Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 1:23 PM   Moonset 2:08 AM

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FXUS62 KFFC 161023 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 623 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024


New 12Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Key Messages:

- Dry and warm weather are expected in the region today.

- Clouds and rain showers should return to the region Friday, leading to cooler temperatures across northern Georgia.

Today:

A transient upper level ridge building over Georgia today will produce dry weather and warmer temperatures. Subsidence and drier air below 700 mb should also result in mostly clear skies and lower humidity. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s are expected for everyone except those who dwell in the mountains of northern Georgia. If you happen to be one of those fine fellows then you can anticipate an afternoon high temperature in the 70s. Winds will be from the northwest again today, but weaker surface pressure gradients will bring wind speeds (5 to 10 mph) down compared to yesterday afternoon.

Tonight and Friday:

A weak surface high will settle over the southern Appalachians tonight. This high will combine with diurnal decoupling of the boundary layer to produce calm winds tonight. Widespread high cloud cover should stream back into Georgia tonight as southwesterly flow and moisture advection in the mid and upper levels intensifies ahead of a developing trough in the Southern Plains. A shortwave riding through the prevailing southwesterly flow aloft could push a few rain showers into western Georgia before sunrise on Friday. In general though the arrival of any rainfall should hold off until the daylight hours on Friday for most of Georgia. Expect rain chances to steadily increase through the day. By Friday afternoon our forecast rain chances range from 80 percent in northwest Georgia to 30 percent in east Central Georgia. Limited instability (MUCAPE < 500 J/kg in the 00Z HRRR guidance) suggests rain showers as the predominate precipitation type, with any thunderstorm activity being isolated at best. Widespread cloud cover and areas of rainfall should keep temperatures suppressed Friday afternoon. High temperatures should be 3 to 6 degrees below seasonal average in north Georgia (70s). Highs in the 80s remain in the forecast from Macon southward where more sunshine and less rainfall are expected.

Albright

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The beginning of the long term is filled with uncertainty thanks in part to unknowns around convective evolution on the previous day.
The HRRR, for instance, shows a significant ongoing MCS into Friday night to the south of the CWA and into the Gulf. Depending on how long this feature persisted, it would likely cut off more significant moisture return to the CWA on Saturday, limiting the overall rainfall. However, if this scenario doesn't play out, such as in much of the ensemble guidance and deterministic medium range models, rain and convection focused along and rising north of a baroclinic boundary would be on tap for Saturday, with the possibility of some flooding/flash flooding. Like previous days, QPF forecasts are 1-2" during the Saturday morning/afternoon time period, but there remains high variability within this, with details not likely to be fully known until we see how some of the convective evolution plays out on the previous days.

The upper level wave responsible for this system continues to move to the east and southeast by Sunday. Models are again favoring development of surface low off the coastline that allows for moisture to remain in the area on Sunday and then builds in some potential sudo-wedging into Monday. PoPs have been bumped up a touch, but for temperatures, there is a large potential range of forecast temps on Sunday and Monday based on cloud cover and the development of the sudo-wedge. The NBM IQR for AHN is 8 degrees on Monday, with nearly 15 degree difference in the 90th and 10th percentiles. So, have chosen to bring temps down compared to previous forecasts, but didn't want to completely buy in on the wedge forming just yet. If models continue to bite on wedge formation, expect forecast highs to drop further on those days.

We get another break from the precip from Monday into Tuesday as we get caught between upper level low off the coast and system developing across the Great Plains. Models show that rainfall chances should increase into Wednesday, though timing and details are still overall fuzzy.

Lusk

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions (unrestricted visibility and ceilings AOA 5000 ft AGL) will continue in the region through at least 12Z Friday.
Ceilings will decline after 12Z Friday, with some areas in western Georgia potential seeing MVFR conditions (ceilings 2000-3000 ft AGL) by 18Z. Rain showers will also be possible between 12Z and 18Z Friday. Northwest winds (6 to 12 kt) will continue through 00Z Friday, then light and variable winds are expected between 00Z and 15Z Friday. Southeast winds should occur after 15Z Friday.

//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
High confidence in all elements of the ATL TAF.

Albright

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 62 77 64 78 / 0 70 80 80 Atlanta 65 77 67 79 / 10 70 80 80 Blairsville 57 72 60 74 / 0 80 80 80 Cartersville 62 76 64 80 / 10 80 80 80 Columbus 67 82 69 80 / 20 70 70 80 Gainesville 63 74 65 77 / 0 70 80 80 Macon 65 83 68 80 / 0 60 70 80 Rome 62 77 65 80 / 20 80 80 80 Peachtree City 63 78 66 79 / 10 70 80 80 Vidalia 67 87 72 86 / 0 30 60 80

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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