Thursday, August17, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 8:04PM Thursday August 17, 2017 2:02 AM EDT (06:02 UTC) Moonrise 1:18AMMoonset 3:39PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1005 Pm Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
Overnight..S to sw winds 10 kt or less. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1005 Pm Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak pressure pattern will persist across the waters through the week. A cold front will drop from the northwest Thu and stall across the central carolinas by late this week and likely remaining stalled thru the upcoming weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, SC
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location: 34.14, -79.74     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 170528
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
128 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

Summertime heat and humidity will continue across the area
through Friday with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Convection coverage will increase during the weekend into early
next week as a cold front approaches from the northwest late
Friday and stalls just inland from the coast thru the weekend
and continuing into early next week.

Near term through today
As of 1000 pm Wednesday... Updated to include pops late this
evening and into the pre-dawn Thu hrs.

The dynamics, ie. Pva, associated with the mid- level vort
across north central nc, continues to ignite isolated convection
which has now bled into the ilm cwa, west of the i-95 corridor
ie. Marlboro and darlington counties. Dillon and robeson
counties will be next as this mid-level vort pushes eastward
thru 1 am thu. There-after, kept pops below 15 percent.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..

As of 845 pm Wednesday... Majority of the convection across the
ilm CWA is weakening and dissipating given the loss of the days
insolation. Plenty of interacting sfc boundaries that helped
with the forcing portion of enabling convection to occur.

However, with the loss of heating, so GOES the fuel or CAPE to
sustain these storms. However, there is a weak mid-level S w
trof progged to push eastward across north central nc this
evening and overnight that could develop a few storms that may
come close to the ilm cwa. For now, will mention it here in this
discussion but hold off from raising overnight pops. Have
basically tweaked overnite hrly temps and dewpts upwards to
account for latest trends and what 18z progs indicated for the
overnight period. Could see winds decouple late this evening
and overnight and could give rise to possible ground fog
especially locations that receive rainfall from today's

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... With dewpoints in the mid 70's and
temperatures in the upper 80's to low 90's, heat indices have
reached at or just above 100 degrees across much of the area
already. The heat advisory will remain in effect through this
afternoon for portions of the area.

Latest visible satellite illustrates quite the healthy CU field
across the area, while latest radar imagery only shows a few
showers and thunderstorms which have developed outside of the
forecast area. With latest guidance, do continue to expect
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
this afternoon into the early evening hours with the assistance
of the the afternoon sea breeze and piedmont trough. Any
convection that does develop will dissipate later tonight , with
conditions remaining fairly quiet overnight with overnight low
temperatures in the mid 70's. Patchy areas of fog are possible
towards the morning hours.

On Thursday, upper level ridging will move into the carolinas
ahead of the approaching cold front which is progged for later
this week. However, even with ridging in place, some available
moisture, low level convergence and lingering boundaries, have
kept in slight chance chance pops for isolated to scattered
convection. The heat will be of discussion again as well, as
higher dewpoints combined with temperatures in the each aftn
and evening thru the weekend. Low to mid 90's will likely
allow heat indices to reach 100 degrees, with some locations
reaching advisory criteria.

Short term tonight through Friday night
As of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure will give way Thursday
night as a piedmont trough develops over the carolina's on
Friday ahead of a cold front that will move into the central
carolinas by early Saturday morning.

The deep 2+ inch precipitable water will continues its hold
over the area through this period. Convection is expected on
Friday and Friday night with the established trough and the
approaching cold front. With the 850 millibar temperatures
hitting the 19 to 20c range expect another hot day with
possible heat advisories for portions of the forecast area.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Cold front stalled either just to our
west or even over western counties on Saturday while moderately
strong trough crosses through the northeast and midatlantic.

Thunderstorm coverage should be elevated above the norm.

