Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Channel Islands Beach, CA
May 15, 2024 12:56 PM PDT (19:56 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:53 AM Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 12:49 PM Moonset 2:01 AM |
PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 733 Am Pdt Wed May 15 2024
Today - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight - Western portion, W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Eastern portion, W 10 to 15 kt in the evening, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog.
Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Thu night - Western portion, W winds 20 to 25 kt becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 9 seconds, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft dominant period 9 seconds after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Fri night - Western portion, W winds 20 to 25 kt becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 9 seconds, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft dominant period 9 seconds after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 733 Am Pdt Wed May 15 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 12z, or 5 am pdt, a 1030 mb surface high was centered 650 nm west of portland, oregon, while a 1002 mb thermal low was located along the california-arizona border. Light to moderate west to northwest flow will continue across the coastal waters.
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 12z, or 5 am pdt, a 1030 mb surface high was centered 650 nm west of portland, oregon, while a 1002 mb thermal low was located along the california-arizona border. Light to moderate west to northwest flow will continue across the coastal waters.
Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 151659 AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 959 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
14/834 PM.
Consistent weather expected for the next few days. Coastal areas will continue to see low clouds and below normal temperatures. In contrast, temperatures will be above normal for interior areas, with gusty winds at times, especially across the Antelope Valley.
A slight chance of showers will persist for the mountains each afternoon through Wednesday.
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...15/846 AM.
***UPDATE***
A weak upper level low pressure system is currently centered near San Diego, with weak east winds aloft over southwest California.
This flow has pulled in ample mid-level debris clouds from previous convection over Arizona and Nevada. Cannot discount some virga or a light shower from this. More importantly, this will provide a moisture source to interact with the unstable air forming this afternoon over the mountains. As a result, there is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.
If something were to form, there is a smaller but non-zero chance of a shower drifting off the mountains and into the valleys with the easterly steering flow.
Otherwise, low clouds and fog with patchy drizzle remains dominant over the coastal side of the region. Look for poor clearing once again over many coastal areas, although if convection forms over the mountains that does tend to lead to better clearing over the coast. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday.
***From Previous Discussion***
The May Grey pattern will continue through the short term. An upper low will slowly exit the area today and NE flow aloft will develop as it arcs around an upper west of Eureka.
Todays marine layer is about 2000 ft and notably its capping inversion is a little weaker than it was at this time ydy.
Gradients are still strongly onshore and the push to the east could reach 10 mb this afternoon. Low clouds cover all of the coasts and vlys as well as the Paso Robles area. Patchy drizzle is also likely from Malibu and points north. The NE flow aloft and the weaker inversion may join forces to help clearing this afternoon. The higher hgts and hopefully better clearing should lead to 2 to 3 degrees of warming save for the LA coast where the stronger onshore flow will result in 1 to 2 degrees of cooling. As has been the case for the past week the csts/vlys will end up about 6 degrees blo normal and the interior about 6 degrees above normal. The strong onshore push will bring gusty winds to the interior and low end advisory (45 mph) gusts to the westerly Antelope Vly foothills.
One new thing will affect today's weather. The NE flow that sets up this afternoon will advect in just enough instability and moisture to bring a slight chc of an afternoon and early evening TSTM over the LA/VTA mtns and the Antelope vly.
A ridge will move over the state on Thursday pushing hgts up. The clearing trend will be tricky as mdls show better clearing but the higher hgts will lead to a stronger marine inversion which with the strong onshore flow may well bring another afternoon of slow to no clearing for the coastal areas. The higher hgts will lead to a few degrees of warming.
No real changes on Friday. The weak ridge will continue as will the night through morning low clouds and gusty afternoon winds.
Max temps will not change much from Thursday's values.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...15/326 AM.
The upper ridge will push off to the east on Saturday and dry SW flow will move over the area. Ensembles favor better clearing and some warming, but the onshore flow remains strong and would not be surprised if clearing was not as fast and max temps come in a little cooler than fcst.
On Sunday and Monday a fairly high hgt upper low will approach the area from the SW. The lift from this system will reinforce the low cloud pattern and again low clouds will push deep into the vlys and then only clear to the coast. Patchy drizzle will be likely in the mornings. No real strong instability or moisture signals so likely the only effect the low will have on convection is just some mtn CU. Lowering hgts, deeper marine marine layer and stronger onshore flow will bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling each day. By Monday max temps across the csts/vlys will only be in the mid and upper 60s while the vlys will only top out in the lower to mid 70s. Max temps will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal across the board.
Ensembles are not in the best of agreement for Tuesday but most signal some sort of weak troffing. See no reason why the relentless marine layer cloud pattern should stop. Hgts are higher than on Monday and this should result in a little warming.
AVIATION
15/1659Z.
