Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Monrovia Island, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:45PM Thursday December 13, 2018 12:25 AM PST (08:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:25PMMoonset 11:35PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 840 Pm Pst Wed Dec 12 2018
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Fri night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft. Chance of showers.
PZZ600 840 Pm Pst Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 04z...or 8 pm pst, a 1034 mb surface high was over northeast nevada, while a 1021 mb thermal low was near san clemente island. Hazardous seas are possible Thursday through Saturday night across the outer and northern coastal waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Monrovia Island, CA
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location: 34.14, -118     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 130642
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1042 pm pst Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis 12 756 pm.

High pressure will bring breezy offshore winds and above normal
temperatures to the area on Thursday. A weak frontal system may
bring a few showers to northern areas late Friday, otherwise
mostly cloudy and cooler weather can be expected Friday, with
clearing skies Saturday. Increasing clouds Sunday will lead to a
chance of rain with a frontal system Sunday night into Monday,
followed by dry and warmer conditions through the middle of next
week.

Short term (wed-sat) 12 902 pm.

The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level ridge of high
pressure building into the west coast and a trough exits into the
rocky mountain region. Offshore flow is starting to develop
across the area as high pressure at the surface settles into the
great basin. Gusty santa ana winds are starting to develop in the
mountains. Chilao raws is gusting between 44 and 49 mph this
evening. Local 2-km and 3-km WRF solutions indicate winds
increasing across los angeles and ventura counties and becoming
more widespread into Thursday morning. A marginal wind advisory
was added for the ventura county valleys, the santa clarita
valley, and the los angeles and ventura county mountains. There
is a chance that wind advisories may need to be expanded into the
ventura county coast, san fernando valley and the santa monica
mountains on Thursday morning. Kcma guidance near 17 knots at 10
am Monday. With confidence a bit lower for winds in the coast
hitting advisory levels, a wind advisory for the areas listed
above was tabled for now.

In wind-sheltered areas, temperatures will dip closer to freezing
tonight. Temperatures were tweaked down in the usual wind
sheltered areas such as the central coast, the santa ynez and ojai
valleys, and the cuyama and antelope valley. A frost advisory was
added for the ojai valley later tonight.

Otherwise, a warming and drying trend should take shape for
Thursday after a cool start for some areas.

*** from previous discussion ***
offshore gradients weaken quite a bit Friday as the ridge quickly
exits and the next trough arrives along the west coast. Onshore
trends along with what is expected to be a thick high cloud
shield will knock a few degrees of Thursday's temps, especially
coast valleys.

The tail end of a weakening cold front will move through Friday
night. Models have been going back and forth on whether there will
be enough left of the front to drop rain across the central coast.

The operational GFS and ECMWF models wash out the front before
landfall but the NAM and several of the GEFS members do show some
very light precip at least clipping the northwest section of slo
county so will keep some low chances there. Otherwise, very little
impact with skies clearing Saturday. Temps on the cool side still
with highs in the 60s most lower elevation locations.

Long term (sun-wed) 12 155 pm.

Sunday will almost be an exact duplicate of Saturday except for
an increase in high clouds through the afternoon ahead of the next
system for Sunday night and Monday. This one has a little more
staying power as the upper level trough is deeper and colder with
more energy than the previous system. This should easily hold
together well enough to bring rain to areas north of pt
conception, albeit pretty light. Not quite as confident in the
south because the ECMWF really weakens the front after it moves
around pt conception. The GEFS ensembles are mixed on the idea as
well so will go with relatively high pops up north but only 30-50
in the south for now until models can get a better handle on it.

It's a low impact system either way as rain amounts are not
expected to exceed a half inch and rates won't come close to
posing issues for burn areas. Maybe some light snow accumulations
in the mountains.

Then turning sunny again Tue Wed with increasing offshore flow. An
upper ridge builds in pretty fast so temps will be warming up
quickly especially with the offshore flow. By Wed we should be
well up into the 70s and possibly even some lower 80s by Thu if
forecast gradients stay about where they are or get stronger.

Could be a low end advisory level santa ana event Tue wed. Dry and
warm weather expected to last through the end of next week.

Aviation 13 0152z.

At 00z, the marine layer depth was around 1900 feet deep at klax.

The top of the inversion as near 3000 feet with a temperature near
14 degrees celsius.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. There is a
chance of MVFR conditions at los angeles county coastal terminals
through 08z and a chance of lifr conditions at kprb between 08z
and 18z. Moderate wind shear and turbulence is possible at los
angeles and ventura county terminals after 06z.

Klax...VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. There is
a 30 percent chance of MVFR conditions at klax through 07z. There
is 10 percent chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence
between 06z and 17z. There is a 20 percent chance of east winds
between 7 and 10 knots between 11z and 16z.

