Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 2:35 AM   Moonset 1:24 PM

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FXUS62 KFFC 021909 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 309 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024


Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

The weather today will be characterized by a 500 mb ridge positioned over the eastern CONUS. Skies are expected to be partly cloudy, with only scattered fair weather cumulus clouds underneath passing upper cirrus clouds. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to rise to between 8-12 degrees above climatological normals, mainly ranging from the mid 80s in far north Georgia to the low 90s in portions of central Georgia. Overnight into Friday morning, the ridge will move eastward towards the Atlantic coast while a shortwave trough rotates into the region around an upper low centered over the High Plains.
As this disturbance approaches, a cold front will advance through the Midwest, gradually slowing as it advances towards Kentucky.
Precipitation ahead of this feature will advance into far north Georgia on Friday morning, spreading southward over the course of the day.

By Friday afternoon, likely PoPs are forecast roughly north of the I-20 corridor, with chance PoPs elsewhere across the area.
With dewpoints in the low 60s and high temperatures forecast to be in the low to mid 80s in north Georgia and upper 80s in central Georgia, there will be ample instability to support thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Low-level shear and better dynamics are expected to stay north of the forecast area and closer to the frontal boundary. While severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday, isolated stronger storms could be capable of producing gusty winds.

King

LONG TERM
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

The surface high pressure over the western Atlantic shifting off to the east will help set the stage for a few rounds of active weather as several shortwave disturbances ripple through the base of the trough to our west. Saturday, the ridge axis just to our west will break down as the first shortwave disturbance produces showers and thunderstorms Saturday for much of the area. A sufficient amount of surface based CAPE (1000-1500+ J/kg) will be in place Saturday as isolated storms ahead of more organized clusters will move across the area. Severe weather is not expected at this time as limited wind shear and less than optimal lapse rates will struggle to maintain strong updrafts. However, a few storms could become strong on Saturday with damaging wind gusts, lightning, and periods of heavy rainfall being the primary hazards. Another shortwave on Sunday will produce an additional round of showers and thunderstorms with a final disturbance on Monday. While scattered to numerous activity is expected on Sunday and Monday, convective activity is not expected to be as widespread as Saturday. QPF through early Tuesday morning will range from a half inch across western central Georgia and increasing along an axis to the northeast to around an inch. As the ridge axis beings to reestablish itself across the east coast, the next disturbance will keep rain chances relegated to far north Georgia on Tuesday. A low end chance for precipitation will remain on Wednesday across far north Georgia Wednesday, but otherwise dry conditions will largely return.

While there will be periods of active weather throughout the long term forecast and will help lower temperatures over the weekend, the hottest temperatures of the year are expected by midweek.
Temperatures will remain in the low 80s on Saturday and Sunday, rebounding by midweek into the low 90s for most locations outside of the mountains.

KAL

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the day, with a cu field around 050-060 in place underneath passing upper cirrus clouds. Winds will be primarily SE at 4-8 kts this afternoon and through the overnight hours. Winds will are forecast to shift to SW at 5-10 kts by late Friday morning, around 15Z. Precipitation will enter far north Georgia by Friday morning and advance southward through the day. VCSH is being carried starting at 17Z at ATL, with a PROB30 for -SHRA from 18-00Z on Friday.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
Medium confidence on timing of precipitation and wind shift.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 62 83 64 80 / 10 40 50 80 Atlanta 65 84 65 82 / 10 40 50 80 Blairsville 60 76 59 74 / 20 70 70 90 Cartersville 64 84 62 82 / 10 40 60 80 Columbus 65 88 67 86 / 0 30 40 60 Gainesville 63 80 64 79 / 10 50 60 90 Macon 65 87 66 83 / 0 40 40 80 Rome 64 84 62 82 / 20 50 60 80 Peachtree City 65 85 64 83 / 10 30 50 80 Vidalia 66 89 67 84 / 0 20 30 70

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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