Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Casa Conejo, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 4:52PM Friday November 16, 2018 1:15 AM PST (09:15 UTC) Moonrise 2:29PMMoonset 12:55AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 808 Pm Pst Thu Nov 15 2018
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft.
PZZ600 808 Pm Pst Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 7 pm pst, a 1027 mb high was centered in idaho, with a ridge extending to a 1027 mb high 300 nm W of seattle. A weak trough of low pressure was along the ca coast. This pattern is expected to change little through Fri.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Casa Conejo, CA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 34.15, -119     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus66 klox 160559
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
959 pm pst Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis 15 814 pm.

Weak offshore flow will keep a dry weather pattern in place
through Friday. Onshore flow will establish over the weekend with
a return of night and morning low clouds and fog for the coast
and valleys into early next week. Temperatures closer to seasonal
norms can be expected across the region during the period.

Short term (thu-sun) 15 908 pm.

Ridging aloft continues to cling to the area this evening while
slowly breaking down. A weak disturbance off the central
california coast will break the ridge down on Friday. Offshore
flow remains in place across the area this evening but will be
replaced with onshore flow on Friday. Some cooling will develop on
Friday, but the daytime hours should get a warm start. A few
tweaks will be made to warm temperatures slightly for Friday, but
temperatures will still be cooler than today.

A few patches of dense fog could develop tonight and into Friday
morning across the adjacent coastal waters. These patches could
slip into the coastal areas around daybreak Friday. Nbm solutions
are backing off the possibility of dense fog for late tonight and
into Friday. Local 2-km and 3-km WRF solutions suggest some
patches over the coastal waters tonight and into Friday morning.

Local WRF solutions suggest a better chance of dense fog on
Friday night into Saturday as onshore flow establishes and a
shallow marine inversion develops. If anyone is planning on
traveling into or out of southern or central california between
Friday night and Saturday morning, monitor the latest forecasts
for updates. If flying via local airports, check with respective
airlines for possible delays.

***from previous discussion***
pretty quiet next few days on tap as gradients weaken and
eventually turn lightly onshore Friday. The NAM has been
consistent showing an increase in marine layer stratus from the
south tonight as a weak eddy circulation develops. Mainly just
southern la county tonight with possibly some dense fog as the
inversion is very low. Stratus will spread much farther north by
Saturday as southerly flow pushes it up the coast and around pt
conception. All this will bring a cooling trend to the area,
especially coast and valleys with highs dropping back down into
the 60s and 70s. By Sunday gradients will start flipping back
around to offshore as a trough passes through the northern rockies
and surface pressures rise over the great basin. This should help
warm things up a few degrees for coast valleys but still topping
out in the mid 70s which is pretty close to normal for this time
of year.

Long term (mon-thu) 15 1242 pm.

Next week's forecast still quite a bit uncertain, particularly mid
week on. Monday and Tuesday still quite confident in dry
conditions and a slight return of offshore flow, though quite a
bit weaker than we've seen recently. Gradients are at most half of
what they were with this last event and little if any upper
support so no real concern yet for gusty winds or critical fire
weather conditions. But should be enough to warm temps a few more
degrees Monday then leveling off Tuesday as onshore trends return.

Forecast gets messier after Tuesday as the medium range models
continue to have significant differences.

The ECMWF still has some light precip coming in Wed with a weak
trough while the GFS has a decent ridge over the west coast at
that time. Since none of the GEFS members show anything close to
this solution am discounting the ECMWF in favor of the dry GFS for
Wednesday. After that both models keep it dry until Thursday night
and Friday when the next trough arrives. Though here again there
are significant enough differences to have pretty low confidence
in timing and strength. Odds favor at least a little rain during
that time frame but still too early to get specific.

Aviation 16 0559z.

At 0535z, there was a surface based inversion at klax. The top of
the inversion was around 1200 feet with a temperature of 23c.

ExpectVFR conds through the period with varying amounts of high
clouds above 20000 feet. There is a 10% chance of vlifr to lifr
cigs and vsbys between 11z and 16z at coastal terminals south of
point conception.

Klax... High confidence in the 06z TAF withVFR conds thru the pd.

There is a 10% percent chance of vlifr to lifr conditions between
11z and 15z. Any east winds will likely remain less than 7 knots.

Kbur... High confidence in the 06z tad withVFR conds thru the pd.

Marine 15 808 pm.

High confidence in winds staying below small craft advisory (sca)
through at least the weekend. Dense fog with very low visibility
is possible late tonight and Friday, especially south of point
conception including the san pedro channel.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Hall mw
aviation... Db
marine... Kittell
synopsis... Sirard
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 23 mi24 min 63°F3 ft
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 28 mi15 min 66°F3 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 28 mi27 min NE 8 G 9.9 62°F 65°F1016.1 hPa
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 28 mi25 min W 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 66°F3 ft1015.4 hPa61°F
46262 31 mi45 min 67°F3 ft
46251 40 mi15 min 65°F4 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 41 mi39 min N 4.1 G 4.1 55°F 1015.9 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 46 mi25 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 64°F 65°F3 ft1015.9 hPa64°F
PXAC1 47 mi39 min W 1.9 G 1.9
BAXC1 48 mi33 min SE 1 G 1
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 49 mi33 min 66°F1016.2 hPa
PFDC1 49 mi27 min Calm G 0

Wind History for Santa Monica, CA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last
24hr
NE8
NE3
N5
N4
E4
NE2
NE5
NE4
SE4
SW2
NW4
W4
W6
W5
W7
W4
SW4
E2
NE4
NE6
G9
SE2
NE4
E2
G7
NE5
1 day
ago
N5
NE7
N7
N12
G17
N10
G15
N1
G4
NE7
NE5
NE4
N1
G4
SW4
SW6
NW3
W5
W6
W7
NW6
W7
NW5
NE1
NE4
G7
NE7
E4
NE8
2 days
ago
N6
NE7
N11
NW4
SE4
SE7
SW3
W4
W5
W7
W5
W4
NW5
G8
N11
G15
N12
N11
SE6
NE8
NE6
NE3

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA6 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair51°F34°F52%1016.4 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA7 mi78 minN 510.00 miFair54°F37°F53%1016.1 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA11 mi24 minSW 310.00 miFair55°F33°F44%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from CMA (wind in knots)
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last 24hrNW3CalmNW3CalmNW3NE9NE6E8E10E8SW8W9W9SW6SW5S3S4NE3NE8NE6CalmE3NW3Calm
1 day agoE12E11E11E12E19E14NE13E14NE19
G25
E21
G28
NE23
G28
E13
G22
E17
G23
E19
G24
E13NW7NW3S4E3NE6CalmE5E5NW3
2 days agoNE8NE12E16
G23
E12
G23
E13
G24
NE17
G27
E16
G25
NE19
G32
NE27
G36
NE22
G30
E18E17E17NE16E13
G20
NE9NE10
G16
NE7E19E11NE4NE10E17
G23
NE15

Tide / Current Tables for Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier), California
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier)
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:28 AM PST     4.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:19 AM PST     2.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:29 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:16 PM PST     3.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:06 PM PST     0.90 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.31.92.63.33.84.14.13.93.53.12.72.62.62.93.23.53.73.73.42.82.21.61.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:35 AM PST     4.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:30 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:21 AM PST     2.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:29 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:23 PM PST     3.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:52 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:08 PM PST     0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.31.92.63.33.94.24.243.63.22.92.72.72.93.33.63.83.83.52.92.31.61.20.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (4,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.