Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmington, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:18PM Monday May 29, 2017 11:36 PM EDT (03:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:04AMMoonset 11:11PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 909 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..W winds 10 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft... Building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 909 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will approach from the north Tuesday and then stall through much of the week...maintaining the threat for showers and Thunderstorms each day. SW winds will prevail through much of the week as high pressure off the se u.s. Coast continues its foothold across the area waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmington, NC
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location: 34.2, -77.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 300155 aab
afdilm
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service wilmington nc
955 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will enter the area and stall through Tuesday night.

Another front will push in from the northwest on Wednesday and
just barely clear the region Thursday. It may return northward
as a warm front Friday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 955 pm Monday... Several strong storms will translate
across NE sc through evening, interaction with the sea breeze
and outflows cloud sustain storms capable of large, hail. In
lake city sc hail the size of quarters was reported earlier.

Based of radar data storms over SE nc will likely remain sub-
severe through evening, but may re-generate near the CAPE fear
region after 6z. No watch is planned from SPC based on the
isolated nature of the severe threat. The convection is expected
to push off the coast by around 8z 4am. Primary threat is large
hail and high wind gusts.

As of 7 pm Monday... Storms will move into our far interior
zones in the middle evening, and currently a watch borders our
zones west of i-95. It would not be surprising to see a new
watch come out soon extended eastward to the coast as an upper
level disturbance sustains convection well past peak heating.

The main threat damaging winds and large hail. Interior NE sc
still showing sfc based capes of 2000-3000 j kg with effective
bulk shear values between 40-60 kt across much of the area.

As of 300 pm Monday... The mid level pattern remains essentially the
same as the past couple of days with a relatively moist
southwest flow between high pressure off the southeast coast and
low pressure meandering about in the great lakes region. The
surface pattern isn't much to speak of other than bermuda high
pressure. These elements will remain in place through
essentially Tuesday, the near term period.

For pops, high resolution and other guidance has been very
consistent in showing thunderstorms developing later this afternoon
and moreso this evening in western north and south carolina and
eventually consolidating a bit and moving across our area, which
takes up a good deal of the overnight hours. There are some
indications an initial broken line or area of thunderstorms could
just miss our area to the northwest but guidancs shows this area
eventually filling in to the south. I have trended pops upward out
of respect to the consistent guidance. SPC maintains most of the
area in a slight risk highlighting our area for after dark with
strong winds and hail the primary threats.

For Tuesday, similar progression as today with a stable NVA scenario
in the morning hours. Guidance shows a more diffuse pattern of
convection for the afternoon hours and we are still advertising
pops, although the better chances appear to be shaping up for
tonight.

Thermal profiles appear to be unchanged from today for Tuesday, at
least on the 12 utc guidance and Tuesday may actually be just as
warm as today as we may fall just short of the lower 90s expected
today. Overnight lows, stuffy once again mostly in the 70s with
maybe an upper 60 or two once again assisted by thunderstorm cooled
air.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night
As of 300 pm Monday... Frontal boundary stalled right along the coast
Tuesday night. So even as some weak vorticity energy passes overhead
the area should be too stable for anything other than very isolated
showers. And although heading into Wednesday a piedmont trough weak
front does form west of here most guidance keeps the deep layer
moisture off the coast. This should once again keep minimized the rain
chances over land, the sea breeze being the most likely culprit in
bringing an isolated thunderstorm. Temperatures through the period
will average about 3 degrees above seasonable norms.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 300 pm Monday... An active weather pattern expected during this
period... Mainly after Thursday. Looking at the longwave pattern
aloft... The fa will remain basically under the influence of an upper
trof at the start of this period(Thursday). Models develop split
upper flow across the area by the weekend with west to NW flow from
canada associated with the longwave trof... And at the same time,
flow from the lower latitudes with some pacific and gulf of mexico
influences. With the mean trof axis remaining just west of the fa,
mid- level S W trofs from 2 different origins will be able to track
across the fa or in close proximity. Avbl moisture will not be a
problem.

At the sfc, short-lived dry high pressure from the NW will affect
the fa on thu. There-after, the high anchored well off the SE u.S.

