Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 5:30 PM   Moonset 4:01 AM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 254 Am Pdt Mon May 20 2024
Today - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 7 seconds. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 9 seconds. Mon night - W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming se 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds. Tue - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds. Tue night - NW winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds. Wed - NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft. Thu - NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft.

PZZ600 254 Am Pdt Mon May 20 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 09z, or 2 am pdt, a 1034 mb surface high was centered 1200 nm northwest of los angeles while a 1002 mb thermal low was centered over southern nevada.

FXUS66 KLOX 200619 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1119 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
19/816 PM.

Low clouds will continue to be a staple of the forecast for coast and valleys through Monday, and struggling to clear each afternoon. Breezy onshore winds will occur across the interior valleys and adjacent foothill areas each afternoon and evening.
More sunshine with slight warming is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as onshore flow weakens. Then cooler with increasing marine layer clouds again the latter half of next week.

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...19/812 PM.

A persistent long wave trough along the West Coast coupled with strong onshore flow will continue to maintain a deep marine layer with cooler than normal temperatures through Monday for coast and coastal valleys. Current satellite imagery showing rather chaotic cloud pattern. With upper level trough passing to the north tonight, there will be lowering heights across the region. This combined with the strong onshore flow is expected to bring further deepening of the marine layer. Current ACARS data is showing a marine layer depth around 3200 feet across the LA Basin, and could reach 4000 feet by Monday morning. As a result, expecting to see areas of drizzle by Monday morning. In evening update, have introduced a 10-20 percent chance of measurable light rain, with highest chances across LA county and the Central Coast.
The deepening mariner layer combined with strong onshore flow pattern is generating onshore wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph across interior areas today, with isolated gusts as high as 50 mph possible in the Antelope Valley foothills. The wind advisory in effect for the Antelope Valley and western foothills will expire at 9 pm as winds will begin to gradually diminish overnight. Conditions are favorable for a slight uptick in onshore winds across the Antelope Valley and adjacent western foothills is expected on Monday afternoon/evening, and will likely require another wind advisory.

*** From previous discussion ***

Clearing was somewhat more complete across LA County today than the last few days but similar or slower elsewhere. Tonight and Monday morning is expected to be similar to the last several nights and mornings. However, after that models continue to indicate the trough starting to shift east Monday with some northerly flow aloft developing along with the beginnings of a downward trend in onshore flow. This should promote earlier clearing of the marine layer Monday afternoon, though clouds may continue along the coast much of the afternoon. Temperatures may warm a degree or two Monday across the valleys with the earlier clearing.

Gradients continue to weaken Tue and Wed with slow rising of heights and thicknesses. The much weaker onshore flow and earlier marine layer clearing will help warm up the valleys several degrees from recent days with highs in the mid to high 70s and around a 40% chance of low 80s in the warmest locations. Warmer at the coast as well with some lower 70s likely away from the beaches. There will even be a light northeast breeze across the inland valleys and mountains Tuesday morning into early afternoon, though well below advisory levels.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...19/203 PM.

After a two day reprieve Tue/Wed, troughing and strong onshore flow returns later in the week through next weekend. The marine layer is likely to deepen to at least 3000 feet again by Saturday, if not sooner, with slow or minimal clearing for coast/valleys and possibly some morning drizzle. High temperatures will fall back to the mid to 60s across most coast/valleys. Clear skies expected for mountains and desert areas but cooler there as well with gusty onshore winds at times.

AVIATION
20/0619Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1700 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5000 feet with a temperature of 17 C.

Good confidence in desert TAFs.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. Low cloud arrival timing may be off by +/- two hours tonight. There is a 20 percent chc of no clearing at coastal site in the afternoon. If clear does develop it may differ from fcst by +/- 90 minutes.
There is a 30 percent chc at any cstl site of MVFR cigs returning by 03Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no drizzle. There is a 20 percent chc of BKN025 conds persisting through the afternoon, otherwise SCT conds could arrive anytime 20Z-22Z. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN015 conds develop at 21/03Z. There is a 30 percent chc of a 6 knot east wind component 11Z-15Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no drizzle. SCT conds could arrive anytime 18Z-20Z.

MARINE
19/819 PM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) seas and/or northwest winds forming tonight over the offshore waters from the Central Coast to near the Channel Islands with moderate confidence of extending to San Nicolas Island. There is a 30 percent chance of SCA for the western Santa Barbara Channel each evening. These conditions will continue through Monday and likely beyond. Seas will be building everywhere as a result, with short period dominant seas over most nearshore waters by Sunday Night or Monday. SCA conditions are unlikely elsewhere. Southeast winds will form each morning over the nearshore waters from Santa Barbara to Orange County starting Monday or Tuesday. These winds may enhance to near 15 knots through passages and channels.

A long period south to southwest swell will peak Sunday and Monday with heights of 2 to 4 feet. This will create larger than usual breaking waves nearshore as well as some stronger currents near most harbor entrances.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday evening for zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier)
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Mon -- 02:43 AM PDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:01 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:38 AM PDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:57 PM PDT     1.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:29 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:55 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:09 PM PDT     5.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier), California, Tide feet

Port Hueneme
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Mon -- 02:45 AM PDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:02 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:45 AM PDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:59 PM PDT     1.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:30 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:55 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:16 PM PDT     5.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Hueneme, California, Tide feet

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