Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Leland, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 6:05PM Saturday February 24, 2018 5:17 AM EST (10:17 UTC) Moonrise 12:35PMMoonset 1:57AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 321 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Today..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog this morning. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, then 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely with isolated tstms.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..E winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 321 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure offshore will maintain moderate S and sw winds, until a cold front crosses the coast Monday, bringing winds around to the N and ne both Monday and Tuesday. Patchy sea fog remains a possibility as well. The high will move offshore Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leland, NC
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location: 34.18, -77.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 240925
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
425 am est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
High pressure off the coast will bring unseasonable warmth
through this weekend. A cold front is expected to slowly push to
the area late Sunday before temporarily stalling across or just
south and east of the fa late Sun night thru Mon aftn. It's
during this time frame when light rain and embedded thunder will
be most widespread. Monday night will finally see the front
pushed well south and east of the region with impoving
conditions as high pressure builds across the region Tuesday
thru Wednesday with seasonable temps. Another warmup will occur
Thursday as the high moves off the carolina coasts. A strong
cold front will push across the area early Fri followed by
breezy to windy conditions.

Near term through tonight
As of 330 am Saturday... The mid level pattern which has been in
place for several days remains mostly intact although things
are beginning to change slowly. The main feature, strong ridging
will continue to get suppressed to the south as mid level
troughing, seemingly stuck in the mississippi valley for days
continues to nudge eastward. Overall, with the surface high
pressure remaining in control, expect another foggy start, then
a partly sunny and warm day. There is some indication of light
showers developing with the latest high resolution guidance
favoring coastal areas later today. This may actually be some
derivation of sea fog advecting onshore but do not want to
remove from the inherited forecast. Highs today will be similar
to Friday's numbers with cooler middle to upper 70s along the
coast and closer to and possibly exceeding 80 degrees inland.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 330 am Saturday... Just 1 more day of 80+ degree highs and
then summer is over, and back to reality with temps
transitioning back to near normal for late february.

Models indicate the break down of the upper ridging thats been
supplying the fa with summer-like conditions. Successive
mid-level S ws are progged to wear down and suppress the upper
ridge as they move and track to the northeast. This will also
allow a frontal boundary thats been plaguing the central u.S. To
finally push ese then temporarily stall across or just east of
the fa for Monday due to it's parallel alignment to the flow
aloft. Look for widely scattered showers well ahead of the sfc
cold front Sunday. With limited cape, 1st inclination was to
keep thunder at bay, but given our summer-like conditions, will
include isolated thunder. Pcpn will become more widespread
Sunday night as the sfc front moves closer and temporarily
stalls across or just south of the ilm cwa. Have indicated
likely pops for Monday. Once again, limited CAPE to exist with
the NAM being more generous, will include isolated thunder
within the stratiform light rain. The fa lies in the right rear
quadrant of the 300mb upper jet which will result in favorable
uvvs. Once again, limited CAPE to exist, with the NAM being
more generous, and as a result, will include isolated thunder
within the stratiform light rains. A positively tilted mid-
level upper trof will finally jump-start the sfc front and push
it off to well south and east of the fa during Monday night.

Pcpn will end Monday evening the latest, followed by some caa
with residual moisture in the form of clouds

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... A slow moving cold front is forecast
to come through on Monday. The surface boundary will be
accompanied by a dry wnw mid level flow. Normally this is not
conducive for significant rainfall and Monday appears to be no
different. Tuesday will be the one day that high pressure wedges
in from the north behind the front. By Wednesday the high moves
offshore and return flow gets underway. Models are not in
agreement regarding the pace at which this leads to cloudiness
and rain chance. Will show a gradual trend through Wednesday
into Wednesday night as usually with moisture advection slower
solutions tend to be better ones. A more substantial cold front
arrives late Thursday or Friday. Guidance varies considerably
with the pattern aloft casting uncertainty regarding rain
prospects with this stronger boundary.

Aviation 08z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 06z... Moisture laden flow continues across the entire
area this morning and a significant fog outbreak is once again
anticipated. I basically applied a start time for ifr conditions
similar to observations this morning which is around 0700 utc.

Similar trends applied to the daytime dissipation around 1400
utc.VFR conditions expected tomorrow afternoon into the
evening.

Extended outlook... Approaching cold front will bring increasing
chances for showers and MVFR Sunday and Monday.VFR Tuesday.

Showers possible Wednesday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 330 am Saturday... Steady state conditions across
the coastal waters this morning with south winds around ten
knots or so. Winds will continue from the south or slightly
southwest through the period courtesy of surface high pressure
across the western atlantic. Speeds may increase ever so
slightly later today and tonight. Significant seas will be 2-4
feet.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 330 am Saturday... Ahead of the cold front, looking at sw
winds increasing to 15 to occasionally 20 kt by midday and
continuing well into Sunday night before it's passage or it's
temporary stall. Significant seas will build to 3 to 5 ft most
locations and combining it with the wind field, scec conditions
will be met. Looking at increasing coverage of showers late
Sunday and Sunday night. After the passage of the cold front
early mon, pcpn will transition to stratiform light rains. For
mon thru Mon night, and after the cfp, winds will veer to the
w to nw, then N to NE Monday night. The CAA surge lags well
behind the front, and should affect the local waters Monday
night with 15 to 20 kt speeds. Significant seas may temporarily
drop back to 2 to 4 ft Monday but should see 3 to 5 ft again mon
night. The ese ground swell at 9+ second periods will affect the
fa thruout this period. Local wind driven waves will aid in
pushing overall seas to once again scec thresholds Mon night.

Long term Monday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Frontal passage on Monday will lead to a
shift from W to NW winds. This front will be weak and so not
expecting any surge of high pressure, cold air, or gusty winds.

High pressure behind the front does not drive very far south as
it progresses off the coast to our north heading into Tuesday.

This turns winds to NE and then E with no significant change in
wind speeds. The onshore flow direction however will allow for
slightly larger seas. No headlines are planned at this time.

Wind and waves may build at the end of the period or just beyond
with the approach of the next front, which will be much
stronger.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Shk
short term... Dch
long term... Iii
aviation... Shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 3 mi48 min 63°F 61°F1024.4 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi48 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1 61°F 57°F1024.9 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 13 mi190 min W 3.9 G 5.8 61°F 59°F1025.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 13 mi49 min 59°F3 ft
41108 32 mi48 min 61°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi70 min WSW 12 G 18 69°F 69°F1025 hPa
SSBN7 37 mi156 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 37 mi70 min WSW 1.9 G 3.9 61°F 61°F1024.5 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC7 mi25 minS 310.00 miOvercast64°F63°F96%1024.6 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC18 mi43 minN 07.00 miRain64°F63°F98%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalm4SE5E10SE8E8SE8--SE6SE6CalmS6S5S3S5S4SW4CalmSW3S5S3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW5SW7SW9W9
G16
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S10S9S10S9S5S5S4CalmS3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW9S8S12S10SW7S10S10S9S8S6S4S8S6S4S4S5S5S4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
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Sat -- 01:56 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:38 AM EST     4.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:07 AM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:22 PM EST     4.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:03 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:11 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.63.14.14.64.64.33.62.821.40.80.50.81.93.23.94.24.13.62.71.810.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:55 AM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:55 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:26 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:16 PM EST     2.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:03 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:19 PM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.23.843.73.12.21.30.50.10.20.51.21.92.62.92.82.41.70.80.1-0.2-0.20.31.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.