Thursday, April25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Lake, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 7:52PM Thursday April 25, 2019 8:33 PM EDT (00:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:12AMMoonset 10:25AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 551 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Scattered tstms with a chance of showers late.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely with numerous tstms.
Fri night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers and scattered tstms in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 551 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will approach Friday and moves through Friday evening, with small craft advisory conditions, Thunderstorms and shifting winds expected. High pressure returns for Saturday before another front impacts the area later Sunday and early Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Lake, NC
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location: 34.14, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 252322
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
722 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019

Synopsis
Fair and mild weather overnight, ahead of a cold front on
Friday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few
could be strong with damaging wind gusts Friday. Cooler and
drier air to move in Saturday with sunshine on tap, with a
noticeable warming trend Sunday. A mainly dry cold front will
cross the coast Sunday night with cooling Monday. A warm up
to slightly above normal is expected for a good portion of
next week.

Near term through Friday
As of 525 pm Thursday... Main concern this period thunderstorm
chances for Friday, with some severe storms possible of
producing damaging wind gusts within the strongest storms. Main
dynamics look the best in the morning when surface heating is at
a minimum based on model soundings across the area, but lifting
with the front and available shear in the 0-6 km profile are
suggestive of potential for severe thunderstorms to develop. The
latest projected soundings also show a decent amount of dry air
aloft, translating into potential for severe wind
gusts... Although models have swayed a bit on which level the dry
air will be located. All parameters considered, many do not
line up together for the same time frame, as of this writing.

Any chances for alignment could increase chances for severe
thunderstorms, but main areas of concern are for north carolina
locations and northward.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the day Friday
with gusty winds, and the front will exit the area by Friday
evening ending precipitation chances.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 330 pm Thursday... Showers and thunderstorms exit Friday
evening as the cold front passes across the region. High
pressure returns for the weekend with cooler conditions than
the past several days, but with highs closer to normal in the
mid to upper 70s on Saturday. No precipitation is expected
Saturday and Saturday night.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 330 pm Thursday... Weak cold front moves into the area
late sun, with minimal disruption to flow aloft. In fact mid-
level pattern remains pretty flat and do wonder if the front
ends up stalled north of the area. Surface high off the coast
starts to expand back toward the coast Mon and by Tue 5h ridge
starts to build north. All signs point to a dry period with only
a slight chance of isolated showers late sun.

-weak cold front moves toward the area later sun, becoming
little more than a wind shift Sun night.

-front starts to dissipate Mon as bermuda high expands west
-temps above climo for much of the period, highs Mon could be
the only exception if the front moves south of the area.

Aviation 22z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 0z... .PredominantlyVFR this forecast period, with brief MVFR
conditions possible due to decreased visibility in heavier
precipitation storms. Scattered cirrus across the area will increase
in coverage before mid-level clouds move in by early morning, followed
by low level clouds tomorrow afternoon ahead of approaching cold front.

Chance of scattered storms overnight through tomorrow before the
front arrives, though this coverage may be very limited. Best chances
for precipitation arrives around 18z tomorrow with the front, clearing
the area around end of TAF period. Chance of isolated thunderstorm
tomorrow morning through evening, with chance of a severe wind gust or
two, but not confident enough for either to occur at a specific
terminal so have kept out of the tafs for now. Southerlies around 10kt
overnight veer to strong southwesterlies tomorrow ahead of front with
sustained around 15kts and gusts in the 20s. Winds become westerly at
end of period behind front.

Extended outlook... BorderlineVFR MVFR conditions as a cold front
pushes through our area.VFR returns on Saturday and will be
predominantlyVFR through end of period.

Marine
As of 555 pm Thursday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions
tonight with high pressure centered SE of the area and a cold
front west of the area. 10-15 kt SW winds this morning increase
to 15-20 kt this aftn tonight with seas up to 3-4 ft.

Approaching cold front will bring increased winds, so concerns
for small craft operating offshore Friday are likely with
increased winds, waves, and thunderstorms. Small craft advisory
Friday into Friday night.

Strong offshore flow in the wake of a cold front and associated mid-
level trough will likely maintain small craft advisory conditions,
mainly seas over 6 ft, across the waters into early sat. Winds back
from northwest Sat morning to southwest in the afternoon as the
center of the high slips south of the area. Winds drops under 10 kt
sat with seas also trending down. As early as daybreak Sat seas will
be 2 to 4 ft, dropping to 2 ft or less in the afternoon.

Southwest flow increases Sun as gradient becomes more defined and
weak cold front moves into the area. Solid 15 kt expected sun
afternoon with flow becoming light and northerly as a weak front
moves into the area. Still some uncertainty late in the period,
whether or not the boundary pushes south of the waters, followed by
northeast flow. Gradient does not look very impressive either way
and speeds are likely to be around 10 kt. Seas build to 3 to 4 ft
later Sun and stay 3 to 4 ft mon.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am Friday to midnight edt Friday
night for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... 8
near term... Mck
short term... Mck
long term... Mck
aviation... Vao
marine... Mck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 6 mi33 min 73°F 68°F1012.7 hPa (+0.6)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi33 min SW 13 G 19 74°F 69°F1012.7 hPa (+0.6)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi25 min WSW 16 G 19 70°F 69°F1012.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi33 min 68°F3 ft
41108 29 mi33 min 68°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi25 min W 14 G 19 71°F 69°F1012.9 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi25 min SSW 16 G 23 69°F 69°F1013 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC10 mi40 minSW 1210.00 miFair73°F55°F55%1012.5 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi53 minSW 9 G 1510.00 miFair70°F62°F77%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW9SW6SW6SW6SW8SW6SW4SW4SW6SW3W7SW6W9SW10SW10SW11SW10S10SW17SW12
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1 day agoSW8SW9S9SW9
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SW10SW10SW8SW7SW9SW10W9W10W6SW6SW65S3CalmSW10SW10SW11
2 days agoS5SW5SW3CalmCalmW3W4CalmW4CalmW3W3W3W5W443CalmSE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:10 AM EDT     4.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:01 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:39 PM EDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:01 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.94.13.93.42.61.91.20.60.30.71.62.43.13.43.53.12.31.61.10.70.50.81.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:55 AM EDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:46 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:24 PM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:46 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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33.84.24.44.13.42.61.81.20.60.40.91.92.83.43.73.73.12.31.510.60.51

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.