Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wrightsville Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:05PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 5:19 AM EST (10:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:21AMMoonset 7:45PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 437 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Today..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 437 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A coastal trough just off the carolina coasts and an approaching cold front from the northwest will combine to produce light pcpn late this afternoon thru tonight. High pressure will follow and slowly build in from the west Wednesday thru Friday. At the same time, low pressure will pass just south and east of the area Wed night thru Thu with stratiform rains and embedded heavier showers possible along with sca conditions possible. A strong cold front will approach from the west during Sat and will sweep across the local waters to well offshore by late Sat night. Strong, dry and cold canadian high pressure will follow Sunday thru early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrightsville Beach, NC
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location: 34.21, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 210918
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
418 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
A coastal trough just off the carolina coasts and an approaching
cold front from the northwest will combine to produce light
pcpn late this afternoon thru tonight... With the coastal areas
seeing the best shot of seeing measurable rainfall. High
pressure will follow and slowly build in from the west Wednesday
thru Friday. At the same time, low pressure will pass just
south and east of the area Wed night thru Thu with the immediate
coast again seeing the best chance for rainfall. A strong cold
front will approach from the west during Sat and will sweep
across the forecast area and off the coast to well offshore by
late Sat night. Strong, dry and cold canadian high pressure will
follow Sunday thru early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Tuesday... Yet another cold night ongoing across
the area, but with the growing season ended in most of the cwa,
no frost freeze products are in effect or needed. Temps will
continue to fall slowly overnight, but should level off in the
few hours before dawn as high level cloudiness increases from
the sw.

Big story today will be the development of a coastal trough
currently beginning to sharpen offshore. This is noted by a
weakness in the pressure field, as well as slowly increasing
low mid level cloudiness advecting NW just offshore. This 12
utc guidance has jogged eastward. I did trend the forecast in
feature will strengthen and try to advect westward as the
surface high across eastern nc retreats to the east, but will
likely remain just offshore through tonight. As this coastal
trough sharpens, SW flow aloft will increase and pieces of
vorticity energy will lift overhead downstream of a trough
digging through the ms vly. This causes slowly increasing
isentropic lift, as well spawning a weak area of low pressure
which will move NE offshore tonight. The NAM is an outlier being
aggressive with saturation and rainfall today, while there is
good agreement between much of the other guidance. It takes a
long time for the mid-levels to saturate, but do expect light
rain showers to develop from SW to NE this evening and tonight,
with the heaviest rain likely along the immediate coast. Qpf
should be light, but over a tenth of an inch is possible across
the grand strand and into CAPE fear. As the surface low pulls
away tonight, a cold front will cross the carolinas to be
offshore by Wednesday morning, causing rapid drying and bringing
an end to any rainfall chances.

Highs today will climb well into the 60s, but have forecast
slightly below MOS numbers to account for cloud cover and
onshore flow off cool ocean waters. Despite the FROPA overnight,
cold advection is weak and lags, so much warmer mins are
forecast for tonight, 12 utc guidance has jogged eastward. I did
trend the forecast infalling only into the upper 40s NW of
i-95, low 50s near the coast.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 330 am Tuesday... First thing Wednesday morning, weak low
pressure accelerating ene, will be pulling away from the fa
taking any patchy pcpn and cloudiness with it. A coastal trof
along the immediate coast, will get pulled back over the atl
waters during the morning. A cold front will drop from the nw,
and sweep across the fa by midday and off carolina coasts before
stalling offshore and parallel to the coastline Wed night.

Will observe partial clearing during Wed aftn and evening as
weak CAA occurs via partial thicknesses schemes ie. 1000-850mb
along with 850mb temps dropping. MAX temps will run in the mid
60s slightly cooler than MOS guidance but normal for this time
of the year. Min temps Wed night will also run about normal with
lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

For Thu thru Thu night, models are defying unity with respect to
the final wx outcome of this time period. This is in reference
to a northern stream 5h S W trof that drops to the SE states
during Thu and progresses eastward Thu night. Sfc low pressure
will develop along the stalled front offshore from sc late thu
and accelerates to the ene Thu night, pulling away from the ilm
cwa. The european and to a degree the NAM are both drier than
the GFS fcst. This likely due to a less amplified or a flatter 5h
s W trof when both compared to the gfs. Will stay closer 12
utc guidance has jogged eastward. I did trend the forecast into a
dry bias, where the sfc low with best pops and QPF staying off
the ilm CWA coast. Will still exhibit low chance pops, mainly
well east of the i-95 corridor to the immediate coast. By
daybreak fri, any pcpn and cloudiness across the fa will be
accelerating off to the ene, away from the fa. For MAX temps
thu, will see widespread 50s via european MOS due to clouds and
low chance pcpn. On a side note, the wetter GFS mos guidance
indicates upper 40s for Thu highs well inland, ie. Along and
west of the i-95 corridor. Friday morning lows will exhibit
climo norms, with upper 30s to near 40 covering it.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 245 pm Monday... The extended forecast will be mostly
influenced by an almost standing wave trough across the eastern
third of the conus. Ridging will remain focused across the four
corners region. There remains some indication of a couple of
systems moving across the baroclinic zone to the east but the
12 utc guidance has jogged eastward. I did trend the forecast
in the early periods a little drier so its essentially a dry
forecast throughout. Overall temperatures will run a little
below normal starting out on the cooler side of climatology
with a brief warmup for the weekend. This will be followed by
another cold shot early next week.

