Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wrightsville Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:57PM Thursday August 17, 2017 3:17 PM EDT (19:17 UTC) Moonrise 1:10AMMoonset 3:31PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1042 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Rest of today..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1042 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak pressure pattern will persist across the waters through the week with isolated showers and Thunderstorms possible. A cold front will approach the waters this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrightsville Beach, NC
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location: 34.21, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 171901
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
301 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
High heat and humidity will continue across the area into Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the
weekend ahead of a weak cold front, which will likely stall near
the area. Another cold front will push through the area next
week, with unsettled weather expected to continue.

Near term through Friday
As of 300 pm Thursday... Latest radar imagery is showing quite the
coverage of convection across the area this afternoon, much more
widespread than was seen yesterday. Returns are showing plenty of
lingering boundaries, which along with the weak piedmont trough and
seabreeze, have been aiding in the development thus far today.

Slower storm motion and pw values over 2 inches will continue to
support localized heavy rainfall, and the potential for minor
flooding. Expect convection to dissipate into the overnight
hours, with low temperatures dipping into the mid 70's. Do not
anticipate much in the way of fog develop or low CIGS as
lingering mid to high level clouds are expected into the morning
hours.

On Friday, weak riding aloft will set up across the area ahead of an
approaching weak cold front which is expected to affect the
area this weekend. With high temperatures in the lower 90's and
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70's, anticipate heat indices in
the 100's once again. At this time, do not expect all areas to
reach heat advisory criteria, but it more than likely will be
warranted for portions of the area. Will mention the potential
for typical summertime isolated to scattered convection in the
afternoon hours with diurnal heating, lingering boundaries and
available low level moisture.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 300 pm Thursday... Longwave trough digging across the oh vly
will drop SE into Saturday night, pushing a surface cold front into
the area. Ahead of this feature, deep SW flow advects tremendous
moisture in the form of pwats over 2.25 inches Saturday, which
should serve as fuel for convection along the front, especially
Saturday aftn eve where it merges with the sea breeze. This is in
response to continued very warm and unstable air, with MLCAPE over
2000 j kg likely as highs rise into the low 90s and dewpoints remain
at least the mid 70s, if not near 80 in some places. Most of this
convection should wane with loss of heating, but should refocus
offshore as the front stalls in the vicinity. Temps Saturday night
will be cooler than we have seen in many days as some dry advection
works into the column, pushing mins into the mid 70s, down from near
80 Friday night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Thursday... Stalled front really losing its identity to
our west on Sunday while light zonal mid level flow helps to confine
deepest moisture and thus best rain chances along the coast. This
front appears to wash out completely by Monday leaving behind some
weak troughiness on Monday. This doesn't elucidate much regarding
eclipse view especially along the coast since in such a
setup cumulus development should be fairly widespread and vertically
vigorous. Tuesday should represent the lowest rainfall chances
during the period with a pinned seabreeze, zonal flow aloft, and a
piedmont trough to our west. Energetic northwest flow and the next
cold front arrive on Wednesday. This front may have a better chance
than the early week boundary in clearing the area at least in part
on Thursday as there is a stronger upper trough and higher surface
pressures driving its progress.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 18z... Potential for periods of MVFR in any heavy
downpours and stronger storms this afternoon and evening.

Otherwise expectVFR.

Latest radar imagery depicts scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the area this afternoon, as heavy downpours are already
creating reduced visibilities at kilm. Expect trend to continue
throughout the rest of today as vcts prevails in going
forecast, with tempo groups to account for scattered convection.

Into tonight, expect convection to dissipate, giving way toVFR
through into Friday morning, with passing mid level clouds.

Winds overnight will be light and variable.

Extended outlook... Potential for MVFR ifr through Friday as
unsettled weather continues, with chances increasing into the
weekend with a passing cold front. Would not entirely rule out
patchy stratus fog towards the morning hours each day.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Southwest winds around 10 kts this
evening into the overnight hours will increase to 10 to 15 kts
Friday afternoon ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Seas
of 2 ft are expected through the period, with 3 fters gradually
building in across the outer waters.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Cold front approaching from the NW will
stall just inland from the coast Saturday. This leaves SW flow
across the waters, with wind speeds around 15 kts through the
period. These winds will help drive a 3-4 ft 5sec SW wind wave atop
the persistent 8-9 sec SE swell, and seas will be 2-4 ft across all
waters.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Very light southwesterly flow Sunday
and Monday with a cold front decaying into a weak surface
trough. Seas will be running their fairly 'normal' 2-3 and
occasionally 4 ft. The trough may wash out for a time Monday
night for some light and variable winds but it reforms Tuesday
for a return of south to southwesterly flow, likely capped at
10kt.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for scz017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.

Nc... Heat advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for ncz087-096-099-
105>110.

Marine... None.

Near term... Sgl
short term... Jdw
long term... mbb
aviation... Sgl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 0 mi47 min SE 9.9 G 11 83°F 85°F1015.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi48 min 84°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi69 min SE 7.8 G 12 84°F 84°F1016.5 hPa
WLON7 9 mi47 min 81°F 83°F1016.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi69 min SE 7.8 G 12 85°F 85°F1016.5 hPa
41108 36 mi47 min 85°F2 ft
41064 45 mi69 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 83°F 84°F1017.1 hPa
SSBN7 45 mi137 min 1 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 45 mi69 min S 5.8 G 7.8 85°F 86°F1016.4 hPa
41159 45 mi34 min 84°F2 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC8 mi24 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds80°F78°F94%1016.6 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC24 mi42 minSE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F81°F90%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8E7SE4SE6SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6SE6SE7SE8SE8E7Calm
1 day agoS8S11S6S6SW10SW5CalmCalmSW4S3CalmCalmS3CalmN5NW3NW5N6N7N5NW3N444
2 days agoSE86S4S7S7S4CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmS3W5CalmCalmE6SE5SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:39 AM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:58 AM EDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:26 PM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:52 PM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.92.83.33.432.31.40.4-0.3-0.6-0.30.61.833.94.44.43.82.91.80.7-0.1-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:41 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:56 AM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:44 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:38 PM EDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.41.22.53.544.23.93.12.11.30.60.1-0.10.62.13.54.34.84.84.43.72.82

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.