Thunderstorm coverage may also not show the normal diurnal
decrease due to the presence of the boundary. The higher
concentration of storms will be over northern zones where there
also may be a small severe weather threat. Temperatures will be
running close to normal. The boundary will show little movement
into Sunday but height rises aloft will be underway. Overall
expect a downward trend in storm coverage and a warmer

Attention to Monday's forecast continues to increase each day
due to the solar eclipse. Unfortunately there isn't much
different in the way of thinking and even less fortunate the
news isn't great. True the front will be weakening but
convective signals in the models are still suggesting ample
moisture for considerable coverage of thunderstorms that
afternoon. The silver lining could be the rising heights aloft,
possibly capping thunderstorm formation until after the eclipse
or at least its peak. Even so all it takes is one vigorous
towering cumulus to ruin the view over a given location.

By Tuesday the front no longer appears in the models but a well
defined piedmont trough develops. Thunderstorms forming within
this boundary and moving east paired with seabreeze activity
calls for scattered pops just about area-wide. By Wednesday some
mid level troughiness starts breaking into the area in
association with a large trough forming north of the great
lakes. A continued moist boundary layer paired with energetic nw
flow likely means a continuation of the unsettled weather.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 06z... Expect mostlyVFR conditions through the period.

Guidance is once again showing fog inland for the morning hours
although not necessarily ifr. I did include tempo groups for lbt
and flo to address. With some mid level forcing moving through
later this morning convection should develop early on and be
somewhat more widespread than Wednesday. All stations have vcts
for some parts of the daytime hours.

Extended outlook... A brief period of MVFR ifr conditions can
not be ruled out in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Friday afternoon and evening. More
widespread convection is expected this weekend.

Near term tonight through Thursday ...

as of 845 pm Wednesday... Outflow from convection over the
mainland will temporarily push across portions of the local
waters and temporarily disrupt the weak synoptic flow. Overall,
wind speeds will run 5 to 10 kt and that may even be too high.

Wind directions will be a challenge until the outflows
dissipate and or get absorbed in the overall weak synoptic
flow. Significant seas will run around 2 ft and primarily be a
function of a 1 to 2 foot ese ground swell at 7 to 8 second

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .

As of 300 pm Wednesday... Conditions will remain fairly quiet
across the waters as hurricane gert continues to move well
away from the waters, off to the northeast. Southwest winds
up to 10 kts tonight will veer to the north and then northeast
Thursday morning, and back to the southeast by the afternoon
hours. Winds will remain around 5 to 10 kts. Seas will be
around 2 to 3 ft.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Winds will be from the south and will
veer to the southwest of Friday and Friday night ahead of a
cold front that will stall inland. This will increase the winds
from around 10 knots to 15 knots late Friday. Seas will
respond by increasing from around 2 to 3 feet to 3 to 4 feet
late Friday night.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... A front will be stalled over land
over the weekend and into Monday in a weakening state. This
boundary will serve a similar function to the piedmont trough
normally seen during the warm season and we should still see a
fairly typical southwesterly flow. Seas will run 2 to 4 ft for
the most part, highest offshore in the coast-parallel flow.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Drh
near term... Dch sgl
short term... Drh
long term... mbb
aviation... Shk

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 53 mi73 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 78°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 55 mi45 min 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Florence - Florence Regional Airport, SC4 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair77°F77°F100%1016.6 hPa
Marion County Airport, SC22 mi68 minN 07.00 miOvercast75°F73°F94%1016.9 hPa
Darlington, Darlington County Jetport Airport, SC23 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair78°F75°F93%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from FLO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmNW3NW3CalmN3N4N4N3N4NE4N4NE3CalmSE6SW4E4E8SE5SE3S3E4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS3CalmCalmW4CalmSW3SW5W5CalmCalmSW6W6SW8W6SW8W5W3W4CalmCalmSW8SW4CalmNW3
2 days agoCalmE4E3CalmSE3CalmS3Calm3SE4W5E3CalmCalmSE11SE9SE7SE6S4S5S4CalmS3SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Rhems, Black Mingo Creek, Black River, South Carolina
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Thu -- 02:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:37 AM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:23 AM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:50 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:04 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Thu -- 02:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:47 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:30 AM EDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:56 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.