Thursday, March30, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Cartersville, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 8:00PM Thursday March 30, 2017 4:28 PM EDT (20:28 UTC) Moonrise 8:25AMMoonset 10:03PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cartersville, GA
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location: 34.2, -84.78     debug

Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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Fxus62 kffc 301747
area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
147 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Prev discussion /issued 1110 am edt Thu mar 30 2017/

have not made significant changes to the forecast this morning.

Complex/challenging forecast in store across the CWA today. Most
recent goes-r water vapor loop showing strong closed mid level low
centered over southeast kansas... With a notable shortwave embedded
within a cyclonic flow regime south of this main low emerging out
of the far southern plains/northern mexico. This system as a whole
will be responsible for a rather busy weather day today and
tonight. Quick gander at the sfc... Sfc low well stacked with mid
level low over SE ks... With cold front trailing to its S into
southern la... And warm front extending SE across eastern ga.

Recent radar imagery showing a complex of strong-severe
thunderstorms across southern la/ms... With some development to its
northeast across southern al. Also seeing precip over eastern
ga/western sc.

Based on latest available data... Feel the threat of strong-severe
storms will exist across majority of the CWA later today and
through tonight. Gulf coast convection being aided by dual polar
and subtropical jet entrance/exit regions... Which should allow it
to sustain itself eastward through the day. Given latest satellite
data... Feel enough breaks of Sun should allow for enough
destabilization to sustain some thunderstorm activity ahead of the
gulf convection. Things become a little fuzzy later this evening
as dual jet dynamics weaken in response to main low shifting
northeast. Left exit region of subtropical jet aligns more along
fl panhandle and helps develop/sustain sfc low in this general
area. This may rob portions of the area of moisture.

However... Main closed low becomes more negatively tilted as it
moves into the oh valley... Which combined with frontal forcing
could sustain any strong-severe activity moving in from the west.

prev discussion... /issued 352 am edt Thu mar 30 2017/
severe storms likely this evening into tonight...

short term /today through Friday/...

latest surface analysis shows high pressure over the new england
states beginning to bridge southward along the atlantic coast and
wedge into the carolinas. The leading edge of this will move into
eastern sections of the forecast area later this morning allowing
for an increase in low level clouds and perhaps even a little
drizzle. Not your typical cool season cad though as this one will
have a little more convective punch later this afternoon as low
clouds lift and instability increases. CAPE values on the order of
1500 j/kg are possible along eastern sections this afternoon and
will plenty of low level moisture in place and a focus along the
wedge front... Scattered showers and storms will develop.

Meanwhile... Strong system will be moving into the mid mississippi
valley with embedded strong shortwaves ahead of main upper low to
impact the area. Should see a healthy amount of precip coverage
for NW sections prior to 00z as moisture and lift increase.

Definitely a split jet pattern with one jet streak across the tn
valley and the other over the northern gulf. Concern with this
would be a split in precip as well with far north ga getting good
coverage as well as southern sections but areas in the middle

Thinking right now is this will be more tied to severe
potential and less to do with overall coverage and will continue
with categorical pops areawide. So speaking of the severe
potential... Models still not all that bullish with the instability
and keep it in the two distinct north and south axis referenced
above. Did go however 2 to 3 degrees above guidance for highs
today and by the time all is said and done... Would expect higher
instability values than what models currently project. Shear
certainly wont be an issue with 40 to 50 kts of 850mb flow to aid
in strong wind potential. Temps aloft remain on the cold aide as
well with a continued hail threat with the stronger storms. So
weighing the marginal instability with the strong shear and would
expect scattered strong to severe storms..Especially across the nw
portions... But not nearly as meaningful a threat as areas west of

Depending upon which model you go with... Activity could be well
west of the area by mid morning fri. This would keep the secondary
threat for severe storms over central ga Fri afternoon to a
minimum. For now have gone low end sct over the these areas giving
a nod to slower moving NAM but could be that Fri afternoon is
clearer than grids currently reflect.

long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...

warm and sunny weather returns just in time for the weekend with
upper ridging in control. Temperatures will be well above average
both Saturday and Sunday with highs by Sunday nearing 80 in north
georgia and well into the mid 80s in central georgia.

The tranquil weather comes to a quick end as the active pattern revs
back up. By late Sunday clouds will begin increasing ahead of the
next storm system with rain close behind. This next system will
follow a more southerly track than previous systems. The GFS brings
the surface low across southern tennessee into north carolina on
Monday while the ECMWF is a bit slower and farther north with the
center of the low. Regardless, expect widespread rain and
thunderstorms to overspread the area on Monday. The potential for
strong thunderstorms as well as heavy rainfall will also be a
concern during the Monday time. As the upper low passes overhead or
just north of the CWA Monday night into Tuesday morning, wraparound
rainfall can be expected into at least part of the day Tuesday.

Wednesday looks largely dry at this time, but the break in
storminess will again be brief as the progressive pattern continues.

The next storm system will already be knocking on the door of the
area, though there are model discrepancies with the timing.

Nonetheless, showers and thunderstorms will returning by the
Wednesday night into Thursday timeframe.


18z update...

vfr to prevail today with some precip affecting TAF sites later
tonight. Could see some isolated to scattered shower or
thunderstorm development late this afternoon into the beginning of
the overnight... But think main activity will hold off until
midnight or so for most sites. Have added prob30 or tempo in at
all sites overnight tonight. Will likely see MVFR CIGS during and
behind the precip activity... Lifting toVFR by mid-late morning
Friday. Winds will become gusty out of the s/sw between 15-20kts
this afternoon... Remaining slightly elevated overnight while
remaining on the west side.

//atl confidence... 18z update...

medium on precip timing
high on all else.


Preliminary point temps/pops
Athens 83 59 76 51 / 40 80 60 5
atlanta 83 58 74 52 / 30 90 40 5
blairsville 75 54 67 46 / 40 100 50 5
cartersville 82 56 72 49 / 30 100 30 5
columbus 85 60 77 54 / 30 90 40 5
gainesville 80 57 72 51 / 30 100 50 5
macon 86 61 78 53 / 20 70 60 5
rome 82 55 72 48 / 30 100 30 5
peachtree city 83 57 75 50 / 30 90 40 5
vidalia 87 64 82 57 / 20 50 40 5

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories

Short term... Kovacik
long term... .26
aviation... Kovacik

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cartersville, Cartersville Airport, GA6 mi36 minS 14 G 2310.00 miFair79°F46°F32%1008.6 hPa
Marietta, Cobb County-McCollum Field Airport, GA16 mi42 minS 8 G 1910.00 miClear81°F48°F32%1009.1 hPa
Dallas Paulding County Regional Airport, GA21 mi34 minS 8 G 1710.00 miFair84°F55°F37%1010.8 hPa
Rome, R. B. Russell Airport, GA23 mi36 minS 15 G 2510.00 miFair80°F53°F39%1007.8 hPa
Marietta / Dobbins Air Force Base, GA23 mi91 minSSE 13 G 1910.00 miOvercast80°F50°F36%1010.7 hPa

Wind History from VPC (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE5SE5CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSE4SE4S8S9
1 day agoNW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE34Calm3N4N4
2 days agoSE5SE4S4CalmS3CalmCalmSE4SE3CalmCalm3S5CalmCalmCalmCalm3Calm5CalmCalm43

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Peachtree City, GA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Atlanta, GA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.