Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wrightsville Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:35PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 5:27 AM EDT (09:27 UTC) Moonrise 1:54PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 342 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Thursday evening...
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N early this afternoon, then diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Isolated tstms this morning. A chance of showers.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Fri..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 342 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will move across the waters by midday with a chance of post frontal showers into early this evening. Modest high pressure will build over the waters late tonight thru Friday. A strong cold front will sweep across the area late Saturday, followed by cool and dry canadian high pressure Sunday thru early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrightsville Beach, NC
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location: 34.21, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 170914
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
514 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Synopsis
An east to west oriented cold front stalled across north
carolina early this morning will slowly drop south of the
forecast area late today or early this evening. Modest high
pressure will follow and build in from the northwest bringing
cooler weather Thu thru fri. A brief warming trend is expected
early this weekend, followed by the passage of a stronger cold
front Sat night. Colder and drier air will again follow as
canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest Sun thru
early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 345 am Wednesday... Impressive and relentless activity
ahead of the front finally appears to be winding down. There
should be a respite and less coverage although there will be an
increase once again mainly northeast zones later this morning as
the front moves across. From that point on its a forecast of
clearing from west to east with much cooler air moving in.

Maintained the highs today from the upper 70s north to lower 80s
south. Lows tonight, held somewhat in check by an increasing
gradient, will be in the 50-55 degree range.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 345 am Wednesday... Progressive flow sfc and aloft this
period. At the start, a 1035+ mb sfc high centered over the
mid-mississippi valley, will already extend it's ridging ese,
across the local area. The center of the high is progged to
reach the mid-atlantic coast at daybreak fri. Low mean rhs with
nw flow thru the atm column spells a clear or mostly clear
fcst. During the 24 hr period ending Fri morning, excellent caa
under breezy N to NE winds will become neutral Thu night with
winds diminishing to less than 5 mph. Highs Thu mid to upper
60s, which is actually 1 to 2 categories below normal. That's a
welcome change for once. If winds decouple Thu night, excellent
radiational cooling could set-up with the potential for lows fri
morning dropping to around 40 except mid 40s along the
immediate coast due to the influence of mid to upper 70s ssts
next door. The nam MOS guidance paints mid 30s for possible lows
fri morning. Will stay on the milder side but if sfc dewpoints
bottom out in the 30s then we may have to re-examine fri
morning's potential lower mins. Friday will see the peak
influence from sfc high pressure and low amplitude ridging
aloft, with both features pushing off the east coast by sunset
fri. Return flow in the low levels late Fri into Fri night could
see sc or CU development that will get absorbed into a cold
front that will be knocking on our front door Sat morning. Have
indicated pops increasing to low chance for showers mainly after
midnight and along the northern periphery of the ilm CWA from
darlington to bladen counties. MAX min temps will rebound
quickly with near normal highs and Sat lows 1 to 2 categories
above normal.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... High pressure shifts off the coast on
fri allowing for a return in warmer and moister air, increasing
late Fri into Sat ahead of a cold front. Cooler temps to start
on Fri will warm into the 70s with higher dewpoint air and
clouds helping to keep overnight lows Fri night a good 10
degrees warmer than previous night.

Clouds should begin to increase late Fri with increasing chc of
pcp heading into sat. Mid to upper trough will dig south from
the great lakes on Sat pushing a strong cold front through the
carolinas. Expect potential for higher end QPF in showers and
thunderstorms on Sat aftn. Temps will be modified by clouds and
pcp but WAA ahead of the front will keep temps in the mid to
upper 70s most places.

Dry and cool high pressure will build down behind the front on
Sunday with some of the coolest temps of the season with temps
in the mid 60s for high temps on Sun and Mon and overnight low
temps dropping down near 40 many places inland. Expect plenty of
sunshine Sun aftn through Monday. By tues, the air mass will
modify slightly as high shifts off the coast and possible
coastal trough develops with models indicating possible clouds
and pcp affecting the coast.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 06z... Challenging period for aviation concerns this
morning as a long advertised cold front is hung up to the west
waiting for a secondary push which resides in the mountains.

