs initially. However, guidance indifferent with potential for IFR/LIFR low stratus and fog conditions in the 06Z-14Z window but have leaned toward the worst case scenario given the recent rains and light NW-N winds less than 4 kt. Any prevailing mid-level cloud deck would help aid the prevention of the worse case flight restrictions. Look for improvements to ceilings above MVFR by 15Z. Sfc pg rather relaxed and will initially indicate NNW-NNE winds around 5 kt after daybreak Thu with a weak sea breeze possible in the aftn.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions to dominate Thu night thru Fri. The next system with potential periodic flight restrictions will affect the area this weekend into Mon.

MARINE
Through Thursday...Southwest winds to 10 to 15 KT are expected tonight and will become N to NW by daybreak before becoming light and variable by afternoon. Seas of 3 to 5 FT tonight will subside to 2 to 4 FT Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday...A large area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drift farther offshore Thursday night into Friday. Approaching low pressure from the west will allow winds to become southerly during Saturday with veering Sunday as the low moves off the coast. Northerly winds are expected Monday with the low possibly off the NC/SC coast. If the low stays just offshore then the northerly winds will be higher.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Campbell Island
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Wed -- 02:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:20 AM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:12 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:04 PM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:14 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
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Campbell Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

Wilmington Beach
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Wed -- 01:39 AM EDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 08:07 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:21 PM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wilmington Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

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