Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 1:30 AM   Moonset 11:45 AM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 937 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
Rest of today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - N winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Sat night - SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Sun - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 937 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure will build in from the west today, move overhead Thursday and offshore Friday. A series of weak fronts will move into the area for the weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 011337 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 937 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper level disturbance will continue to move through the Carolinas today, bringing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area. Forecast dries out and temperatures warm slightly Thursday and Friday. From there, a frontal boundary brings scattered showers and storms to the area throughout the weekend, with another drying trend due by the beginning of next week.

UPDATE
No major changes from the ongoing forecast with this update.
Adjusted temps to account for low clouds stunting warming across inland areas; these should mix out to scattered cumulus over the next hour or two. Am still expecting isolated to scattered sea breeze convection this afternoon with outflow boundaries and debris clouds providing cooling in some locations but not others.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Lingering convection currently crossing the forecast area is associated with a 5h shortwave poised to move offshore later this morning. Although the wave pushes offshore before midday, it is moving slow enough that afternoon convection will still be possible. Forecast soundings show post-wave subsidence increasing west of I-95 in the afternoon, but closer to the coast profiles remain supportive of deeper convection. Mid-level lapse rates are somewhat marginal, but temperatures above normal will result in sea breeze development. Diurnal instability and the sea breeze will be more than enough to generate scattered afternoon convection. The mid-level environment will gradually become less favorable just as surface based instability is increasing, hence the limited rain chances. Not expecting anything more than typical warm season showers and thunderstorms today given the storm environment.

Any convection hanging around into late afternoon will quickly come to an end as subsidence aloft increases and surface based CAPE drops to near nothing. Fog will be a concern tonight with boundary layer winds becoming light and variable to calm. Dense fog will be possible in any areas that end up seeing rain later today. Lows will run above climo.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Mostly quiet weather this period. Mid-level ridging pokes up Thursday before sinking back southward and eventually shunted offshore Friday. Ample subsidence over the area keeps a mostly dry forecast in play, with highs each day in the mid 80s inland, near 80 at the coast. Lows each night in the low-to-mid 60s.

Rain chances increase slightly from the west Friday night, with a shortwave aloft associated with a frontal system approaching the area. Even so, think this will manifest in mostly increased cloud cover as opposed to rain chances.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Progression of the surface front has slowed down a good bit, but with plenty of mid-level energy moving through aloft, it doesn't necessarily matter. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday, with the heaviest activity probably being more inland, closer to the stalled out front. The front may try to inch a bit closer to the forecast area Sunday, but still likely lingers across the Piedmont and SC Upstate, due to lack of steering flow aloft. Regardless, scattered showers and storms continue throughout the weekend.

Front eventually washes out by the beginning of next week, which does temper the rain chances a bit. Even so, isolated showers and storms could be possible Monday and Tuesday afternoon, due to more mesoscale factors in play.

Highs in the lower 80s Saturday and Sunday, due to clouds and rain. Temperatures rebound back to the mid 80s Monday and Tuesday with more sunshine. Lows each night in the mid 60s.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low stratus at inland terminals this morning will mix out around 14Z. VFR will dominant with potential for brief SHRA/TSRA at coastal terminals in the afternoon, associated with the sea breeze. Sea breeze will be weak and wind gusts will remain around 10kt. Widespread MVFR/IFR fog is likely to develop at all terminals tonight between 06Z and 09Z.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR except for MVFR/IFR visibility Thursday morning. IFR/MVFR ceiling and visibility possible Sunday.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Overall decrease in wind speeds today with weaker gradient in place over the waters. Lingering morning convection will lift northeast as shortwave aloft exits the region. Southerly flow will generally be under 10 kt away from the coast. Closer to the coast 10-12kt is likely with gusts around 15kt. Gusts will not be as strong as recent days. May see some afternoon storms move over the waters after developing along the sea breeze, but these would really only affect nearshore waters. Seas 2-3 ft this morning drop around 2 ft in the afternoon and overnight with the southerly wind wave remaining dominant over the southeast to east swell.

Thursday through Sunday...Winds are likely more variable earlier in the day Thursday, before developing a southeasterly onshore component by the afternoon. By Thursday night, winds are more consistently 5-10kts through Sunday, generally from the south or south-southeast. Seas at 1-2ft through Saturday, gradually building up to 2-3ft by Sunday. Two main swells are out of the east at 9-12 seconds, and southeast at 5-7 seconds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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