Monday, June25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmington, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:29PM Monday June 25, 2018 3:57 AM EDT (07:57 UTC) Moonrise 5:18PMMoonset 3:16AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 347 Am Edt Mon Jun 25 2018
Today..SW 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..SE winds 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..N winds 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 347 Am Edt Mon Jun 25 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will drop down from the north today into tonight before stalling over the waters and becoming more diffuse through Tuesday. Another cold front will reach the waters on Thursday. High pressure will build down behind it heading into next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmington, NC
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location: 34.2, -77.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 250743
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
343 am edt Mon jun 25 2018

Synopsis
Hot and humid conditions will continue through today. Showers and
thunderstorms will become more numerous this afternoon into Tuesday
ahead of a cold front, which will bring some relief from the heat
for midweek. Temperatures will rebound to above normal again late in
the week, with the potential for another cold front to approach the
area on Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 am Monday... Winds will be veering around through
tonight as front drops down from the north. As winds veer around
at the sfc from SW to W and eventually north as boundary drops
south, the winds aloft will be W to nw. This should focus
convection along the sea breeze convergent boundary closer to
the coast and then along the front as it pushes south. Storms
should begin to develop as we reach convective temps early this
aftn. Strong sfc heating, steep lapse rates, CAPE up near 4000
j kg, precip water values up over 2 inches will all help to
support decent convective development which will be more
isolated in nature initially, but will increase in coverage
heading into this evening and tonight as a shortwave tracks
across the carolinas. This will enhance convection with severe
potential along with possibility of excessive rainfall. SPC has
the carolinas in marginal risk with a slight risk reaching into
the i-95 corridor with a 15% threat of damaging winds.

The winds will be quite variable and fairly weak as boundary drops
slowly south over the area. Low pressure develops west of the area
as shortwave moves east and then tracks through mainly after
midnight. The variable and lighter low level winds initially should
make for some interesting boundary interactions with the NW steering
flow initially stronger pushing the storms toward the SE and the
coast. As the shortwave reaches the coastal carolinas, the winds
aloft will back to the w-sw maintaining a more e-ne storm direction.

Sounding data shows winds increasing out of the SW up to 45 kts
between 06z and 09z. This should transition to a more linear
development and greater potential for wind damage overnight, whereas
initially the mid level flow weakens late aftn into the eve leaving
slower moving storms and potential for flooding. Wpc has local area
highlighted for slight risk of excessive rainfall and flash
flooding. Have not included any enhanced wording in forecast yet,
but may want to consider as confidence grows with event evolving.

Slightly lower overnight dewpoints and temps will will give a less
of a jumpstart for high temps today. Overall expect another hot and
humid day with temps reaching between 90 and 95 most places. The
warmest will be over williamsburg and georgetown counties as they
will be the last area the front drops into, with heat index values
just making it to 105, but possibly only for an hour before aftn
convection lowers them a bit. Overnight lows will be a few degrees
less behind cold front with most places between 70 and 75. The 850
temps will drop a couple of degrees through the period.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 3 am Monday... Cold front in the area at the start of the
period will gradually sink south during Tue before stalling and
slowly dissipating on wed. Series of weak shortwaves will move
through the flat mid-level flow, along the boundary. These impulses
will have plenty of moisture tap into, precipitable water is
forecast to approach 2.40 inches on tue. Abundant cloud cover will
limit heating and thus cape, but it won't take much given the
surface boundary and the mid-level support. The last shortwave later
tue could be particularly potent with some of the guidance showing a
well defined surface low with the shortwave. All of this points to
an active day convection wise with good agreement on precip chances
in the likely category. If the final shortwave is as strong as
depicted by the NAM ecmwf, widespread heavy rain and localized
flooding could be an issue Tue afternoon. Cloud cover will help keep
highs in the low to mid 80s. Debris cloud and moisture lingering in
the region Tue night will keep lows above climo. Precip chances will
be decreasing overnight as slightly drier air aloft and subsidence
in the wake of the final wave spreads over the region.

Front lingers in or just south of the area Wed becoming diffuse as
heating pushes temps into the upper 80s and sea breeze becomes
better defined. Significant differences between the GFS and
nam ECMWF solutions for wed. This is down to the handling of the tue
afternoon evening shortwave. GFS solution would produce isolated to
scattered convection with precipitable water around 1.9 inches and
mlcape 2500-3000 j kg. Nam ECMWF solution has stronger post wave
subsidence in the area, as surface low off the nc sc coast starts to
become more defined. Subsidence coupled with slightly drier air
aloft leads to less convection. Will maintain inherited solution
which was middle of the road between the 2 solutions, slight chance,
and hope for better agreement in coming model runs. Lingering low
level moisture and mixing will keeps lows above climo Wed night.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 3 am Monday... The GFS has a 500 mb shortwave moving
eastward and off the carolina coast on Thursday. The ECMWF is
more bullish with this shortwave, however it off to the
northeast ahead of the 500 mb ridge which builds eastward over
the eastern u.S. Late week into the weekend. Either scenario
would result in little direct impacts on our tangible weather.

