Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Flowery Branch, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:25PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 4:10 PM EST (21:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:50PMMoonset 8:09AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flowery Branch, GA
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location: 34.19, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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Fxus62 kffc 202004
afdffc
area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
304 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Afternoon forecast update...

Short term tonight through Thursday night
A line of thunderstorms is entering the northwest corner of the cwa
and is expected to slowly push southeastward into the area during
the late afternoon and into the overnight hours. This axis of
showers and thunderstorms is once again expected to stall during the
overnight hours along and north of the i-85 corridor, including the
metro area.

As a warm front pushes through the area this afternoon and evening,
the atmosphere will destabilize enough to allow for MUCAPE values in
the 500-1000 j kg range to spread across our forecast area.

Maintained a chance of thunder this afternoon through late Thursday
as a result. Moisture is continuing to increase as well due to the
continued southwest flow aloft combined with warm, southeasterly
gulf air behind the warm front. Pwat values will approach the 1.6 to
1.8 inch range by late afternoon which is abnormally high for the
month of february for our area, necessitating an upward trend in
pops and rainfall rates across northern georgia.

A cold front will then move into north georgia Thursday. Model
guidance is coming into better agreement that the front may not be
able to make it through the forecast area due to the parallel
southwesterly flow aloft. Hi-res models similarly keep the front
oriented SW to NW across the northern portion of georgia, then lift
the heaviest precipitation into tn ky on early Friday morning.

Gfs ECMWF are coming into agreement with this thinking as well.

Total QPF amounts have been trended up to around 1 to 3 inches
across the axis of precipitation over north and west georgia from
this afternoon through tomorrow afternoon. Locally higher amounts
will also be possible due to the convective nature of the
precipitation, along with the possibility of some training.

Moreover, soils are saturated due to previous rainfall
accumulations, so this amount of rainfall will produce significant
runoff and lead to some additional creek and river flooding. A flash
flood watch is in effect for most of north georgia, as a result.

This flash flood watch replaces the previously issued areal flood
watch.

King

Long term Friday through Wednesday
The long term begins with a stalled front draped across the
northern portions of our CWA with the southwesterly firehose of
enhanced moisture still firmly in place. Luckily the axis of
heaviest rainfall looks to be located further to the north and
west, but continued accumulations are expected through Sunday.

A planetary rossby wave train will begin to move through the area
on Friday which will act to amplify the troughs and ridges in
place over the CONUS and break us out of the pattern we've been
stuck in for the last week. This amplification of the ridge over
the eastern u.S. Will strengthen a surface high and kick it out
of the great lakes region into new england. This high pressure,
once it starts to transition to the east side of the appalachians
on Friday, will enhance cold air damming along the southeastern
blue ridge mtns and drive a wedge front into north georgia. This
extra lift will act to enhance precip in the region on Friday and
Saturday as the warm, moist flow overrides the cool air.

An upper level trough, also enhanced by the rossby wave train,
will begin to lift across the eastern CONUS on Sunday, occluding
a surface low-pressure system on its journey from the southern
plains to the great lakes. A cold front extending from the system
then pushes through the area Sunday morning afternoon. Then for
the first time, in what seems like a very long time, we'll expect
mostly sunny skies and drier conditions for several days. Hooray!
a surface high pressure, now expected to be stronger than in
previous model runs, will follow the front and settle into the
area. As of the new 12z runs of the GFS and euro, this high
pressure will push the next expected subtropical wave back a full
day. Keeping the area dry until next Wednesday, when we resume a
more regular synoptic pattern.

Thiem

Aviation
18z update...

a mix of ifr lifr CIGS will continue through the forecast, along
with reduced visibilities. To start the period this afternoon,
winds will be E at about 7-12 kts. Winds will then weaken during
the overnight hours tonight, and are expected to gradually shift
to W to NW by the early morning hours Thursday. The highest rain
chances remain across north georgia, with -shra anticipated across
the metro TAF sites and ahn tonight and into Thursday. With some
instability behind a warm front lifting northward across the area,
there is a chance for -tsra this afternoon and tonight. Some
elevated wind shear is possible in the northern sites between
about 02-08z. Left thunder out of the TAF for now but will
continue to evaluate the 02-08z timeframe.

Atl confidence... 18z update...

low confidence on elevated wind shear and thunder chances.

Medium confidence on all other elements.

King

Preliminary point temps pops
Athens 46 62 54 59 60 60 70 60
atlanta 50 64 55 63 70 60 60 60
blairsville 46 59 51 57 80 80 70 80
cartersville 50 60 52 63 80 70 70 80
columbus 60 76 62 76 50 50 60 50
gainesville 44 60 53 57 80 70 70 70
macon 57 77 61 72 30 50 50 50
rome 50 58 51 61 90 70 70 80
peachtree city 53 68 56 66 60 60 60 60
vidalia 61 80 63 79 10 30 30 40

Ffc watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch through Thursday evening for the following
zones: banks... Barrow... Bartow... Carroll... Catoosa... Chattooga...

cherokee... Clayton... Cobb... Coweta... Dade... Dawson... Dekalb...

douglas... Fannin... Fayette... Floyd... Forsyth... Gilmer... Gordon...

gwinnett... Hall... Haralson... Heard... Jackson... Lumpkin...

murray... North fulton... Paulding... Pickens... Polk... South
fulton... Towns... Union... Walker... White... Whitfield.

Short term... King
long term... .Thiem
aviation... King


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 98 mi90 min NNE 8 G 9.9 44°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gainesville, Gilmer Memorial Airport, GA7 mi77 minE 121.50 miFog/Mist39°F39°F100%1020.7 hPa
Gwinnett County Airport-Briscoe Field, GA15 mi74 minE 8 G 162.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist40°F39°F100%1021.7 hPa
Winder, Winder-Barrow Airport, GA20 mi75 minE 61.50 miFog/Mist41°F41°F100%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from GVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11
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1 day agoNW9NW9W9W6W7W6W7W5NW7NW6N5NW4E8E7E10E6E7E11E11
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2 days agoE7E10E9E9E11N8NE3CalmW4CalmW5W7W10W9W7W9NW9
G17
W12W11NW11W10NW9N13
G21
NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Peachtree City, GA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Atlanta, GA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.