Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:13 AM

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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 251 Am Pdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Today - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon, except 15 to 20 kt from anacapa island to malibu. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.Tonight - W winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Mon night - W winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming se 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Tue night - W winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming se 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt early, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft.

PZZ600 251 Am Pdt Sun Apr 28 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 09z, or 2 am pdt, a 1030 mb high was centered 800 nm west of point conception. A 1003 mb low was centered in colorado. Strong to gale force nw winds and dangerous choppy seas will affect the outer waters for much of the time into the middle of the week, frequently spreading into the northern inner waters and the santa barbara channel.

FXUS66 KLOX 281800 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1100 AM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
28/906 AM.

Some coastal low clouds and fog will be possible each night and morning through late this week, otherwise mostly clear skies with warmer temperatures can be expected during the period. Gusty west to north winds will prevail over the mountains and deserts at least through Monday.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...28/905 AM.

***UPDATE***

There were some low clouds noted this morning over the Salinas River Vly and the inland SBA Central Coast to the Santa Ynez Vly.
These low clouds will likely dissipate by late this morning.
Otherwise, mostly sunny skies covered the forecast area this morning with little change expected thru the afternoon.

Gusty W to N winds to Advisory levels will affect portions of the forecast area at times thru today, including the SW SBA County mtns and coast, VTU County mtns, L.A. County mtns along the I-5 Corridor, and the western Antelope Vly foothills into the Antelope Vly. A Wind Advisory is in effect for these areas, where winds could gust to 45 to 50 mph especially this afternoon. Breezy to gusty W-NW winds will also affect much of the coast and adjacent vlys thru this afternoon, strongest on the Central Coast where winds could approach Advisory levels at times.

Some upper level ridging will move into the forecast area today, with H5 heights increasing to around 576 dam. This will help temps to warm up a few more degrees over yesterday and be near normal to a few degrees above normal for many areas away from the immediate coast this afternoon. Highs for the inland coast to the vlys and lower mtns should reach the 70s to around 80.

***From Previous Discussion***

Not much going on in the short term other than some winds and a slow increase in the amount of night through morning low clouds.
The main storm track is well north of the area and NW slightly cyclonic flow will be over the area today and Monday on Tuesday the flow will turn a little more westerly and a little more cyclonic. At the sfc a large high pressure system to the WNW of the Bay Area will bring strong NW winds to the waters and the Central Coast. A meso sfc high near Bakersfield will keep northerly offshore flow going across eastern SBA county, VTA county and western LA county.

Monday will be much like today just a little better low clouds coverage. The winds will continue through the afternoon. There is a decent chc (30-40 percent) that wind advisories will be need to be extended into Tuesday. Another 1 to 2 degrees of warming will bring max temps to normals or a degree above.

The offshore flow from the north increases to 6mb on Tuesday morning. The canyon winds will likely extend down from the mtns and into the vlys and then the csts as it passes through various N/S passes and canyons. Short range high rez ensembles indicate only a low chc (25 percent) of advisory level winds across VTA/LA counties but a much higher chc (70 percent) across the western half of southern SBA county.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...28/310 AM.

The EC and GFS mean ensembles and deterministic are in generally good agreement thru Thursday with broad pos tilt troffing on Wednesday giving way to NW flow on Thursday. There will only be minimal low clouds on Wednesday mostly across the LA county south coast. Lower hgts and stronger onshore flow will bring 2 to 4 degrees of cooling to most areas. High pressure is fcst to move into NV on Thursday morning and will set up offshore flow from both the N and E. A low end Santa Ana wind event will develop.
There will be no low clouds and 3 to 6 degrees of warming.

There is not much mdl agreement either in the deterministic side or ensemble side of things for the Friday and Saturday forecast.
fortunately the consequences will not be great the EC fcst will be cooler with more marine layer clouds and the GFS fcst will trend warmer with less marine layer clouds.

AVIATION
28/1758Z.

At 17Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1700 ft deep. The top of the very weak inversion was around 2700 ft with a temp of 13C.

High confidence forecast except coastal TAFs KSMX and south including KLAX. There is a 50-70 percent chance of MVFR/IFR cigs between roughly 08-18Z for KLAX/KLGB/KSMO, 30-50 percent chance for KSMX/KOXR and a 10-20 percent chance for KSBA/KBUR.

Gusty NW-N winds expected for northern and interior TAFs may be off by 5 kts at times.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of low MVFR to IFR cigs 13Z-17Z today. There is a 30% chance of conds remaining VFR tonight. No east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF with VFR conds thru the pd.

MARINE
28/911 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will very likely increase to gale force late morning through early evening across the outer waters today. A very long period of gale force winds is expected, continuing thru at least Tue night. Winds will occasionally drop below gale thresholds, but for the most part, gales are expected across much of the outer waters much of the time. SCA conds are expected Wed thru Thu, with a 30% chance of gales persisting into Wed evening.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds are likely thru Tue night, especially in the afternoon/eve hours. There is a 50% chance of SCA conds during the afternoon/eve hours Wed/Thu. Seas are expected to be near SCA levels during the periods of weaker winds. There is a 25% chance of gale force winds during the afternoon/eve hours today thru Tue.

In the SBA Channel, SCA level W-NW winds are expected across western portions during the afternoon thru late night hours today thru Wed. There is a 50% chance of SCA conds across the eastern portions late this afternoon and evening, and a 40% chance during the afternoon and evening hours Mon thru Tue.

In the southern inner waters, there is a 40% chance of SCA level W to NW winds across northwestern portions, mainly from Anacapa Island to Malibu during the late afternoon thru late evening hours thru Tue.

Widespread strong to gale force winds will keep dangerous sea conditions across much of the coastal waters (particularly the outer waters) thru the middle of the week, with short-period, steep, and choppy waves. There may be dangerous breaking waves near west-facing harbors. Mariners should plan accordingly.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 PM PDT Monday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT Monday for zones 376>378-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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