Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Channel Islands Beach, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:34PM Wednesday August 23, 2017 9:43 PM PDT (04:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:21AMMoonset 9:03PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 828 Pm Pdt Wed Aug 23 2017
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt through late in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 828 Pm Pdt Wed Aug 23 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 8 pm pdt...high pressure was over the eastern pacific and a 1006 mb low was near las vegas. Gusty nw winds will affect the outer waters through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Channel Islands Beach, CA
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location: 34.15, -119.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 240334
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
834 pm pdt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
Mostly clear skies into next week, except for an overnight
coastal marine layer. The temperatures will be around normal into
Thursday. Then the temperatures will soar to well above normal
from Saturday into next week as a high moves in.

Short term (wed-sat)
weak upper level low pressure system will move over the
forecast area tonight. This system has fired off some
convective thunderstorms this evening to our east
across the san bernardino county deserts. For our
area, just some cumulus buildups over the local
mountains along with the return of marine layer clouds
across coastal areas this evening. The marine layer
depth will remain around 2000 feet tonight, so looking for
marine layer clouds to fill in across most of the valleys
overnight into Thursday morning. Will also see some locally gusty
northwest winds tonight across the western portions of the santa
ynez mountains and i-5 corridor.

Slight warming expected across interior sections on
Thursday then bigger increase by Friday as heights and boundary
layer temperatures increase. Expecting to see most valley areas
climb well into the 90s on Friday, with the antelope valley
expected to see a return of 100 degree readings. By Friday
morning, also expecting to see marine layer clouds mostly confined
to the coastal plain. As upper level ridge strengthens over the
area on Saturday, looking for the beginning of a long duration
heat wave to begin. On Saturday, expecting 100 degree readings to
spread to some of the warmest valley and lower mountain locations.

Special weather statement issued to highlight potential for
significant heat impacts and elevated fire danger this weekend
into the middle of next week, and possibly longer.

Long term (sun-wed)
a significant warming trend is becoming more likely for Sunday
through Wednesday. Model solutions are impressive warming 950 mb
temperatures up to 35-40 degrees celsius across the area for an
extended period beneath a 594 dm heights. Forecast temperatures
are on the cool side of local temperatures studies for the region,
but if model parameters verify as progged currently, valleys,
foothill, and desert afternoon high temperatures warming into the
100-110 degree range could come into play. An excessive heat watch
may be needed over the coming days, if this pattern continues to
remain consistent.

While the forecast maintains a dry stance for early next week, the
ridge position would be consistent with the possibility of a
window opening for monsoonal flow to enter at some point. Have
added in some clouds to the ventura and los angeles county
mountains and have raised probabilities of precipitation but not
so high as a slight chance so far. Focusing on the heat wave for
now.

Aviation 23 2345z...

at 2330z, the marine inversion at klax was based at 1700 feet.

The top of the inversion was 3600 feet with a temperature of 23
degrees celsius.

High confidence in return of stratus fog to coastal and valley
sites, but only moderate confidence in timing (+ - 2 hours of
current arrival forecasts). Based on satellite trends, have
moved up timing of CIGS into klax, ksmo, klgb, kbur, and kvny.

Klax... Have moved up arrival time of MVFR cig to 00z based on
satellite trends. Expecting mostly MVFR CIGS to continue through
Thursday morning, but a 20 percent chance of ifr CIGS later
tonight.

Kbur... Have moved up arrival time of ifr cig to 09z based on
satellite trends. There is a 20 percent chance of MVFR cigs.

Marine 23 800 pm...

for the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Northwest winds over the outer waters have increased
more quickly than previously thought... With SCA gusts over the
southern zones and expected to increase by midnight over pzz-670.

The gusty winds are likely to persist through Saturday. On
Sunday, winds should diminish below SCA levels.

For the inner waters, high confidence in current forecast. For
the waters north of point sal, winds and seas will remain below
sca levels through tonight. On Thursday and Friday, northwest
winds will increase with SCA level winds likely each afternoon and
evening. For Saturday and Sunday, winds are expected to drop
below SCA levels. For the waters south of point conception, winds
and seas will remain below SCA levels through Sunday.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Friday for
zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
a heatwave will likely develop this weekend and extent through the
middle of next week.

Public... Gomberg jld
aviation... Gomberg
marine... Mw smith
synopsis... Stu
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 9 mi43 min 66°F3 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 29 mi67 min E 4.1 G 5.1 63°F 1012.4 hPa
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 30 mi33 min WSW 9.7 G 14 70°F1012.7 hPa
46251 31 mi52 min 67°F4 ft
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 32 mi33 min WSW 14 G 18 63°F 63°F1012.7 hPa61°F
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 39 mi43 min 68°F3 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 41 mi43 min SW 8 G 8.9 65°F 72°F1013.5 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA5 mi52 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast63°F60°F90%1012.7 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA8 mi47 minNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F59°F81%1013.3 hPa
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA10 mi48 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast66°F60°F81%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from OXR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7CalmW3CalmCalmCalmW4W4W5W6W5NW5NW4W7W9W10W11W12W12W10W12W9W9NW6
1 day agoW7NW7NW5NW4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNW3NW4W7W9W12W13W12W15W17W16W16W13W10
2 days agoCalmSE3S5SE3CalmNE5NE5NE6N5NE4NE73N4S3SW6SW8W11W11W9SW9W7W11W11W9

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:51 AM PDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:21 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:08 PM PDT     5.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:05 PM PDT     1.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:37 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.54.83.72.41.20.40.20.61.52.73.84.75.14.94.23.32.31.61.31.62.23.14.14.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:54 AM PDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:21 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:07 PM PDT     5.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:08 PM PDT     1.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:37 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.54.83.72.41.20.40.20.61.52.73.84.75.14.94.23.32.41.71.31.52.23.14.14.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.