Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Channel Islands Beach, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 4:49PM Thursday December 13, 2018 1:17 PM PST (21:17 UTC) Moonrise 12:30PMMoonset 11:41PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 902 Am Pst Thu Dec 13 2018
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 13 seconds.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 16 seconds.
Fri..E winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming se 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 15 seconds.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 16 seconds.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 16 seconds, building to 4 to 6 ft at 15 seconds in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 16 seconds.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 9 to 12 ft. Rain likely.
PZZ600 902 Am Pst Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z...or 8 am pst, a 1040 mb surface high was over eastern idaho extending a ridge to a 1026 mb high 300 nm W of point conception. Hazardous seas are possible today through Saturday night across the outer and northern coastal waters. Potential for a larger swell to affect coastal waters by large swell by Sunday night into Monday for all coastal waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Channel Islands Beach, CA
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location: 34.15, -119.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 131821
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1021 am pst Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis 13 811 am.

High pressure will bring breezy offshore winds and above normal
temperatures to the area today. A weak frontal system is expected
to bring mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures on Friday.

A second frontal system may bring a chance of rain Sunday night
into Monday.

Short term (tdy-sat) 13 949 am.

Offshore gradients slightly weaker than the NAM had predicted
yesterday and absent any upper support winds this morning are well
below advisory levels. Will probably see an increase in winds
later this morning but mostly in the 15-25 mph range. Still
expecting a generous warm up today as there's good low level
subsidence in place and a strong upper ridge building over the
west coast. The lax profiler is showing 24 hour temperature
increases ranging from 5-8 degrees below 1500' so the forecast
temps today look on track.

***from previous discussion***
on Friday the ridge weakens and the offshore grads relax. Clouds
will increase through the day as mid and high level clouds stream
out in front of an east pac trof. The central coast will see the
most clouds. There will be 3 to 6 degrees of cooling across the
csts vlys and 1 or 2 degrees of cooling across the interior. These
max temps will still be a few degrees above normal.

The tail end of a weakening cold front will move through Friday
night. Last nights mdls were all dry but then came in wetter for
the 12z through 00z runs. The 06z runs have now switched back to
dry. Way too much variability to pull the pops again and will
continue with the earlier thinking with a slight chc of rain for
coastal slo county. Fast moving zonal flow will quickly replace
the trof on Saturday. Skies will clear out and there will be a few
degrees of warming.

Long term (sun-wed) 13 323 am.

On Sunday the flow will turn to the southwest and hgts will start
to fall as a trof approaches the state from the west. Clouds will
increase as well as mid and high level clouds ahead of the system
begin to move into the area. MAX temps will fall 2 to 4 degree
across the area.

The trof and the front draw closer Sunday night and skies will
turn mostly cloudy everywhere. Both the GFS and the ec agree that
the only chc of rain before midnight will be across the NW corner
of slo county. As the front draws nearer rain will become likely
across the central coast. The clouds, rain, 560 dm hgts and a very
short day will keep most of the temps across the csts and vlys
near 60.

The front will be strong enough to bring rain to the almost all of
the 4 county forecast area during the day Monday before turning to
showers. The GFS continues to be the most bullish mdl but the ec
is not as far behind as it used to be. Right now this looks likes
a quarter inch to half inch sort of systems that will not produce
dangerous rainfall rates.

Monday night and early Tuesday will see a quick transition to
clear skies and offshore flow as a ridge builds into the area. Max
temps will see a huge 5 to 10 degree rebound Tuesday. The ridge
and the offshore flow continues to build on Wednesday and max
temps will see another 4 to 8 degree bump up which will put them
well above normal.

Aviation 13 1820z.

At 1724z, at klax, the marine layer depth was 500 feet. The top
of the inversion was at 900 feet with a temperature near 19
degrees celsius.

High confidence with 18z tafs.VFR conds are expected over the
next 24-hour period.

Klax... High confidence with 18z taf. ExpectVFR conditions
throughout the 30-hour period.

Kbur... High confidence in 18z taf.VFR conditions are expected
throughout the period.

Marine 13 915 am.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. A moderately large
northwest swell will gradually build into the coastal waters
today and persist through Saturday night. This swell will
diminish some on Sunday, with hazardous seas developing across
outer and northern coastal waters today through Saturday night.

Between Sunday night and Tuesday, a very large swell is expected
to build into the coastal waters and affect west to northwest
facing harbors, including morro bay. Ventura harbor could also be
affected on Monday through at least Tuesday as some of the energy
from the swell filters into the socal bight.

Beaches 13 952 am.

An extended period of high surf continues to be likely at central
coast beaches through Monday. There is a 50 percent chance of
very large and potentially damaging surf developing over the
upcoming weekend and into early next week. The latest swell models
build a west-northwest swell to between 18-22 feet off the
central california coast with periods between 19 and 20 seconds.

Swell energy could possibly push into southern california bight
between Sunday and Monday.

If swells develop inline with model guidance, surf of 15-20 feet
with sets up to 25 feet will be possible at west and northwest
facing beaches along the central coast between Sunday night and
Tuesday. South of point conception, west facing shores could
potentially see surf between 8-12 feet.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until 8 pm pst Saturday for
zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 9 am
pst Friday for zones 645-670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
Very high surf and dangerous rip currents are expected Monday and
Tuesday.

Public... Mw rorke
aviation... Sweet
marine... Sweet
beaches... Sweet
synopsis... Stewart
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 9 mi26 min 61°F5 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 29 mi41 min SW 8 G 8.9 61°F 1022.2 hPa
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 30 mi27 min Calm G 1.9 66°F 63°F3 ft1021.8 hPa58°F
46251 31 mi47 min 63°F4 ft
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 32 mi27 min W 1.9 G 3.9 63°F 62°F4 ft1022.5 hPa54°F
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 39 mi47 min 63°F3 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 41 mi29 min NE 8.9 G 11 77°F 62°F1021.8 hPa

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA5 mi26 minE 1510.00 miFair78°F19°F11%1021.4 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA8 mi20 minENE 1410.00 miFair78°F26°F15%1021.7 hPa
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA10 mi22 minE 1710.00 miFair78°F21°F12%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from OXR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW84S53CalmCalmCalmNE3E3E4NE7NE4NE6NE5NE3E5NE6E3E6NE5NE6E14
G24
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1 day agoW10W13W8W10W6CalmCalmE3NE4N4CalmNE3E6E7CalmE4NE5NE6NE4NE4NE5S4SW6S3
2 days agoW7W6CalmW8CalmS3NE3CalmW4NW4NE4E5NE4N5NE6NE5NE6N4CalmW4W6W7W9W15

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
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Thu -- 02:43 AM PST     3.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:53 AM PST     3.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:29 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:16 PM PST     4.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:05 PM PST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:40 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.33.63.63.53.43.33.23.33.53.844.14.13.83.32.721.40.90.80.91.31.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
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Thu -- 02:42 AM PST     3.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:56 AM PST     3.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:30 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:15 PM PST     4.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:08 PM PST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:40 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.33.63.63.53.43.33.23.33.53.844.14.13.83.32.721.410.80.91.31.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.