Coast will ridge back to the u.S. With it's axis extending inland
vcnty of ga-fl, well south of the fa. A sfc cold front will drop to
the fa late Fri and likely stalling across a portion of the ilm cwa
during the upcoming weekend and into next week. Pops will be at
their lowest during Thu then ramping up slowly Fri and peaking
during the weekend into next week. Any mid-level S W trofs ie. Upper
disturbances, that affect the fa will likely be the factor that
determines whether severe thunderstorms will occur. I might be
overly optimistic in pushing the stalled front south of the fa by
mon, given the time of year. MAX temperatures will run at or
slightly hier than normal depending on cloud cover and pcpn
occurrence. Min temps will run likely 5+ degrees above normal.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 00z... Somewhat of a repeat of Sunday's scenario with
mostlyVFR conditions expected through the period, although
a possibility of strong thunderstorms developing later this
evening across the western areas and traversing the entire area
slowly west to east overnight, hence the numerous prob 30 groups
in the taf's. Convection off the coast before daybreak, withVFR
Tuesday 12z-18z, then isolated convection 18z-00z.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr conditions are possible in
thunderstorms Tuesday, mainly during evening aft 00z. More
typical scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday through Friday.

Marine
Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning ...

as of 955 pm Monday... Expect mostly southwest winds 10-15 knot
range through the period. The speeds will peak once again this
evening but generally be a little lighter than Sunday evening. A
weak surface through will follow expected convection early
Tuesday morning but it appears it doesn't have the push the one
had earlier today to allow a few hours of westerly flow.

Significant seas should stay close to two feet through the
period. Strong storms may approach the near shore waters in the
late evening or just after midnight. The storms will be capable
of pushing wind gusts to 50 kt. Mariners should keep a watch on
radar overnight.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 pm Monday...

very light SW flow expected Tuesday night as a frontal
boundary stalls along the coastline. This flow regime and minimal
seas will persist into Wednesday and only gradually increase by
about 5 kt heading into later Wednesday and Wednesday night in
response to a piedmont trough developing further inland.

Long term Thursday through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... A frontal boundary at the start of Thu will
waver east and south of the local waters before dissipating
altogether. High pressure having dropped in from the NW will
temporarily prevail during Thu with offshore winds backing to the sw
by the end of the day. For Fri thru sat, the high centered well
offshore from the SE u.S. Coast will be the primary driver for winds
across the local waters. With the sfc ridge axis extending west and
inland near the ga-fl coasts, wind directions will primarily be from
the sw. The sfc pg does tighten during Fri into the upcoming weekend
and could see scec thresholds being met if this trend continues.

Initially, significant seas will be driven by both a weak NE 8+
second period ground swell and locally produced wind waves. But by
the weekend, 3 to 6 second period wind driven waves will dominate
the seas spectrum per latest wavewatch3 and swan model data.

Could see 5 footers during the weekend, with scec type conditions.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... mbb 8
near term... Shk 8
short term... mbb
long term... Dch
aviation... 8 sgl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 3 mi111 min WSW 5.1 77°F 1017 hPa71°F
WLON7 5 mi48 min 76°F 78°F1016.7 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 5 mi48 min SW 8.9 G 11 78°F 76°F1015.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 9 mi37 min 77°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi88 min SSW 7.8 G 12 77°F 76°F1016.1 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi88 min SSW 9.7 G 14 77°F 78°F1016 hPa
41108 34 mi49 min 77°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 41 mi88 min SW 7.8 G 12 77°F 78°F1016 hPa
SSBN7 41 mi96 min 2 ft
41064 49 mi88 min SW 9.7 G 14 78°F 78°F1016.6 hPa
41159 49 mi53 min 78°F3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC6 mi43 minSSW 710.00 miFair77°F69°F77%1016.9 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC21 mi51 minSW 410.00 miFair77°F72°F85%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW5SW7W6SW6W5W6W7W5W43N4NW643S6S8S6SW7SW7SW7SW8S8SW7
1 day agoSW6SW6SW4SW3S3SW4SW6SW5SW6SW7SW10SW10SW13SW10SW13SW13
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2 days agoS3S3CalmSW3S3CalmCalmS3SW5SW5S7W7SW11SW7W11SW11SW11SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:29 AM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:27 AM EDT     3.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:21 PM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:53 PM EDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.942.61.20.1-0.4-0.40.11.12.23.13.63.63.12.11.10.1-0.3-0.20.41.42.73.94.7

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:15 AM EDT     4.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:29 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:59 PM EDT     3.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:31 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.74.64.13.32.51.70.7-0.1-0.10.82.13.13.73.93.62.92.11.40.7000.92.33.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.