Friday, November17, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 5:14PM Friday November 17, 2017 7:59 PM EST (00:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:55AMMoonset 5:08PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 340 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Tonight..E winds 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 kt or less, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft late.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 kt or less. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft, then 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ200 340 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will settle over the waters tonight before shifting off the coast Saturday. A strong cold front will move across the waters and offshore Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will build over the waters Sunday through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, SC
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location: 34.14, -79.74     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 172324
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
624 pm est Fri nov 17 2017

A cool night tonight will be followed by a breezy warmup on
Saturday ahead of a strong cold front. The front may be
accompanied by some gusty showers as it sweeps across the area
and offshore late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Much
colder and drier air will be ushered in for Sunday and into
early next week and we have a reasonable chance of a widespread
freeze. Temperatures will moderate Tuesday and Wednesday.

Uncertainty increases mid and late next week as another cold
front moves into the area and forecast will hinge on the track
of developing low pressure in the gulf of mexico.

Near term through Saturday
As of 300 pm Friday... Cool and dry airmass will remain in place
through tonight as canadian high pressure migrates south and
east. The center of the high will settle almost directly
overhead tonight before shifting off the coast by daybreak
Saturday. This will produce ideal radiational cooling with near
very light to calm winds and clear skies. Once the atmosphere
decouples after sunset temps should drop off quite rapidly. The
very dry air mass in place will produce a large diurnal swing
with temps dropping into the mid to upper 30s most places just
inland. Inland soundings show temps dropping just enough to
produce a very shallow saturated layer. There may be just enough
very shallow moisture to produce some patchy frost which I have
included in the grids inland. Places along the coast may see
some marine moisture produce some fog or a few lower clouds
advecting on shore under subsidence inversion toward morning.

Heading through Saturday, the winds will shift to the south in a
deeper increasing low level return flow as a cold front begins to
make its way toward the carolinas from the northwest later in the
day. Pcp water values down near a quarter of inch through this
evening race back up as high shifts off the coast into sat. Moisture
profiles show potential for some mainly lower and high clouds
through the day on Saturday, but plenty of mid level dry air and
subsidence will keep any pcp out of the forecast until after the
near term period when cold front moves in. May see decent cloud
layer under subsidence inversion just under 6k ft by 21z.

Overall expect a breezy and warm day as temps recover nicely in
waa. The 850 temps jump back up to near 12c through Sat aftn.

Temps will reach up into the 70s most places, but an increase
in clouds may hold back temps a bit.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As of 300 pm Friday... Impressive cold front due Saturday night.

And though the baroclinicity is considerable and wind fields
quite strong guidance continues to insist on a low QPF event.

Given the quick movement of the boundary and its associated
forcing this seems very plausible. Forecast soundings show
enough lack of instability to keep thunder out of the
forecast... But a deep enough convective shower may be able to
mix down 40-50kt winds to the surface as such wind speeds may be
lurking a mere 2000-2500ft up. Cold advection Sunday drops
850mb temps from 8c to 2c from 12z to 00z. NW flow continues
Sunday night but warm advection kicks in as low level thermal
ridge builds in from the west. This advection will occur above
the surface-based boundary layer however and Sunday night lows
will be in the low to mid 30s and a freeze warning may be needed
for northwestern zones.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... A split upper pattern will exist next week
across north america. A series of shortwaves moving across
southeastern canada in the northern stream will have relatively
little impact on the carolinas, however a pair of shortwaves in the
southern stream will have impacts on our sensible weather Tuesday
and Thursday night into Friday.

Canadian high pressure at the surface Monday will move eastward and
off the coast late Monday night. Model support for this idea is
quite high. Veering low-level winds and a warm advection pattern
developing Tuesday and Tuesday night should support the development
of a coastal trough as a weak shortwave approaches from the
southwest. There are significant model differences in the track the
shortwave takes (ecmwf from south ga to CAPE fear; GFS from central
ga to near norfolk) which then determine how well-developed the
surface system can become. A compromise solution should advect
enough shallow atlantic moisture back onshore for a 20-30 percent
chance of showers Tuesday night, clearing out by Wednesday morning
as the shortwave moves offshore. Cold air will sneak south as
another canadian high moves across the ohio valley. This should keep
highs on thanksgiving day only in the upper 50s to around 60, a good
6-8 degrees below normal.

