Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 6:10 AM   Moonset 8:58 PM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 823 Pm Pdt Tue May 7 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Wednesday - .
Tonight - Western portion, nw winds 10 to 20 kt becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, sw winds 10 to 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Wed - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 10 seconds. Wed night - W winds 15 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Thu - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Fri - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Fri night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 823 Pm Pdt Tue May 7 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a 1030 mb high was 700 nm nw of point conception and a 1014 mb low was over the southern california bight. Gale force winds will affect the outer waters through tonight, with winds gradually decreasing through Wed night. Weak ne winds are expected nearshore from point mugu to santa Monica Wed morning.

FXUS66 KLOX 080333 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 833 PM PDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
07/212 PM.

Gusty northwest winds will turn northeast Wednesday into Friday.
Generally clear skies will continue through the week except for some coastal low clouds and fog. Temperatures will remain around to just above normal through early next week, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s common.

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...07/745 PM.

***UPDATE***

Clear skies covered the forecast area early this evening. There were some low clouds noted along the SAN County coast and these should expand some and move up the coast tonight as an eddy develops. By late tonight, portions of the L.A. County coast should have some low clouds and fog. Otherwise, the clear skies will continue across the forecast area overnight.

Good northerly gradients this evening (e.g., -3.9 mb SBA-SMX at 02Z) were helping to bring gusty north winds to the southern SBA County coast and Santa Ynez Mtns. Gusty NW to N winds will also affect portions of the the SBA/VTU/L.A. County mtns into the Antelope Vly and Santa Clarita Vly overnight. Wind gusts to Advisory levels are expected, and a series of Wind Advisories (LAXNPWLOX) are in effect thru late tonight for all these areas.
Elsewhere over portions of SLO/SBA Counties and some of the foothills of VTU/L.A. Counties, breezy N to NE winds will prevail overnight towards daybreak.

The current zone forecasts are in good shape and do not anticipate any updates this evening.

***From Previous Discussion***

Cold air is starting to be deposited over the Great Basin, and will continue to over the next few days thanks to a large low pressure system over the Dakotas that will wobble to the west.
This will cause the winds to abruptly turn to northeasterly later tonight, and remain dominant during the night and morning hours through Friday (with onshore flow each late afternoon). These winds will peak in strength on Wednesday, then gradually decrease each day through Friday. During their peak, gusts should generally vary between 25 and 40 mph over the favored mountains and valleys of all counties, but especially over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Isolated gusts to 50 mph should be expected, but do not look widespread enough at this point to warrant any Wind Advisories. These winds also do not look potent enough to punch through the marine layer and down into the beaches. This means that there is still a window for some low clouds and fog each morning along the coast, which looks to expand in coverage each day as southeast winds strengthen. In fact, the pattern is right for a southerly surge on Thursday morning where any low clouds that form south of Point Conception moves north around the point and into the Central Coast.

Expect temperatures to climb tomorrow thanks to the offshore flow and clear skies. This is especially the case for the valleys, where our local climatological guidance suggests temperatures around 80 will be common in most valleys. Coastal areas will be at the mercy of the marine layer, but look to warm up as well since any clouds should clear by the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...07/208 PM.

Ensemble models have a range of outcomes over the weekend, concerning where the wobbling upper level low wants to go. The most likely outcome is for steady increase of onshore flow bringing more cool coastal clouds and gusty onshore winds over the interior. To what magnitude however is still on the table. The first half of next week, looks fairly benign, except for likely continued strengthening of the onshore flow over the mountains and interior, with further expansion of low clouds on the coastal side. There are some indications of some warming for the second half of next week with high pressure building in.

AVIATION
08/0031Z.

At 2300Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep, with an inversion top at 4300 ft and a temperature of 16 C.

Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF package. There is a 30% chance of no CIGs developing at KPRB, and a 30% of no CIGs for sites KLAX/KLGB/KSMO. There is also a 20% chance of CIGs forming at KBUR and KVNY, most likely in the IFR to low MVFR category if they do form. The timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. For KPMD and KWJF, there is a 40% chance of MVFR VSBYs in blowing dust through 04Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of cig changes may be off by +/- 2 hours, and there is a 20-30% chance of no cigs developing at all. An easterly wind component up to 8 knots is expected between 09Z to 16Z, with just a 10% chance of the east wind component reaching 10 kts during this time.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of IFR to low MVFR CIGs forming between 12Z to 16Z.

MARINE
07/831 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. GALE WARNINGS remain in effect through 3 AM Wednesday with gusts up to 35 knots. For Wednesday and Wednesday night, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas are expected.
Thursday through Sunday winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. SCA level winds are now likely to persist through late tonight. For Wednesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon/evening hours. For Thursday through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast, except for a chance of weak offshore winds along the coast from Point Mugu to Santa Monica.
There is a 10-20 percent chance of gusts up to 25 knots in this area. Otherwise across the southern Inner Waters, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Sunday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 88-349>353-376>378-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday evening for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Port Hueneme
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Wed -- 04:32 AM PDT     -1.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:09 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:52 AM PDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:49 PM PDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:57 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:02 PM PDT     6.44 feet High Tide
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Port Hueneme, California, Tide feet

Ventura
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Wed -- 04:35 AM PDT     -1.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:09 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:51 AM PDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:52 PM PDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:58 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:01 PM PDT     6.44 feet High Tide
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Ventura, California, Tide feet

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