At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 5400 feet with a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius.
Overall for the 18Z TAF package, high confidence in desert TAFs and moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. For this afternoon, there is a 30% chance MVFR CIGs at KSBA will dissipate and a 30% chance that MVFR will remain at KOXR, KCMA, KSMO and KLAX. For tonight, high confidence in return of CIG/VSBY restrictions, but moderate confidence in timing and flight category.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance MVFR CIGs will not dissipate this afternoon. For tonight, high confidence in return of CIG/VSBY restrictions, but moderate confidence in timing of category changes (+/- 2 hours of current forecasts) and flight category (50% chance that conditions will remain at MVFR levels). No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Dissipation of MVFR CIGs could be as late as 20Z. For tonight, timing of return of CIG/VSBY restrictions could be +/- 2 hours of current 06Z forecast. There is a 40% chance that conditions will remain at MVFR levels tonight.
MARINE
15/735 AM.
Winds and seas will remain Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through at least Saturday, except for a 30-50 percent chance of SCA level winds in the vicinity of the Channel Islands and across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon and evening.
There is a 30-50 percent chance of SCA conditions early next week, highest beyond 10 NM offshore and in the vicinity of the Channel Islands.
BEACHES
15/318 AM.
An increasing south-southwesterly swell with a moderate long period will move into the coastal waters over the weekend and into next week. This will bring a high to likely (50-60 percent)
chance of strong rip current activity and elevated surf, especially south and southwest facing shores. There is a moderate (30 percent) chance of high surf during this period.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening for zone 381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 959 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
14/834 PM.
Consistent weather expected for the next few days. Coastal areas will continue to see low clouds and below normal temperatures. In contrast, temperatures will be above normal for interior areas, with gusty winds at times, especially across the Antelope Valley.
A slight chance of showers will persist for the mountains each afternoon through Wednesday.
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...15/846 AM.
***UPDATE***
A weak upper level low pressure system is currently centered near San Diego, with weak east winds aloft over southwest California.
This flow has pulled in ample mid-level debris clouds from previous convection over Arizona and Nevada. Cannot discount some virga or a light shower from this. More importantly, this will provide a moisture source to interact with the unstable air forming this afternoon over the mountains. As a result, there is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.
If something were to form, there is a smaller but non-zero chance of a shower drifting off the mountains and into the valleys with the easterly steering flow.
Otherwise, low clouds and fog with patchy drizzle remains dominant over the coastal side of the region. Look for poor clearing once again over many coastal areas, although if convection forms over the mountains that does tend to lead to better clearing over the coast. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday.
***From Previous Discussion***
The May Grey pattern will continue through the short term. An upper low will slowly exit the area today and NE flow aloft will develop as it arcs around an upper west of Eureka.
Todays marine layer is about 2000 ft and notably its capping inversion is a little weaker than it was at this time ydy.
Gradients are still strongly onshore and the push to the east could reach 10 mb this afternoon. Low clouds cover all of the coasts and vlys as well as the Paso Robles area. Patchy drizzle is also likely from Malibu and points north. The NE flow aloft and the weaker inversion may join forces to help clearing this afternoon. The higher hgts and hopefully better clearing should lead to 2 to 3 degrees of warming save for the LA coast where the stronger onshore flow will result in 1 to 2 degrees of cooling. As has been the case for the past week the csts/vlys will end up about 6 degrees blo normal and the interior about 6 degrees above normal. The strong onshore push will bring gusty winds to the interior and low end advisory (45 mph) gusts to the westerly Antelope Vly foothills.
One new thing will affect today's weather. The NE flow that sets up this afternoon will advect in just enough instability and moisture to bring a slight chc of an afternoon and early evening TSTM over the LA/VTA mtns and the Antelope vly.
A ridge will move over the state on Thursday pushing hgts up. The clearing trend will be tricky as mdls show better clearing but the higher hgts will lead to a stronger marine inversion which with the strong onshore flow may well bring another afternoon of slow to no clearing for the coastal areas. The higher hgts will lead to a few degrees of warming.
No real changes on Friday. The weak ridge will continue as will the night through morning low clouds and gusty afternoon winds.
Max temps will not change much from Thursday's values.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...15/326 AM.
The upper ridge will push off to the east on Saturday and dry SW flow will move over the area. Ensembles favor better clearing and some warming, but the onshore flow remains strong and would not be surprised if clearing was not as fast and max temps come in a little cooler than fcst.
On Sunday and Monday a fairly high hgt upper low will approach the area from the SW. The lift from this system will reinforce the low cloud pattern and again low clouds will push deep into the vlys and then only clear to the coast. Patchy drizzle will be likely in the mornings. No real strong instability or moisture signals so likely the only effect the low will have on convection is just some mtn CU. Lowering hgts, deeper marine marine layer and stronger onshore flow will bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling each day. By Monday max temps across the csts/vlys will only be in the mid and upper 60s while the vlys will only top out in the lower to mid 70s. Max temps will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal across the board.
