Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 11:56 PM   Moonset 8:25 AM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 951 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Overnight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds and se 2 ft at 7 seconds. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 9 seconds and se 2 ft at 7 seconds. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 7 seconds. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 6 seconds. Mon night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wed - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

AMZ200 951 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure will gradually shift southward through the weekend and anchor off the u.s. Southeast states coast for the upcoming week. A decaying weak cfp will occur Tue night, followed by a more pronounced cfp possible next weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 280212 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1012 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build in from the north through northeast tonight. A warming trend will develop into next week as the center of the high shifts and anchors off the southeast US coast. A weak cold front will push thru Tue night. A more powerful one with increasing chances for rain will approach the area late next week.

UPDATE
Mid and upper level clouds to dominate overnight into Sun, with occasional onshore movement of stratocu due to favorable low level winds. But overall, decreasing cloud trend will dominate the overnight period. Min temp fcst looks aok with various model MOS guidance a degree or 2 from 1 another, no tweaks applied. Have adjusted hrly temps based on latest trends and eventually meshed them with the ongoing overnight fcst. Onshore winds to veer slightly overnight thru Sun, possibly some temporary speed influences from the resultant wind, aka sea breeze, during Sun. Marine winds staying ESE-SE around 10 kt or less, veering to the SSE-S during Sun as the center of sfc high drops south to offshore from the Carolinas by late Sun aftn.
Healthy fetch continues to produce an Easterly 7 to 9 sec period swell that will veer slightly to the ESE-SE during Sun.

For Sunday April 28th, Moderate rip risk for all county beaches except Brunswick County due to ESE-SE 7 to 9 second period swell.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
500 mb ridge axis will remain oriented N-S across the Carolinas through Sunday. The resulting NW flow along the eastern seaboard will cause surface high pressure to drop from the New England states to off the SE NC coast by Sunday evening. The surface high is producing onshore flow along with enough low- level convergence to pop a few showers across SE NC and across the Pee Dee region this afternoon. However weak instability, shallow moisture and a capping inversion will keep convection low-topped. Ridging aloft will maintain benign weather through Sunday, with overnight lows mid/upper 50s and Sunday highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mostly quiet short term period with surface high pressure in the area. Mostly clear skies Sun night with some mid-level clouds passing overhead towards Mon AM, lows in the low to mid 50s. The ridge aloft shifts towards the coast through Mon AM as a shortwave trough approaches, the high dipping offshore. Some afternoon cu could develop Mon with highs in the low to mid 80s away from the coast due to the sea breeze. Clear skies with a breeze as the sea breeze looks to continue inland overnight, lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The approaching shortwave looks to be accompanied with a broad area of precip progressing east. Cloud cover should increase late in the day Tues as this approaches, but much of the area should still remain dry through the day. Highs in the mid 80s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Low confidence on rainfall amounts associated with the shortwave passing through Tues night but decided to add low precip chances due to the decent forcing with the feature. This feature will move offshore Wed AM with a shortwave ridge building behind the feature, more surface high pressure approaching. Diurnal isolated showers/storms remain possible Wed and Thurs afternoon but better chances will come Fri into Sat due to an approaching cold front and a possibly stalled surface feature. Highs will increase into the mid to upper 80s through the latter half of the week with some cooling possible towards the end of the period due to the cold front.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure centered offshore from the Mid-Atlantic States tonight, will drop to the offshore waters off the Carolinas during Sun. This will continue the onshore flow with some slow veering in the synoptic wind field. The gradient will remain relaxed with windspeeds overnight 6 kt or less and daytime Sun 5 to 10 kt, possible gusts at the coastal terminals if the resultant wind, aka sea breeze, is able to gain some momentum.
Cloud decks in the mid and upper levels thru the night into Sun daybreak. Likely will see a cu field develop during daytime Sun along with a continued upper level cloud deck. The various model MOS guidance keeps fog at bay across the terminals tonight and will continue to adhere to its output.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR expected through early next week outside of a low chance of morning fog or low cigs each morning. Isolated showers accompanying a CFP possible Tue night.

MARINE
Through Sunday: High pressure will drop southeastward from New England to off the Carolina coast through Sunday. Easterly winds will veer to the south by late Sunday. Speeds should remain generally 10-15 kt, although a sea breeze circulation will produce some 20 kt gusts within a few miles of shore. 3-4 ft seas will primarily be composed of a ESE swell around 7 sec.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions expected through the period with minimal rain chances expected over the waters, highest chances currently Tues night. S/SW winds 10-15 kts may swing around to the SE late Thursday due to a cold front. Seas 2-3 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Wilmington
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