Thursday, May24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Flowery Branch, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 8:39PM Thursday May 24, 2018 9:33 PM EDT (01:33 UTC) Moonrise 2:57PMMoonset 2:45AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flowery Branch, GA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 34.19, -83.92     debug

Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kffc 242329
area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
729 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion.

Prev discussion issued 326 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
short term tonight through Friday night ...

a stationary surface low continues to spin just west of macon at
this hour with very weak flow aloft. This is helping to produce
widespread showers and thunderstorms across central ga, especially
east- central ga through this afternoon. Depending on the low
track, this could mean continued heavy rain across this area
through the evening, slowly diminishing overnight. Some high res
models show the low slowly lifting north this evening which would
reduce the chance for widespread flooding across central ga. This
will then push the precipitation toward athens. However, based on
model spread, feel the surface low will be slow to progress which
will result in localized (possible widespread) flooding through
the overnight, with the area of concern being east-central ga
including macon.

Expect precipitation coverage to diminish late tonight early
tomorrow morning. Stratus and fog may be an issue in the morning
across central eastern ga. Precipitation will blossom yet again
tomorrow mid-morning early afternoon with the coverage being
dependent upon the surface low placement. Current thinking is that
we will see better coverage across or just south of the metro and
athens. We will see widespread thunderstorms across the entire area
though. Again, the precipitation may take a bit to diminish
overnight, leading to more flood concerns across east ga.

Over the next 36 hours, we expect some locations across central and
east ga to receive between 2 to 4 inches of rain with locally higher
amounts, possibly reaching up to 8 inches. With such saturated
soils, gusty winds with these storms could easily down trees.

long term Saturday through Thursday ...

main concerns in the long term period are the track of invest al90
(aka soon to be tropical storm alberto) and its rainfall footprint
through the entire period.

Nhc continuing to indicate high probability of TC development of
invest al90 to a tropical storm in the next few days, which confirms
trend of model guidance this week. 12z model guidance, including
gfs, ECMWF and ggem, continuing to slowly converge on track and
takes center to middle gulf coast somewhere between new orleans and
mobile. Even with well defined center, appears greatest impact,
particularly as it relates to north and central ga, will be very
heavy rain and flooding and not wind-related. That said, model
guidance seems to be conservative with amounts, taking the bulk
of it along and to the right of the track into southern al and ms.

Wpc QPF guidance seems to be on the right track, no pun intended
with broader swath of heavy rain that includes areas further east
including ga. Most concerning is models slowing center down after
landfall with GFS in particular lingering center nearby. Will
continue to monitor this closely.

For now have issued esf to account for heavy rain and hydrologic
threats. Very concerned that with pockets of very high antecedent
rainfall, will be vulnerable to a significant flash flood event.


see hydrologic outlook product issued this afternoon (esfffc).

Total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts up to 7
inches expected through Wednesday. Rainfall observed over the last
7 days have been 300 to 600 percent of normal over a fairly large
area, not just the pockets of very high rainfall see in the last
two nights.

Belanger snelson

00z update...

area of tsra moving out of south carolina and into eastern ga will
continue moving westward across the forecast area this evening.

Convection will dissipate toward 06z with isolated to scattered
showers for the rest of tonight. Convection will begin again
Friday with scattered to widespread shra tsra after 15-18z. Cigs
will become MVFR this evening and ifr after midnight. CIGS will
improve through the morning Friday. Winds will remain easterly
through the forecast.

Atl confidence... 00z update...

medium on timing of tsra Friday.

High on remaining elements.


Preliminary point temps pops
Athens 67 80 67 83 70 70 60 50
atlanta 68 80 68 82 70 60 50 60
blairsville 64 77 63 79 70 60 60 60
cartersville 67 81 67 83 60 50 40 60
columbus 70 85 69 84 60 60 60 60
gainesville 67 77 66 80 70 70 60 60
macon 69 83 68 84 70 70 60 50
rome 68 83 67 84 50 40 40 60
peachtree city 68 81 67 83 70 60 50 60
vidalia 70 85 70 85 70 60 30 40

Ffc watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch through Saturday morning for the following
zones: baldwin... Banks... Barrow... Bibb... Bleckley... Butts...

carroll... Chattahoochee... Cherokee... Clarke... Clayton... Cobb...

coweta... Crawford... Crisp... Dawson... Dekalb... Dodge... Dooly...

douglas... Emanuel... Fayette... Forsyth... Glascock... Greene...

gwinnett... Hall... Hancock... Harris... Heard... Henry... Houston...

jackson... Jasper... Jefferson... Johnson... Jones... Lamar...

laurens... Lumpkin... Macon... Madison... Marion... Meriwether...

monroe... Montgomery... Morgan... Muscogee... Newton... North
fulton... Oconee... Oglethorpe... Paulding... Peach... Pickens...

pike... Pulaski... Putnam... Rockdale... Schley... South fulton...

spalding... Stewart... Sumter... Talbot... Taliaferro... Taylor...

telfair... Toombs... Treutlen... Troup... Twiggs... Upson... Walton...

warren... Washington... Webster... Wheeler... White... Wilcox...

wilkes... Wilkinson.

Short term... 17
long term... .Rw
aviation... 17

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 98 mi53 min SE 1.9 G 5.1 72°F

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gainesville, Gilmer Memorial Airport, GA7 mi40 minSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F70°F88%1018.3 hPa
Gwinnett County Airport-Briscoe Field, GA15 mi37 minESE 810.00 miThunderstorm73°F68°F84%1017 hPa

Wind History from GVL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE3E3SE3--CalmE3CalmCalmCalmNE4Calm3E6E5E6E7E5S5E634E7E10SE7
1 day agoNE3NE4E3S3--CalmCalmS3CalmCalmE5E5NE5SE6E5SE7CalmE6SE55E6CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS3CalmS4SE3CalmCalmSE4SE4SE4E4SE4E54E7SE43SE7SE5SE55E6E8CalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Peachtree City, GA (21,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Atlanta, GA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.