Seemingly relentless prefrontal convection continues to move
through the area but should diminish in time. Ifr conditions
have developed in the weak pressure gradient inland aided by
said convection. These conditions will persist through the
morning hours and spread somewhat to the coast. Probably more
MVFR than ifr at the coast however.

Extended outlook... PredominatelyVFR through Friday. Moderate
confidence for showers and MVFR ifr conditions Saturday associated
with a cold front. Improving conditions Sunday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 345 am Wednesday... The modest southwest flow across the
waters will come to an end as a cold front to the west moves
across. As would be expected, not the most dramatic cold frontal
passage this time of year with winds becoming north by late
morning around ten knots or so. More of a push later tonight as
speeds increase to a healthy 20- 25 knots. Will go ahead and
raise a small craft advisory for the winds and subsequently the
increasing seas.

Short term Thursday through Friday night ...

as of 415 am Wednesday... SCA conditions will be ongoing at the
start of this period with N to NE winds beginning to abate thu
aftn and night as the sfc pg relaxes and the CAA becomes
neutral. This a result of the center of high pressure nearly
overhead come early fri. Winds will veer Fri to easterly
direction and further veer to the SE to SW Fri night as return
flow around the sfc high having set up. Significant seas will be
at their peak and ongoing at the start of this period, in the 3
to 6 foot range. Wind driven waves at 5 to 6 seconds will
dominate the sig. Seas Thu into Thu night. A 9 second period ese
ground swell will eventually become the dominate input to sig.

Seas as wind driven waves subside.

Long term Saturday through Sunday ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... High pressure will shift off the coast
fri into Sat as a cold front approaches from the nw. With center
of high remaining north, winds will veer around to the E fri
aftn and then SE to S Fri night into sat. By Sat aftn a decent
southerly push, with increasing s-sw winds, ahead of cold front
will drive seas up from 2 to 3 ft Fri aftn to 3 to 4 ft, with
some 5 fters possible Sat aftn.

Canadian high pressure will build down behind the cold front
sat night into Sun with a decent northerly surge up to 15 to 20
kts Sat night. This should keep seas in the 3 to 4 ft range for
most waters with some 5 fters possible in outer waters.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 8 pm edt
Thursday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Shk
short term... Dch
long term... Rgz
aviation... Shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 0 mi40 min W 5.1 G 8.9 78°F 80°F1017.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi58 min 78°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi80 min W 14 G 18 79°F 79°F1017.5 hPa
WLON7 9 mi40 min 76°F 75°F1017.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi80 min WSW 18 G 21 80°F 80°F1017.6 hPa
41108 36 mi58 min 80°F3 ft
41064 45 mi80 min W 18 G 21 80°F 80°F1017.4 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 45 mi80 min WNW 16 G 19 76°F 79°F1016.7 hPa
41159 45 mi58 min 80°F4 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC8 mi35 minWSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds75°F72°F90%1017.5 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC24 mi43 minW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F73°F93%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmW3W10W9NW10W8W9NW8NW3W5SE6S10W3S4SW5S4SW3--S6SW7W6W8
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S6S7S10
G14
S8S7S7S9S8S6S4S3S4S4SW5S3S3S4S4S4
2 days agoNE6NE5NE4NE10NE7E8E10E8E12E10
G16
NE12E9E4NE6NE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmS5

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:19 AM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:36 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:45 PM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:32 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.52.82.82.41.91.30.90.60.50.81.42.12.83.33.43.22.721.40.80.50.50.8

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
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Wed -- 12:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:40 AM EDT     3.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:57 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:13 PM EDT     4.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:48 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.122.83.43.83.93.42.51.71.20.70.60.91.82.83.64.14.34.23.52.71.91.30.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.