Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmington, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:25PM Friday March 22, 2019 8:35 AM EDT (12:35 UTC) Moonrise 8:26PMMoonset 7:30AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 600 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..W winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft, except 3 ft near shore.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 kt, becoming n. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt or less, becoming s. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ200 600 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will move across the waters this evening. High pressure will ridge in from the northwest Saturday and move overhead during Sunday. Low pressure along a cold front will affect the area Monday night and Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmington, NC
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location: 34.2, -77.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 221005
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
605 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
A dry cold front is expected to move across the area this evening.

Dry weather and seasonable temps under high pressure will prevail
this weekend. Low pressure and a cold front will spread clouds and
rain into the carolinas late Monday into Tuesday, followed again by
high pressure through the mid-week period.

Near term through Saturday
As of 3 am Friday... The strong vorticity maximum will continue to
lift away toward the northeast during the early morning hours. The
chance of showers is rapidly coming to an end as a result. A much
drier column is expected with increasing subsidence in the wake of
the mid upper trough axis that will persist through the near term
period. The main forecast issue today is for gusty winds along with
near critical relative humidity as drier air mixes to the surface.

As a result, have undercut guidance with respect to dewpoints and
expect winds of 15-25 mph with gusts toward 30 mph this afternoon. A
dry frontal passage is expected this evening with high pressure to
ridge into the area later tonight into Saturday. Less wind expected
Saturday with slightly cooler temperatures and sunny skies.

High tide water levels are expected to gradually improve at downtown
wilmington. However, marginal minor coastal flooding is expected
with the high tide around noon today, and with slightly higher water
levels with high tide around midnight tonight.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As of 3 am Friday... Canadian high building in from the northwest
moves over the area Sat night, setting up what should be excellent
radiational cooling conditions. Forecast soundings do show a hint of
moisture around 30k ft which could lead to some cirrus spreading
over the area after midnight, which could interrupt cooling a bit.

Continue to anticipate temperatures in the mid 30s Sun morning.

Typical cold spots could dip below freezing with potential for upper
20s if radiational cooling can be maximized. Center of the high
moves off the coast Sun morning with weak return flow setting up.

Mid-level pattern is fairly flat for much of the period, with only a
hint of southwest flow aloft developing late Sun night. Although the
mid-level pattern remains flat, moisture aloft will gradually start
increasing Sun night as weak shortwaves move into the region from
the southern plains. Weakening nature of the shortwaves coupled with
low level dry air will likely keep the region dry through the end of
the period. Temperatures Sun and Sun night will be near to slightly
above climo.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 3 am Friday... Series of weak surface lows, associated with a
few weak shortwaves, will develop along a slow moving front in the
southeast Mon into tue. Final shortwave arrives on tue, helping kick
the surface features offshore while ushering in a slightly cooler
and much drier air mass. High pressure builds in from the northwest
wed with its influence weakening Thu as it retreats north.

-only rainfall chances will be later Mon into Tue afternoon.

Potential for widespread quarter to half an inch of rainfall.

-temps well above climo Mon in strong warm advection regime
continue Mon night due to cloud cover.

-clouds and lingering showers will keep temps below climo tue
with brief cold advection Tue night dropping lows below climo.

-cooler air Wed will keep temps below climo, but warming trend
wed night into Thu returns temps to climo for the end of the
period.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
As of 12z... 500 mb low pressure has shifted to the north overnight
and skies have cleared and a dry frontal passage is expected around
00 utc Saturday. High confidenceVFR forecast through the period.

Westerly winds are expected to gust beginning by mid-morning and
continuing through the late afternoon. With the frontal passage
around dark wind will become more northwest by drop from 8 to 10
knots to 4 to 6kt by 10 utc Saturday.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions expected Saturday afternoon
through early next week as high pressure builds over the area.

Possible MVFR early next week as next frontal system impacts the
area.

Marine
As of 3 am Friday... Low pressure off the jersey coast around
day break will lift northeast with moderate to strong offshore
flow across the waters. A dry cold front will pass across the
waters this evening allowing the flow to veer to a northerly
direction overnight. Northerly flow will gradually weaken
during Saturday as high pressure ridges in from the oh valley
resulting in a much weaker pressure gradient. The offshore flow
will support a large range in seas through tonight. Seas will
improve with the aforementioned weaker pressure gradient
during Saturday. Have extended the small craft advisory for
the sc and nc waters, with thresholds lasting longer across
the nc legs. Otherwise, widely scattered showers will quickly
exit the nc waters toward the east during the early morning
hours.

Light and variable winds Sat night into Sun with surface high
centered overhead. High shifts offshore during Sun with light
southerly flow developing. Seas through the end of the weekend will
be 2 ft or less. Southwest flow starts increasing on Monday as the
high exits east and gradient becomes more defined. Seas will slowly
build from around 2 ft Mon morning to 2 to 4 ft Mon night with winds
peaking around 15 kt overnight. Low pressure moves north of the area
early tue, dragging a cold front offshore. Northerly flow increases
tue, peaking in the 20 to 25 kt range late in the day with seas
increasing to 4 to 6 ft late in the period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory from 11 am this morning to 1 pm edt
this afternoon for ncz107.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for amz254-
256.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Saturday for amz250-252.

Synopsis...

near term... Srp
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... Srp mcw
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 5 mi41 min W 12 G 15 47°F 55°F1010 hPa
WLON7 5 mi41 min 45°F 55°F1010.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 9 mi35 min 56°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi27 min WNW 21 G 27 53°F 58°F1009.6 hPa
41108 34 mi35 min 58°F4 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 41 mi27 min NW 18 G 21 48°F 58°F1011.1 hPa
41064 49 mi27 min NW 21 G 29 53°F 60°F1007.7 hPa
41159 49 mi35 min 60°F6 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC6 mi42 minW 1110.00 miFair46°F37°F73%1010.3 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC21 mi55 minWNW 810.00 miFair45°F36°F74%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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W6W6--SW6W6W11W11W9W9W12W9W10W10W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:53 AM EDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:51 AM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:13 PM EDT     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:20 PM EDT     4.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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31.70.5-0.4-0.7-0.20.92.23.44.24.443.22.10.9-0.1-0.6-0.30.61.93.14.14.64.5

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:23 AM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:53 AM EDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:45 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:22 PM EDT     4.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.22.31.40.3-0.4-0.30.82.33.54.24.44.13.32.51.70.8-0-0.20.51.93.34.24.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.