Attention then turns to a much stronger shortwave diving into the
western and central gulf of mexico Wednesday night and Thursday.

Just like yesterday there are still model differences here, with the
ecmwf slower than the GFS with the eastward movement of the trough
across the gulf of mexico Thursday and Friday. A compromise solution
of the operational gfs, ecmwf, and their ensembles brings rain
chances into the area Thursday night through Friday night, but given
all the uncertainty (and to better blend with surrounding nws
offices) i'm capping pops no higher than 30 percent for now.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 23z... High pressure remains in control across the region
but will give way to an advancing cold front reaching the region
towards the end of the period. Atmosphere has decoupled with
winds becoming mainly clam across the terminals and staying
that way for much of the night... Maybe a 203kt winds across the
myrtles. Some light fog is possible at all terminals after 08z,
with moderately favorable moisture profiles. On Saturday,
clouds will increase in advance of a cold front. Winds will
shift to the south as high pressure moves offshore and will
increase to around 13kts.

Extended outlook...VFR with a chance of showers and possible
MVFR shra Saturday night into Sunday.

Near term through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Winds will diminish further as high
pressure shifts closer overhead through tonight. This will also
allow for a veering of winds from NE to E by midnight, shifting
further around to the SE and S through Sat morning as the
center of the high shifts off the coast of hatteras. Overall,
winds will drop off into tonight to under 10 kts before picking
up again through Saturday.

Gradient will tighten through Saturday aftn between high
pressure to the east and a cold front approaching the carolinas
from the nw. Expect winds increasing up to 15 kts by end of
period with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas will remain less than 3 ft
through Sat morning, but increasing southerly winds Sat aftn,
will push seas up to 3 to 4 ft by Sat eve.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Powerful cold front approaching Saturday
night. A small craft advisory will be issued next forecast cycle
or thereabouts. Both the pre-frontal and post-frontal flow
regimes will support advisory-worthy wind and seas. The actual
fropa and wind shift will come right around daybreak Sunday. At
this time it seems that the ssts being much cooler than the
airmass will preclude pre-frontal gale conditions and later in
the period as the airmass cools the wind fields will weaken
sufficiently to do the same.

Long term Monday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... High pressure will move across the carolinas
Monday, then offshore late Monday night. By Tuesday return flow
behind the departing high will buckle as a coastal trough develops
along the southeast coast. Winds should turn easterly on Tuesday,
then perhaps southeasterly for a time Tuesday night as the trough
makes its closest approach to shore, but by Wednesday morning the
feature should retreat back offshore as high pressure advances
across the ohio valley and shifts our winds to a more northerly

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.


near term... Rgz
short term... mbb
long term... Tra
aviation... Mac

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 53 mi29 min SSE 1 G 1.9 44°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Florence - Florence Regional Airport, SC4 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair48°F39°F74%1021.1 hPa
Marion County Airport, SC22 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair43°F37°F81%1021.7 hPa
Darlington, Darlington County Jetport Airport, SC23 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair43°F39°F86%1022 hPa

Wind History from FLO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW4NW5NW4CalmNW5N5N6N7N6NE5NE7NE4NE7E11E8E8643N4CalmE3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W54NW6NW5W8W55W7W4W4W3
2 days agoN5N7NE6NE6N7NE7N7N8N9NE6N6N7N8NE10NE10NE8E6NE73NE4NW6N4NW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Rhems, Black Mingo Creek, Black River, South Carolina
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Fri -- 12:33 AM EST     2.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:50 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:05 PM EST     2.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:07 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:22 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Fri -- 01:41 AM EST     1.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:04 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:16 PM EST     1.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:05 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:38 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.