Thursday, March23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 7:34PM Thursday March 23, 2017 2:17 AM EDT (06:17 UTC) Moonrise 3:22AMMoonset 2:10PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 914 Pm Edt Wed Mar 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Overnight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Fri..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft...then 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 914 Pm Edt Wed Mar 22 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Canadian high pressure will build southward into the mid-atlantic states through Thursday, then will move offshore for the weekend. A weak cold front will approach the waters on Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, SC
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location: 34.14, -79.74     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 230523
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
120 am edt Thu mar 23 2017

Freezing temperatures are expected over portions of the area
tonight as strong canadian high pressure builds south. As this
high moves offshore Friday and during the weekend, a significant
warm-up will ensue. Minor rain chances are expected Sunday as a
weak upper disturbance passes well to our north.

Near term /through Thursday/
As of 900 pm Wednesday... Scattered to broken mid clouds were
eroding from the N this eve as strong chilly high pressure
centered across the great lakes continued to build across the
carolinas. Skies will be mainly clear overnight.

Temps were still in the 50s at mid eve. However, with clear
skies and lighter winds overnight, we still expect lows to drop
into the 30s. Across north carolina, all but coastal areas are
still expected to drop to near or just below freezing and a
freeze warning will continue. Across south carolina, lows
should remain above freezing and so no freeze warning has been
issued. Frost is not expected throughout given the dry air.

Dewpoints still vary significantly across the forecast area.

Dewpoints were in the 20s across our inland zones while still in
the mid 30s to mid 40s at the coast at mid eve. Dewpoints will
level out in the 20s throughout overnight with lower 30s confined
to portions of the immediate coast.

Wind speeds will remain in the 5 to 10 mph range inland overnight.

At the coast, where the gradient was tightest, winds were still
gusting in the 15 to 20 mph range this eve. Wind speeds at the
coast overnight should decrease to 5 to 15 mph as high pressure
gains proximity.

Thursday will be dry and unseasonably cool as the coldest air
moves overhead. Expect highs only in the mid to upper 50s.

Short term /Thursday night through Friday night/
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Cold canadian high pressure will move
eastward shifting from the mid atlantic coast farther off shore
through fri. This will allow a return flow to set up with
increasing moisture and warmth. Initially, though, the dense
shallow cold air mass in place will set the stage for very cold
temps once again thurs night. Models are showing a coastal
trough becoming more defined overnight Fri as high pressure
wedges in over inland areas with lighter NE winds while just off
shore a more easterly wind develops pushing moisture on shore.

Most places should be a few degrees warmer than previous
night... Mid 30s for the low, but would expect some
traditionally cooler spots to drop toward freezing. The moisture
return will bring rh values above 80% overnight thurs and this
will allow some frost to develop under decent radiational
cooling conditions as skies remain mainly clear and winds drop
off thurs eve. Upon the expiration of the freeze warning for
tonight, there will be an evaluation as to which counties would
need an frost advisory or possibly another freeze warning. The
most likely candidates would be pender and bladen counties, but
other spots mainly across nc could surely see frost if forecast
remains on track.

As high pressure shifts farther off the mid atlantic coast on
Friday, a southeasterly return flow will bring warmer and
moister air into the area while a deeper SW to W flow will
develop aloft. Mid to upper ridge will build up the southeast
coast with heights rising and 850 temps return up near 7c fri
aftn. This will push temps back up toward normal... Closer to 70
most places. The on shore flow will keep places closer to the
cooler waters in the 60s. There may be some clouds around, but
pcp will remain at bay through the period and overall there will
be a good deal of march sunshine. Temps on Fri night will remain
at or above normal.

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/
As of 300 am Wednesday... Return flow underway on Saturday
expected to bring unseasonable warmth. Upper ridge axis should
stay close enough to the coast to keep mid levels fairly dry.

This changes fairly quickly Saturday night into Sunday and
moisture depth may increase. Two large shortwaves try to impinge
upon our upper ridge but appear to largely be shunted over it
to the north. It appears that late period moisture depth may
actually decrease. So while some minor late weekend rain chances
may materialized they should dwindle heading into next week.

Daytime highs will remain above climo, generally in the mid to
upper 70s but trending towards 80 inland late in the period.

Nighttime lows will similarly be mild, and the deviations from
climo will tend to mirror the degree of cloud cover.

Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/
As of 06z... Skies have cleared and will remain so through the taf
cycle. Similarly there will be no visibility restrictions so the
entire forecast will featureVFR. Wind will remain out of the NE to
e as high pressure remains to our north.

Extended outlook... Fog possible Thursday night. OtherwiseVFR.

Near term /through Thursday/...

as of 900 pm Wednesday... Small craft advisory will remain in
effect through Thursday as a cold and dry surge works south.

Conditions will begin to moderate Thu afternoon as the center
of a chilly airmass gains proximity and the pressure gradient
slackens. Expect ene to NE winds of 20 to 25 kt diminishing to
15 to 20 kt during thu. Seas will peak in the 4 to 7 ft range
and then begin to subside during thu.

Short term /Thursday night through Friday night/...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure will shift farther off
the mid atlantic coast through the period. This will allow a
return flow to set up with winds shifting around from NE thurs
evening to e-se through Fri and southerly by Sat morning. The
models are hinting at a coastal trough overnight thurs which
may act to produce enhance a more NE flow near the coast with a
greater easterly flow off shore. Either way, an on shore flow
will be the rule through much of the period diminishing to 10
kts or less. This will allow seas to subside from near 3 to 4 ft
thurs eve down to 3 ft or less Fri morning.

Long term /Saturday through Monday/...

as of 300 am Wednesday... The above normal temperatures will
give a clue as to expected marine conditions. That is, the area
will be in a return flow regime around sprawling atlantic high
pressure. Wind will thus be southerly and for the most part be
capped at 10 kt though a few higher gusts certainly hard to rule
out. A minor increase in the long shore swell energy could make
for an increased presence of 4 ft seas along the outer portions
later Sunday in an otherwise 2 to 3 ft wave environment.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Freeze warning from 4 am to 9 am edt Thursday for ncz087-096-

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Thursday for amz250-252-

Near term... Rjd/rek
short term... Rgz
long term... mbb
aviation... mbb

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 53 mi47 min ESE 6 G 8.9 50°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 55 mi47 min 1028.7 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Florence - Florence Regional Airport, SC4 mi24 minE 910.00 miFair47°F24°F41%1029.4 hPa
Marion County Airport, SC22 mi22 minE 610.00 miFair45°F33°F66%1030.1 hPa
Darlington, Darlington County Jetport Airport, SC23 mi21 minENE 910.00 miFair46°F24°F42%1030.6 hPa

Wind History from FLO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN3W4CalmW4NW5N11N8N15
1 day agoSW8S7S5SW6SW7SW7SW8W7W844W4CalmW9W8
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3CalmE33--55

Tide / Current Tables for Rhems, Black Mingo Creek, Black River, South Carolina
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Thu -- 04:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:48 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:56 AM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:31 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:13 PM EDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Thu -- 04:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:51 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:16 PM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:41 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.