Sunday, December16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmington, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:05PM Sunday December 16, 2018 10:15 PM EST (03:15 UTC) Moonrise 1:14PMMoonset 12:39AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 926 Pm Est Sun Dec 16 2018
Overnight..W to nw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
AMZ200 926 Pm Est Sun Dec 16 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build in from the west through Tuesday. The high will move overhead late Tue and offshore from the outer banks Wednesday. Low pressure will gather strength across may impact the waters Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmington, NC
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location: 34.2, -77.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 170309
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1009 pm est Sun dec 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will slowly build in from the northwest early
this week, and remain over the carolinas through Wednesday.

Another potentially significant storm system could from moderate
to heavy amounts of rainfall across the area Thursday into
Friday. Dry high pressure will follow for next weekend.

Near term through Monday
As of 930 pm Sunday... Clear and sunny skies to prevail the next
24 hours. Temps tonight thru Mon running 1 to 2 categories above
normal (1 category = 5 degrees).

Closed upper low now over the atlantic waters off the mid-
atlantic coast. This upper low and sfc low counterpart will
continue to slowly lift ne, further away from the ilm cwa
overnight thru early next week. The last spoke, ie. Vort,
rotating around the upper low will push across the fa late
tonight. The sfc pg will remain tightened thru the night into
Monday as a sfc trof, associated with the upper vort, pushes
thru well b4 daybreak resulting in winds veering from westerly
to northwesterly. Subsidence aloft and the downslope trajectory
thru the atm column will tend to scour out any moisture that
even makes it across the appalachians.

A mid-level S W trof not associated with the upper low, located
over the central mississippi valley this evening, will race to
the ese, pushing off the SE u.S. Coast late Mon aftn. This will
help accelerate the upper low ne, much further away from the fa
during mon. In addition, a trof or a secondary cold front
associated with this upper S W trof, will push across the fa
late in the day Mon with temps behind this cfp running near
normal.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .

As of 3 pm Sunday... A west to northwest flow is in place at the
surface as low pressure exits off to the northeast and broad
high pressure builds in from the west. Interesting to see the
downslope flow keeping our area mostly cloud free while stratus
is encircling the region elsewhere. The forecast is for high and
dry conditions to continue tonight and Monday as high pressure
settles in from the northwest. The boundary layer remains a
little mixed tonight thus preventing ideal radiational
conditions and expect lows overall to drop mostly into the
lower 40s. Highs recover Monday to the middle 60s or so.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
As of 3 pm Sunday... Dry wx for the short term period as surface
high pressure becomes centered directly over nc. Deep layer
moisture will be quite low the entire period... Mostly
clear mostly sunny skies with temps slightly below
climatological norms... Highs Tuesday in the mid 50s with lows
both nights in the 30s inland, lwr 40s near the coast.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 3 pm Sunday... Dry wx to start off the long term period
Wednesday as high pressure slides offshore ahead of the next low
pressure system. Warm air advection and increasing moisture
transport will then lead to increasing rain chances starting
Wednesday night, and especially for Thursday (70% pops). Another
heavy rainmaker is possible leading to amounts of at least 1-2
inches. 12z GFS 12z ECMWF both show the precip continuing into
Thursday night, before ending by Friday. Dry weather then over
the weekend as surface high pressure slowly builds in from the
west. High temps in the 60s Thursday-Friday and 50s Saturday-
Sunday.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
As of 0z...VFR conditions will continue to prevail throughout taf
period. Clear skies, with few high clouds possible early afternoon,
as surface high pressure builds in from the west. Winds will remain
from the north-northwest between 5 and 10 kts.

Extended outlook...VFR, except periods of MVFR wed, and periods of
MVFR shra thur.

Marine
Near term through Monday ...

as of 930 pm Sunday... The sfc pg will remain tightened across
the area waters thruout this fcst period. A sfc trof will push
across the waters late tonight, veering the winds from W to nw.

Speeds around 15 kt or 15 to 20 kt. A cfp is slated for late mon
followed by CAA combining with the tightened sfc pg to produce
15 to 25 kt winds with hier gusts. May need a short term SCA or
a scec at the minimum. Significant seas will run 3 to 5 ft, with
the hier seas from the outer waters off little river inlet to
the outer waters east of CAPE fear. Sig. Seas primarily made up
of 5 to 6 second period wind waves with an underlying 1 to 2
foot SE ground swell 8 to 9 second periods.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .

As of 3 pm Sunday... Westerly flow of 15-20 knots in place over
the waters as expected this afternoon with seas decreasing
slowly. The flow will turn a bit more toward the northwest
tonight and then eventually the north Monday morning. Speeds
will remain elevated for a few more hours but decrease
appreciably Monday morning to 10-15 knots. A similar trend is in
store for seas and will go ahead and cancel the remaining small
craft advisory that is only in place until 6 pm. Overall
significant seas will settle into a range of 2-4 feet after a
few hours of 3-5 feet initially.

Short term and long term Monday night through Thursday ...

as of 3 pm Sunday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions through
the middle of this week as high pressure builds in from the nw.

Winds mainly 10-20 kt through Thursday morning with 2-4 ft seas.

Winds and seas will increase Thursday afternoon, most likely
reaching SCA thresholds by Thursday evening as the next storm
system affects the local waters.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mas dch
near term... Dch shk
short term... Mas
long term... Mas
aviation... Vao


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 5 mi28 min W 7 G 14 54°F 67°F1015.3 hPa
WLON7 5 mi28 min 52°F 47°F1015.3 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi68 min W 9.7 G 14 55°F 55°F1015.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 9 mi16 min 54°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi68 min W 18 G 23 60°F 63°F1015.1 hPa
41108 34 mi16 min 56°F4 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 41 mi68 min W 12 G 16 55°F 55°F1015.8 hPa
41064 49 mi68 min WNW 18 G 23 61°F 64°F1013.7 hPa
41159 49 mi16 min 64°F5 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC6 mi23 minWSW 810.00 miFair51°F45°F80%1015.4 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC21 mi36 minW 710.00 miFair52°F45°F78%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW4SW5SW7W8SW9W9SW8SW8SW8W13W11W11W13W14W13W11W12W9SW6W5SW7SW7W8
1 day agoS7S4S9S4S3S3SE3S7S4SW4CalmCalmS7S7S7S8SW8W6S5SW5SW4S5SW6W6
2 days agoE5E6E7E7E7NE5E7E7NE8N7NE8NE7E4CalmSE6SE7SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
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Sun -- 12:39 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:47 AM EST     3.35 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:19 AM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:10 PM EST     3.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:53 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.93.33.33.12.721.510.80.91.42.12.83.23.43.32.92.31.610.60.40.81.5

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:39 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:04 AM EST     3.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:48 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:32 PM EST     3.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:15 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.93.33.43.32.821.20.80.40.30.71.72.73.33.53.53.22.41.50.80.30.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.