Kbur...VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. There is
10 percent chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence between
06z and 17z.

Marine 12 902 pm.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. A large
northwest swell will gradually build into the coastal waters
through the weekend. Hazardous seas will develop across outer and
northern coastal waters through Thursday then likely continue for
periods through the weekend and into next week. Between Sunday and
Tuesday, the swell will build to very large levels and possibly
affect to west and northwest facing harbors, including morro bay.

Ventura harbor could also be affected on Monday.

Beaches 12 559 pm.

An extended period of high surf continues to be likely at central
coast beaches Thursday through Monday. There is a 50 percent
chance of very large and potentially damaging surf developing over
the upcoming weekend and into early next week. The latest swell
models build a west-northwest swell to between 18-22 feet off the
central california coast with periods between 19 and 20 seconds.

Swell energy could possibly push into southern california bight
between Sunday and Monday.

If swells develop inline with model guidance, surf of 15-20 feet
with sets up to 25 feet is possible at west and northwest facing
beaches along the central coast between Sunday night and Tuesday.

South of point conception, west facing shores could potentially
see surf between 8-12 feet with sets to 15 feet.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Wind advisory in effect until 3 am pst Thursday for zone 34. (see laxnpwlox).

High surf advisory in effect from 6 am Thursday to 8 pm pst
Saturday for zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until noon pst Thursday for zones
44-45-53-54-88. (see laxnpwlox).

Frost advisory in effect from 2 am to 9 am pst Thursday for
zone 44. (see laxnpwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect from 3 am
Thursday to 9 am pst Friday for zones 645-673. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 9 am
pst Friday for zone 670. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect from 9 am
Thursday to 9 am pst Friday for zone 676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
Very high surf and dangerous rip currents are expected Monday and
Tuesday.

Public... Hall mw
aviation... Hall
marine... Hall
beaches... Hall
synopsis... Sirard
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSXC1 28 mi56 min Calm G 0
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 28 mi56 min Calm G 1.9 57°F 62°F1022.5 hPa
PFXC1 29 mi56 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 57°F
BAXC1 29 mi62 min N 1.9 G 2.9
PRJC1 30 mi56 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9
PXAC1 30 mi56 min W 1 G 1.9
PFDC1 31 mi56 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 32 mi56 min 1022.5 hPa
46256 32 mi56 min 62°F2 ft
AGXC1 32 mi56 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9 57°F 1022.4 hPa
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 39 mi56 min 62°F4 ft
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 40 mi56 min 62°F3 ft
46253 40 mi56 min 63°F3 ft

Wind History for Los Angeles Pier S, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brackett Field Airport, CA12 mi3.6 hrsNW 310.00 miFair50°F50°F100%1022 hPa
Los Angeles / USC Campus Downtown, CA17 mi39 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist53°F50°F89%1021.9 hPa
Fullerton, Fullerton Municipal Airport, CA19 mi33 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist51°F48°F89%1021.9 hPa
Burbank - Bob Hope Airport, CA20 mi33 minNW 39.00 miFair50°F45°F83%1021.4 hPa
Ontario International Airport, CA22 mi33 minVar 35.00 miFog/Mist50°F46°F89%1022.3 hPa
Chino, Chino Airport, CA22 mi33 minN 00.25 miFog45°F44°F97%1022.8 hPa
Hawthorne, Hawthorne Municipal Airport, CA23 mi33 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist54°F52°F93%1022.1 hPa
Long Beach, Long Beach Airport, CA23 mi33 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist52°F50°F93%1022.2 hPa
Los Angeles, Whiteman Airport, CA23 mi4.5 hrsN 010.00 miClear55°F50°F82%1022.7 hPa
Los Alamitos Army Airfield, CA24 mi88 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist52°F51°F100%1022.6 hPa

Wind History from EMT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm----------------------CalmCalmNE4Calm--CalmCalmS3S3S4SW3Calm
1 day agoCalm----------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmW4SW5SW5SW4S7S4
2 days agoCalm----------------------CalmCalmW44S4CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalm--

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Monica, Municipal Pier, California (2)
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Santa Monica
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Thu -- 02:36 AM PST     3.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM PST     3.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:26 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:09 PM PST     4.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:58 PM PST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:37 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.93.33.63.63.53.43.23.23.33.53.844.14.13.83.22.61.91.30.90.80.91.31.9

Tide / Current Tables for Long Beach, Inner Harbor, California
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Long Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:37 AM PST     3.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:45 AM PST     3.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:25 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:10 PM PST     4.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:57 PM PST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:36 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.93.33.53.53.43.33.13.13.23.43.73.94.143.73.22.51.91.30.90.70.91.31.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Santa Ana Mtns, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.