Ensembles are not in the best of agreement for Tuesday but most signal some sort of weak troffing. See no reason why the relentless marine layer cloud pattern should stop. Hgts are higher than on Monday and this should result in a little warming.
AVIATION
15/1659Z.
At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 5400 feet with a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius.
Overall for the 18Z TAF package, high confidence in desert TAFs and moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. For this afternoon, there is a 30% chance MVFR CIGs at KSBA will dissipate and a 30% chance that MVFR will remain at KOXR, KCMA, KSMO and KLAX. For tonight, high confidence in return of CIG/VSBY restrictions, but moderate confidence in timing and flight category.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance MVFR CIGs will not dissipate this afternoon. For tonight, high confidence in return of CIG/VSBY restrictions, but moderate confidence in timing of category changes (+/- 2 hours of current forecasts) and flight category (50% chance that conditions will remain at MVFR levels). No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Dissipation of MVFR CIGs could be as late as 20Z. For tonight, timing of return of CIG/VSBY restrictions could be +/- 2 hours of current 06Z forecast. There is a 40% chance that conditions will remain at MVFR levels tonight.
MARINE
15/735 AM.
Winds and seas will remain Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through at least Saturday, except for a 30-50 percent chance of SCA level winds in the vicinity of the Channel Islands and across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon and evening.
There is a 30-50 percent chance of SCA conditions early next week, highest beyond 10 NM offshore and in the vicinity of the Channel Islands.
BEACHES
15/318 AM.
An increasing south-southwesterly swell with a moderate long period will move into the coastal waters over the weekend and into next week. This will bring a high to likely (50-60 percent)
chance of strong rip current activity and elevated surf, especially south and southwest facing shores. There is a moderate (30 percent) chance of high surf during this period.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening for zone 381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 | 29 mi | 80 min | SSW 7G | 56°F | 29.95 | |||
| 46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA | 30 mi | 46 min | W 5.8G | 57°F | 61°F | 29.96 | 55°F | |
| 46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA | 31 mi | 46 min | W 3.9G | 55°F | 56°F | 29.92 | 53°F | |
| 46251 | 31 mi | 60 min | 57°F | 60°F | 3 ft | |||
| 46268 | 37 mi | 56 min | 62°F | 1 ft | ||||
| 46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) | 38 mi | 60 min | 59°F | 2 ft | ||||
| ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier | 41 mi | 56 min | 60°F | 62°F | 29.94 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KOXR OXNARD,CA | 4 sm | 65 min | W 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 54°F | 77% | 29.94 | |
| KNTD POINT MUGU NAS (NAVAL BASE VENTURA CO),CA | 8 sm | 61 min | SW 06 | 9 sm | Overcast | 63°F | 55°F | 77% | 29.95 | |
| KCMA CAMARILLO,CA | 10 sm | 61 min | SW 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 64°F | 54°F | 68% | 29.93 |
Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:00 AM PDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:42 AM PDT 3.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:49 AM PDT First Quarter
Wed -- 05:54 AM PDT Sunrise
Wed -- 11:15 AM PDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:48 PM PDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:28 PM PDT 3.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:52 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:00 AM PDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:42 AM PDT 3.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:49 AM PDT First Quarter
Wed -- 05:54 AM PDT Sunrise
Wed -- 11:15 AM PDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:48 PM PDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:28 PM PDT 3.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:52 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Port Hueneme, California, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.1 |
| 1 am |
| 3.3 |
| 2 am |
| 3.6 |
| 3 am |
| 3.8 |
| 4 am |
| 3.9 |
| 5 am |
| 3.7 |
| 6 am |
| 3.2 |
| 7 am |
| 2.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.6 |
Ventura
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:01 AM PDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:41 AM PDT 3.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:49 AM PDT First Quarter
Wed -- 05:54 AM PDT Sunrise
Wed -- 11:18 AM PDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:48 PM PDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:27 PM PDT 3.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:52 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:01 AM PDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:41 AM PDT 3.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:49 AM PDT First Quarter
Wed -- 05:54 AM PDT Sunrise
Wed -- 11:18 AM PDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:48 PM PDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:27 PM PDT 3.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:52 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ventura, California, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.1 |
| 1 am |
| 3.3 |
| 2 am |
| 3.6 |
| 3 am |
| 3.8 |
| 4 am |
| 3.9 |
| 5 am |
| 3.7 |
| 6 am |
| 3.2 |
| 7 am |
| 2.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 3 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.6 |
Los Angeles, CA,
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