Tuesday, September18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Leland, NC

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Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:14PM Tuesday September 18, 2018 5:02 PM EDT (21:02 UTC) Moonrise 2:30PMMoonset 12:01AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 401 Pm Edt Tue Sep 18 2018
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly this evening.
Wed..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 kt or less, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 401 Pm Edt Tue Sep 18 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles..A weak surface front will drop southeastward and off the coast late tonight. Dry high pressure will build across the southeast united states Wednesday through Friday before shifting offshore Saturday. Moisture will increase over the area Sunday through Tuesday, accompanied by higher rain chances.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leland, NC
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location: 34.18, -77.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 182029
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
issued by national weather service charleston sc
429 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018

Synopsis
A weak surface front will drop southeastward and off the coast
late tonight. Dry high pressure will build across the southeast
united states Wednesday through Friday before shifting offshore
Saturday. Moisture will increase over the area Sunday through
Tuesday, accompanied by higher rain chances.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
This evening: radar imagery shows isolated
showers thunderstorms developing ahead of the approaching weak
surface trough front. Surface analysis shows the boundary
stretching from just east of raleigh, down through fayetteville
and into the midlands of south carolina. We continue to see an
environment with meager MLCAPE values in the 500-1000 j kg range
just ahead of the boundary, and 1000-1500 j kg closer to the
coast. Hi-res models continue to show the best development and
coverage along the north carolina coast this evening, and that
seems reasonable given how the instability is distributed. Dcape
values are rather average, around 600 j kg, so the convection
should remain rather benign. Made adjustments to rain chances
through the evening based on the latest hrrr and rap, but no
significant changes.

Tonight: the weak surface trough front will push off the coast
late this evening and the focus for showers and thunderstorms
will become more aligned with the adjacent coastal waters. Once
the boundary moves south of the area, the prevailing low level
flow will become more northwesterly and then northerly with
time. By the late night period, skies should clear out, with
perhaps only passing high clouds expected. There are no
significant fog concerns as drier air filters in from the north.

In fact, precipitable water values are expected to drop down
into the 1-1.25 inch range by sunrise Wednesday. Lows are
forecast to range from the upper 60s inland to the low 70s at
the beaches.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
A strong upper level ridge will envelop the eastern half of the
country Wednesday through Friday, allowing drier canadian high
pressure to spread southeast at the surface. A much needed
period of rain-free weather will be the result. Surface
dewpoints will drop into the mid-upper 60s for much of the
period and cloud cover will be minimal until Friday when the
surface high shifts east and low-level moisture increases.

Temperatures will remain relatively warm on Wednesday with highs
in the upper 80s to around 90. Thursday and Friday will be a
few degrees cooler due to weak cold air advection from building
high pressure over the mid-atlantic.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
The powerful upper level ridge is expected to shift east and
become centered over the western atlantic Saturday through at
least the middle of next week. The accompanying surface high
will also shift farther offshore, allowing a return flow to
advect increasing low-level moisture into the area. There is the
potential for a few weak shortwaves to rotate around the ridge
Sunday through Tuesday. The prevailing onshore flow will also
support daily sea breezes. Between the PVA associated with
occasional shortwaves and daytime sea breeze activity, we
anticipated isolated to scattered showers and tstms starting on
Sunday.

Aviation 21z Tuesday through Sunday
The main concern through the afternoon is the potential for
thunderstorms. Current thinking is that inland coverage will be
isolated, with scattered thunderstorms along the coast. Have
updated the forecast to include vcts only at kcre and kilm in
the 21-00z window. Still not confident in direct impacts. Then
overnight, the front will push southward and drier air will work
in from the north. Guidance is a bit mixed, showing some
potential for light fog, but with the drier air moving in it
seems reasonable to keep fog out of the forecast for now except
at klbt.

Extended outlook...VFR should prevail through Saturday night
due to dry high pressure building over the area. Increasing
atlantic moisture Sunday into early next week could result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by brief flight
restrictions.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

southwest winds will continue to peak in the 15-20 knot range
at times ahead of a weak surface trough front inland that is
approaching the coast. Late this evening, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the coastal waters once the
boundary shifts offshore. Then through the rest of the night,
winds will gradually turn more northwesterly and then northerly,
topping out around 10 knots. Current 2-4 ft seas will diminish
a bit overnight, becoming more like 2-3 ft.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night ...

fairly quiet marine conditions are anticipated Wednesday and
Wednesday night as high pressure builds over the waters.

Reinforcing high pressure building from the north Thursday and
Thursday night will produce a period of stronger NE to E winds
over the waters. Some gusts to 20 kt are possible, though we
currently do not anticipate small craft advisories.

Long term Friday through Saturday ...

a few 20 kt gusts may persist into Friday due to the enhanced
coastal gradient with high pressure to the north. Quiet
conditions will then occur Friday night through Sunday as the
surface high shifts farther offshore and a weak onshore flow
takes hold.

Tides coastal flooding
A coastal flood advisory is in effect through 8 pm for minor
flooding with the evening high tide.

Minor flooding will be possible around the times of high tide
through the end of the week due to elevated tides and an
increasing flow of inland freshwater through the CAPE fear
river.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108.

Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz107.

Marine... None.

Near term... Bsh
short term... Jrl
long term... Jrl
aviation... Bsh jrl
marine... Bsh jrl
tides coastal flooding... Bsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 3 mi33 min 87°F 77°F1010 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi33 min S 21 G 24 82°F 83°F1010.2 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 13 mi55 min N 16 G 21 80°F 81°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 13 mi33 min 81°F3 ft
41108 32 mi33 min 83°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi55 min SW 18 G 27 77°F 81°F1010.8 hPa
SSBN7 37 mi123 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 37 mi55 min SW 16 G 19 82°F 82°F1010 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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SE29
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E31
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SE27
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G36
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC7 mi70 minSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F73°F65%1010 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC18 mi98 minSSW 8 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F77°F81%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S9S7S8S6S8S9S8S7SW6S12S8SW12S7S11SW9SW12SW11SW12SW12
G17
SW12SW11SW9SW11
1 day agoSE11
G19
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G23
E9SE11SE11
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2 days ago----SE23
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SE9E18
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G27
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G26
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SE18
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.