The approach of a late-week cold front will maintain the
potential for unsettled weather into the weekend, as it will
likely stall somewhere in the area. Overall, it will be
difficult to rule out some degree of shower and thunderstorm
development in the CWA during any period of the extended
forecast.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
As of 06z... Showers and thunderstorms have moved offshore leaving
vfr conditions with a broken deck of ac right around 11-15k.

Winds will veer around through the TAF period as a cold front
drops down into the area. SW flow this morning will veer to the
west and then north by aftn. Will end up around to the e-se by
00z-06z this evening, but light. Winds should be high enough
this morning to prevent any fog.

The combination of a front and potent shortwave moving through will
produce some strong convection with possible ifr in heavier
rain later today into tonight. Initially expect the W to NW flow
to favor convection closer to the coast, especially over NE sc
affecting myr and cre, but later today into tonight, expect the
stronger convection possible. Added vrbl in possible stronger
gust in tsra this evening.

Extended outlook... MostlyVFR. Mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms each day with short duration flight category
restrictions possible, except for Tuesday as cold front lingers in
the area, producing increased chc of shwrs tstms.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 3 am Monday... A cold front will drop down from the north
today into tonight. Winds initially from the SW will veer to the
west as cold front approaches and will then shift around to the n
later today and should be more easterly by early tues, but remaining
on the weaker side. Front will not make it through the local waters
before stalling and beginning to become more diffuse heading into
tues. Overall expect winds 10 to 15 kts with winds slightly stronger
in SW flow to the south of the front. Seas up near 3 to 4 ft at the
moment will fall a bit through the day down to 2 to 3 ft most
waters.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

as of 3 am Monday... Cold front will be stalled in the area on
tue before washing out on wed. Presence of the boundary early in
the period will keep winds light and variable. Later Tue night
winds gain a bit of a northerly component but speeds remain
under 10 kt. Front washing out Wed allows the sea breeze and
possibly a weak low off the nc sc coast to play more of a role
in wind direction. East to southeast flow returns Wed with winds
becoming more southerly Wed night. Gradient is on the weak side
and speeds will remain 10 kt or less. Seas 2 to 3 ft on tue
drop to around 2 ft Tue night into wed. Development of east-
southeast flow Wed will build seas back to 2 to 3 ft later wed
and Wed night.

Long term Thursday through Friday ...

as of 3 am Monday... Weak low pressure along a stalled front
will lift off to the northeast with minimal direct impacts
expected across area waters at this time. Models have been
having trouble coming into agreement on this feature, so overall
confidence associated with it remains low. Another frontal
boundary will drop south into the carolinas on Friday, but at
this time it appears it will stall inland. Potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday and
Friday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Crm
near term... Rgz
short term... Iii
long term... Crm
aviation... Rgz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 5 mi40 min S 11 G 11 80°F 79°F1016.1 hPa
WLON7 5 mi46 min 76°F 85°F1015.6 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi50 min SSE 9.7 G 16 79°F 80°F1015.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 9 mi28 min 79°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi50 min SE 9.7 G 14 81°F 82°F1016.5 hPa
41108 34 mi28 min 82°F4 ft
SSBN7 41 mi178 min 1 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 41 mi50 min SW 16 G 21 81°F 81°F1015.4 hPa
41064 49 mi50 min WSW 12 G 18 78°F 82°F1016.8 hPa
41159 49 mi28 min 82°F4 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC6 mi65 minESE 510.00 miFair76°F72°F88%1015.5 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC21 mi78 minS 710.00 miFair81°F70°F72%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW8SW8SW6SW9SW9W10W11W9W10W12
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1 day agoS7SW7S6SW6SW7SW12SW12W11SW10W6SW10
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2 days agoW5CalmCalmSW4SW8SW8SW4W8SW10SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
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Mon -- 12:46 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:31 AM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:26 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:04 PM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.30.61.322.73.13.12.721.10.4000.51.42.53.54.14.44.23.52.51.5

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:11 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:37 AM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:18 PM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.40.5-0.10.21.12.133.63.63.12.31.610.3-0.2-0.10.82.13.244.44.23.62.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.