Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wrightsville Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:03PM Saturday February 23, 2019 8:00 PM EST (01:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:46PMMoonset 9:37AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 253 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of rain with patchy drizzle early this morning, then a slight chance of rain late this morning.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of rain after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft in the evening, then 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
AMZ200 253 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure to the north will shift off the coast overnight, lifting a warm across the waters. Southerly winds will increase late tonight and Sunday ahead of a cold front that will cross the coast Sunday evening. High pressure will build over the waters from the northwest through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrightsville Beach, NC
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location: 34.21, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 232246
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
545 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure to the north will shift off the coast overnight,
lifting a warm front across the waters. Southerly winds increase
late tonight and Sunday ahead of a cold front that crosses the
area Sunday evening. High pressure will then build over the
region from the northwest through Wednesday with chances of rain
increasing late Wednesday into Friday.

Near term through Sunday night
As of 3 pm Saturday... Front stalled south of the area will lift
north through the evening and overnight as surface high to the north
shifts off the coast. Front is not expected to have much, if any,
rainfall with it as it lifts north. Increasing southerly flow in the
wake of the exiting front will lead to slowly rising temps
overnight. Lows will end up well above climo with many areas likely
to experience Sat highs and Sat night lows at the same time. Precip
chances overnight are less certain. There is an abundance of low-
level moisture, although this is relatively shallow. Almost no lift
or forcing will be present and forecast soundings continue to show
at least some mid-level subsidence holding on. High resolution short
term guidance had been showing some weak convergence moving into the
area overnight, but has backed off on the strength of this. The
signal looked a lot like feedback issues from convection in this
morning runs and weakening of the activity in further runs is not
unexpected. Plan to maintain slight chance pop overnight. Better
rain chances will be on Sun as the cold front crosses the area.

Strong warm advection overnight will likely result in fog developing
across much of the area.

Cold front moving across the area Sun will be moving into a
warm moist airmass. Forecast soundings suggest CAPE could be in 500-
600 j kg range for a period, right ahead of the front. This is also
where precipitable water jumps to around 1.6 inches. Although the
parent low moves through the great lakes, keeping the dynamics well
north of the area, strong convergence along the front and the
aforementioned instability should lead to a line of broken
convection. Less confident in prospects for thunder with the line.

There is mid-level dry air (even during the times of highest deeper
moisture) and lapse rates in the charge separation zone are very
weak. There may not be enough upward motion to generate sufficient
charge separation. At this point do not have thunder in the
forecast, but cannot rule out an isolated rumble. Strong warm
advection ahead of the front will lead to temperatures well above
climo, with highs likely occurring around midday for western
portions of the forecast area.

High pressure builds in behind the rapidly exiting front late sun
into Sun evening. Strong deep west-northwest flow helps dry out the
region Sun night into Mon but does not really produce any strong
cold advection. Temps drop Sun night, but only a small portion of
the drop is due to cold advection with the bulk of the cold air
trapped well north of the area.

Short term Monday through Monday night
As of 330 pm Saturday... Dry weather for the short term period
as surface high pressure builds in from the northwest. With very
little moisture in the zonal flow aloft, expect a mainly
sunny clear sky. Temps will be close to normal for late
february... Highs Monday in the low 60s, with lows Monday night
35-40.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 330 pm Saturday... Continued dry to start off the long
term period with surface high pressure sliding offshore. There
will be a general trend towards increasing chances of rain late
in the week as moisture increases, however a strong high to the
n NE (e.G. 12z ecmwf) could delay precip chances. Capped pops at
30% for now with a lot of uncertainty over the timing of
precip. Temps will continue near normal... Highs in the upr 50s
to mid 60s each day.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
As of 00z... .A scenario is setting up where dense fog is in play.

Warm air advection just off the deck will keep temps near steady,
perhaps warming after midnight. Dewpoints will rise as well, with
some possible vlifr fog possible after 04z.

Toward morning, southerly flow will increase as a warm front rides
north of the cwa. At some point the winds will be strong enough to
mix out the fog, probably after daybreak. Look for gusty southwest
winds with some light scattered convection possible by mid morning.

Extended outlook...VFR late Sunday through early Wednesday. Possible
sub-vfr late Wednesday and Thursday.

Marine
As of 3 pm Saturday... Easterly winds this evening will become
southerly overnight as front lifts north of the waters. South to
southwest flow in the wake of the front will start to increase late
tonight and Sun as the gradient tightens ahead of an approaching
cold front. Ahead of the front winds will be 20 to 25 kt, building
seas to 5 to 7 ft as early as midday sun. Both winds and seas are
likely to warrant small craft advisory continuing through at least
sun night with flow in the wake of the front becoming offshore.

Speeds will remain 20 to 25 kt Sun night while the offshore
trajectory helps drop seas from 4 to 6 ft in the evening to 2 to 4
ft by Mon morning.

Sub-small craft advisory conditions early to mid next week with
high pressure over the waters. Winds mainly under 10 kt with 1-2
ft seas, before some increase into Wednesday... 10-15 kt NE winds
with 2-3 ft seas.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Sunday to 7 am est Monday for
amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Mas
near term... Iii
short term... Mas
long term... Mas
aviation... 43
marine... Iii mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 0 mi30 min NW 8 G 11 52°F 54°F1020.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi30 min 54°F4 ft
WLON7 9 mi30 min 50°F 51°F1020.3 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi52 min NNE 5.8 G 9.7 57°F 64°F1019 hPa
41108 36 mi30 min 54°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 45 mi52 min NNW 7.8 G 12 51°F 55°F1020.1 hPa
41064 45 mi52 min NNW 7.8 G 12 61°F 66°F1018.4 hPa
41159 45 mi30 min 65°F6 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC8 mi67 minWNW 81.00 miFog/Mist51°F48°F92%1020.4 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC24 mi80 minNNW 37.00 miOvercast55°F52°F92%1020 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11NE11N12NE12N12NE10N8NE9NE10NE6NE6N5N7N7N8N6N64NE5NE3NW5NW4NW8NW9
1 day agoCalmS4CalmCalmN3S3E4NE7NE6NE8NE9NE7NE8NE9NE14NE14NE12NE12
G17
NE10NE12NE12N10NE8NE10
2 days agoNW6NW4NW4NW5CalmSW3S6NW4NW3NW4CalmSE3S3SW6SW9SW11W13W10SW10W8NW7SW6SW5S3

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
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Sat -- 04:02 AM EST     -0.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:36 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:17 AM EST     4.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:21 PM EST     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:50 PM EST     4.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.11.90.6-0.4-0.8-0.50.41.62.83.74.143.32.20.9-0.2-0.7-0.60.11.22.43.44.24.4

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:23 AM EST     4.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:08 AM EST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:36 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:43 PM EST     4.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:32 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.74.6432.11.10.2-0.401.32.73.84.34.443.22.31.50.6-0.1-0.10.82.23.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.