Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wrightsville Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:05PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 4:16 PM EST (21:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:21AMMoonset 7:45PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 334 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Tonight..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft, then 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 334 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A coastal trough will linger near the waters this evening as a wave of low pressure moves up the coast. A cold front will sweep offshore later tonight followed by high pressure on Wednesday. Another area of low pressure will move up the coast and in the vicinity Thursday and Friday. High pressure will return for the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrightsville Beach, NC
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location: 34.21, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 211930
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
230 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
A coastal wave will move northward overnight, bringing a chance
of showers. A cold front will press south over the carolinas on
Wednesday. A few coastal showers are possible thanksgiving day,
as a low pressure wave passes offshore. Seasonably cool and dry
conditions will prevail into the weekend and early next week,
as a series cold fronts sweep off the coast, and low pressure
areas remain offshore. Strong canadian high pressure will pass
across the area early next week.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 230 pm Tuesday... Coastal trough sitting offshore will
attempt to move onshore this evening and confidence is low on
whether or not this will happen. Should it move onshore the most
noticeable difference would be increased rainfall rates within
showers east of the trough as opposed to lighter rain on the
west side. In the grand scheme of things the increase in
rainfall would not be significant, a couple tenths of an inch at
most as opposed to around a tenth of an inch. Temperatures
would also briefly spike up as the trough moves onshore.

Regardless of where the trough ends up this evening it will be
lifted north and then pushed east later tonight. A shortwave
rounding the base of the high amplitude 5h trough over the eastern
conus will move northeast just off the southeast coast. Surface
wave low associated with the wave will lift northeast along the
coastal trough, helping move the feature out of the region. Light
rain will spread over the area this evening as isentropic lift on
the 295k surface increases and deeper moisture arrives. Precipitable
water increases from half an inch around midday to around 1.3 inches
overnight which should allow for measurable rainfall across much of
the area. Rainfall amounts and coverage will be highest closer to
the coast. Isentropic lift starts to wind down around midnight with
any rainfall expected to come to an end shortly thereafter. Westerly
flow below 7k ft as the surface and mid-level wave exit help dry the
region out during the second half of the overnight period. Lack of
any significant cold advection, combined with lingering cloud cover
and mixing helps to keep lows above climo.

Cold front trailing northern stream low moving into eastern canada
late tonight moves across the area wed. The front is starved of
moisture by the time it reaches the area and it will pass dry while
helping to clear out any lingering clouds. Some modest cold
advection behind the front but the air arrives too late to have any
real impact on highs, which will end up a couple degrees above
climo. Winds will become breezy following the passage of the front
in the afternoon, especially as sunshine increases and stronger
winds aloft start mixing to the surface.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
As of 230 pm Tuesday... H5 ridge across the desert SW and a
trough will be positioned across the eastern u.S. Through the
short term period. At the surface, high pressure will prevail as
it builds across the carolinas, possibly supplanting the areas
of low pressure far enough offshore to limit rainfall chances
during thanksgiving. Isentropic lift is shown to be lacking as
well. Currently, we will maintain the highest pops across the
coastal zones during thanksgiving and keep QPF low unless the
low can evolve farther west. Maintained a blend of met mav
temperatures through the period.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 230 pm Tuesday... A progressive yet overall dry extended
forecast prevails with seasonably cool temperatures, and dry
largely in part, because the atmosphere remains dry above 8000
feet. A moderately strong cold front Saturday night may bring a
few clouds but column moisture appears too scarce for rain. The
dynamics aloft will be running strong, so a brief shower over
se nc cannot be ruled out but no QPF expectations at this time.

Sunday should bring brisk north wind, as high pressure builds
from the west. The core of the high, and clear skies will team
up overhead daybreak on Monday, and may greet some inland areas
with sub-freezing air.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 18z... Mainly jet cirrus today. A developing low pressure
system near florida will track up the eastern seaboard this
evening, bringing a chance for rain mainly at the coastal
terminals. After the low passes to the northeast, winds will
swing around to northwest, with a brief period of ifr
ceilings vis expected. Conditions should improve after daybreak
on Wednesday.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions expected by Wednesday afternoon.

Vfr Thursday. Low confidence for MVFR to ifr conditions near the
coast late Thursday through Friday night in low clouds and rain.

Marine
Near term through Wednesday ...

as of 230 pm Tuesday... Coastal trough continues to linger in
the region with light southeast winds over the eastern waters
and northeast along the coast. The trough will try to move
onshore, and may briefly do so this evening. This would result
in east to southeast winds across all of the waters but the weak
gradient will keep speeds 10 kt or less. Surface wave moves
northeast along the trough tonight, with winds backing to
southwest and then west as night turns into day. Offshore flow
following the wave trough is not particularly strong, 10 to 15
kt, but a dry cold front will cross the waters late in the day.

This feature is likely to be followed by a stronger surge of
cold air, albeit after the end of the period. Seas will steadily
build through the period with 2 to 3 ft this afternoon
increasing to 2 to 4 ft this evening. Seas continue to build as
the wave approaches and then, with the switch to southwest and
then west, keep increasing, peaking at 3 to 5 ft during wed.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night ...

as of 230 pm Tuesday... High pressure building across the waters
from the north Wednesday night will maintain a northeasterly
fetch and choppy seas. During Thursday, the area of high
pressure will likely suppress areas of low pressure farther off
the southeast u.S. Coast. This pattern will shift the stronger
pressure gradient offshore by Thursday night allowing winds to
gradually diminish across the coastal waters. At this time think
seas will remain just below small craft thresholds across the
outer waters but will need to monitor.

Long term Friday through Sunday ...

as of 230 pm Tuesday... An easing trend in NE winds Friday will
begin to back to the NW and increase on Saturday as deepening
low pressure passes well offshore. The low will pull well away
to the NE Sunday, with moderate n-nnw winds as high pressure
builds from the west. An exercise caution period is possible
Sunday for N wind, and elevated seas offshore. No 0-20 nm tstms
this period but a few showers possible late Sat early Sun as a
cold front moves through.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Iii
short term... Srp
long term... Mjc
aviation... Dl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 0 mi47 min NE 9.9 G 13 62°F 63°F1019.4 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 5 mi92 min ENE 8 63°F 1019 hPa56°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi48 min 64°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi69 min ENE 9.7 G 14 63°F 64°F1019.3 hPa
WLON7 9 mi47 min 67°F 59°F1019 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi69 min SSE 12 G 19 70°F 68°F1018.8 hPa
41108 36 mi47 min 62°F3 ft
41064 45 mi69 min SE 5.8 G 9.7 69°F 67°F1019.7 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 45 mi69 min E 3.9 G 5.8 64°F 61°F1018.8 hPa
41159 45 mi47 min 67°F3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC8 mi24 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F54°F68%1019.6 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC24 mi32 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F57°F79%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmNE3NE5NE5NE4E6E8E7E6E5
1 day agoNW10NW7NW4NW3NW6NW6N6N3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN7N7N8NW7N7N5CalmN3
2 days agoS7S8SW7SW8SW11SW15
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G21

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
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Tue -- 02:32 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:42 AM EST     3.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:16 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:45 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:02 PM EST     2.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.50.10.10.51.42.43.33.83.93.62.92.11.20.40.10.20.71.52.22.832.82.4

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:20 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:18 AM EST     4.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:04 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:30 PM EST     3.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.72.921.20.60.30.41.32.73.84.34.54.53.932.11.30.70.40.71.833.63.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.