Aviation 08z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 06z... A coastal trough developing just offshore will
create increasing low clouds today, while CIGS develop at
cirrus level. At the same time, high pressure will retreat away
from the mid-atlantic ahead of a cold front which will be just
west of the terminals at the end of the valid period. This
results inVFR, with increasing cloud cover and a cig developing
at 3-4 kft this aftn through tonight. Showers will begin to
overspread the terminals from south to north this eve and
tonight as well, but there is low confidence in exact timing and
intensity, so have carried vcsh all terminals late. Winds will
be E SE at the coast, E NE inland, with speeds 10 kts or less.

Extended outlook... MVFR conditions may develop in low clouds
and light rain early Wednesday morning,.VFR Thursday. MVFR to
ifr conditions are possible late Friday into Saturday in low
clouds and rain.

12
utc guidance has jogged eastward. I did trend the forecast in

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Tuesday... Light E NE winds this morning will
gradually transition to E SE as a coastal trough sharpens and
tries to lift NW towards the coast. Do not expect this feature
to make it onshore, but it will cause the subtle wind direction
change through this evening. The gradient will remain weak, so
wind speeds will be around 10 kts regardless of direction.

Tonight, a wave of low pressure offshore will pull the trough
back to the east with winds becoming sw, followed by the rapid
passage of a cold front by Wednesday morning shifting winds to
the nw. The strongest winds are expected post-fropa, reaching
10-15 kts at that time. Despite these light winds, seas will
gradually rise through tonight as a SE swell around the offshore
high pressure begins to amplify. Seas this morning are just 1-2
ft, and although the wind will do little to increase the seas,
an 7-8 sec SE swell will grow to 4-5 ft, pushing wave heights to
3-4 ft tonight.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night ...

as of 330 am Tuesday... Wednesday will be highlighted with caa
under northerly winds in the morning veering to the NE in the
aftn and night. Wind speeds will run 10 to 20 kt Wed into wed
night as CAA and a tightened sfc pg contribute to the winds.

With significant seas building to 3 to possibly as high as 6 ft
during Wed night into thu. Majority of the seas will come from
short period, 5 to 6 second wind waves. For Thu thru Thu night,
depending where the sfc low develops and intensifies relative to
the ilm coastal waters, will determine both winds and locally
produced seas. GFS again wants to intensify a low that is just
short of a gale late thu. Will follow this trend but keep the
low further offshore along with the best sfc pg. Will definitely
see scec and possible SCA conditions Thu into Thu night and will
highlight in the hazardous wx outlook. Sig. Seas will hold in
the 3 to 6 ft range Thu into Thu night with a few 7 footers
possible.

Long term Friday through Saturday ...

as of 245 pm Monday... Northeast winds of 10-15 knots will
prevail through the first two days of the extended marine
forecast. There may be a few hours of 15-20 early on but overall
10-15 should do it. By Saturday a modest southwest flow will
develop ahead of another cold front which should move across
later in the weekend. Significant seas will trend downward from
3-5 feet early to 2-4 and possibly 1-3 feet by Saturday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Jdw
short term... Dch
long term... Shk
aviation... Jdw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 0 mi49 min NNW 8 G 9.9 46°F 62°F1023.3 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 5 mi94 min NW 1 42°F 1022 hPa40°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi50 min 64°F1 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi71 min N 5.8 G 9.7 58°F 64°F1023.1 hPa
WLON7 9 mi49 min 40°F 59°F1023.1 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi71 min NE 5.8 G 9.7 63°F 68°F1022.8 hPa
41108 36 mi49 min 62°F1 ft
41064 45 mi71 min ENE 5.8 G 9.7 61°F 67°F1023.4 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 45 mi71 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 61°F1022.7 hPa
41159 45 mi49 min 67°F2 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW7
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NE1
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G14
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G29
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G32
SW24
G31

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC8 mi26 minNNE 310.00 miFair37°F35°F93%1023.8 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC24 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair42°F39°F90%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN7N7N8NW7N7N5CalmN3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3
1 day agoSW21
G29
SW12SW11W19
G28
NW17
G23
NW12
G21
NW15NW12
G21
NW14NW16
G22
NW13
G21
NW10NW7NW4NW3NW6NW6N6N3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmE3CalmSE3S6S5S7S11S12S13S8S7S8SW7SW8SW11SW15
G21
SW12SW13
G25
SW18
G23
SW15
G24
SW14
G24
SW19
G33
SW17
G31

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
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Tue -- 02:32 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:42 AM EST     3.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:16 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:45 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:02 PM EST     2.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.50.10.10.51.42.43.33.83.93.62.92.11.20.40.10.20.71.52.22.832.82.4

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:20 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:18 AM EST     4.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:04 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:30 PM EST     3.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.72.921.20.60.30.41.32.73.84.34.54.53.932.11.30.70.40.71.833.63.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.