Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wrightsville Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:27PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 11:48 AM EDT (15:48 UTC) Moonrise 11:23AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1045 Am Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
This afternoon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day.
Sat..E winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1045 Am Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. The bermuda high will linger off the coast through the week. A cold front will move into the area from the north Thursday night. The front will lift north as a warm front Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrightsville Beach, NC
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location: 34.21, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 191408
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1008 am edt Tue jun 19 2018

Synopsis
Dangerous afternoon heat will prevail today and Wednesday, as
a strong upper ridge migrates eastward into the area. A break
from the intense heat will arrive late week, as a frontal
boundary moves toward the coast, bringing a good chance showers
and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. The front is
expected to stall near or just south of the area through early
next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 10 am Tuesday... Goes-e low-level water vapor animations
trace out in fine detail the mammoth-like upper ridge amplified
over most of the gulf states into the carolinas. This beast,
coupled with adiabatic compression from the westerly component
of low level wind, and absolute humidity, will bring treacherous
heat to the area today.

Soaring sbcapes and precipitable water values, combating poor
mid-level lapse-rates and weak column shear today. The robust
zone of low-level convergence just inland from the coast today
may focus or initiate a TSTM late today, this appears most
favored over very SE nc, mainly pender and new hanover
counties, where slightly high lrs reside. Storm motion
perpendicular to sea breeze front orientation should maximize
convergence here, and any CB towers tapping into injections of
dcape could lay down strong gusts. Yesterdays high sbcape, pwat,
and dcape led to an elevated albeit isolated microburst
potential, and today similar, though updrafts are facing more
unwelcoming buoyancy aloft and most likely, a broad subsident
layer above 20 kft, subsidence could win out entirely and snuff
out tstms today. Areas from surf city to burgaw, to leland to
carolina beach between 5pm and 7 pm, is the space and time of
concern.

As of 400 am Tuesday... Heat advisory hoisted for the entire
area for the first time since last august.

Bulging upper ridge will stay centered just west of the area
today, but increasing thicknesses, warming 850mb temps, and
w NW downslope flow will roast the eastern carolinas this aftn.

Guidance converging on the hottest day since last august, and
with little cloud cover forecast to inhibit solar insolation,
conditions look near perfect for near-record temperatures today.

850mb temps soar towards +22c by this evening, with the W nw
flow aloft advecting this airmass into the region and
compressionally warming it during the aftn. Records today are
101 at florence, 100 at lumberton, and 98 at wilmington, and the
current forecast is for highs very close to these values.

Wilmington actually has the best chance to break this record
thanks to the more prolonged downslope flow in this type of
setup.

Not only will temperatures soar, but dewpoint values will be
oppressive in the low 70s, thankfully mixing down into the
upper 60s well inland during peak heating. Despite the subtly
drier dewpoint temperatures, the combination of highs of 95-100
and dewpoints around 70 will produce heat index values of
105-108 degrees today. This has prompted the issuance of a heat
advisory for all zones, even along the immediate coast where the
sea breeze advection of higher dewpoint air will offset
slightly cooler temperatures.

With thicknesses climbing and dry air aloft on the W NW flow,
convection will struggle today despite MLCAPE values approaching
4000 j kg. Most high res guidance does develop isolated showers
and tstms this aftn, but with 500mb temps warming to near -4c
expect a convective lid everywhere but the piedmont trough, and
even there storms will be isolated at worst. Have carried a thin
stripe of schc pop across far northern tier zones where
piedmont trough activity may advect SE this evening, but this
will be the exception rather than the rule, and activity will
wane quickly with loss of heating. A clear night will do little
to help radiational cooling as SW surface winds persist, and
mins are forecast to drop only into the upper 70s to near 80,
warmest along the coast.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 400 am Tuesday... The heat wave will highlight and continue
thru this period along with some temporary relief coming in the
form of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.

For Wednesday, will only see isolated coverage of the pcpn as
warm temps aloft along with decent subsidence limiting any
vertical development of the day's cu. Various model mos
guidance indicates Wed will be the hotter of the 2 days with 100
degree readings possible inland. Even the immediate coast and
beaches could see mid 90s before the sea breeze develops but
only pushes slightly inland. This due to westerly downslope
winds aloft keeping the sea breeze pinned. For wed, sfc
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s in the vicinity of the sea
breeze could push heat index values up to and over 110 degrees
for an hour or 2. At this point the heat advisory will be a slam
dunk for Wed and again thu. Will need to look closer for a
possible excessive heat warning during Wed which requires 2
hours or more of heat indices greater than or equal to 110
degrees.

For thu, the upper ridge begins to deflate-some with subsidence
not as strong. At the sfc, the piedmont trof across the central
carolinas will push slightly closer to the coast. And an active
but mainly pinned sea breeze will again occur. All 3 of these wx
features will combine to allow more widespread convection to
develop Thu aftn and should persist well into Thu evening and
possibly the overnight period. Plenty of fuel ie. CAPE for
thunderstorm development with pulse type tstorms expected.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 300 pm Monday... The mid level pattern will become more
progressive in time as initially a mid level low moves across
the ohio valley. The small amplified ridge ahead of this system
will push a backdoor front into the area at least briefly Friday
before retreating well to the north over the weekend. Still
good pops for Thursday via a possible MCS and then forcing later
with the front. Guidance has dried out the mid levels somewhat
for the weekend into early next week and have overall jogged
down pops for these later periods. Temperatures will be a little
above climatology throughout the period but not exceedingly so.

Aviation 13z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 12z... Summer is here with a vengeance with heat indices well
over 100 today. Even with the intense heat, only isolated convection
is expected. If we do manage to get any convection, gusty winds are
possible. Westerly flow this morning will become southerly this
afternoon. Light winds tonight with little or no fog expected.

Extended outlook...VFR with possible short duration MVFR fog or
ifr CIGS inland terminals early each morning. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms possible wed, becoming scattered thu-sat.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 10 am Tuesday... No significant changes needed to the
marine forecast, do expect locally higher gusts in shore, and
perhaps erratic in direction later in the day if the sea breeze
is pushed to the waters, or if tstms impact inner waters north
of CAPE fear between 5 pm and 8 pm, which is possible. 4-6
second wave periods with wave direction SW offshore and mainly
s inshore.

As of 300 am Tuesday... Gusty SW winds of 15-20 kts will persist
nearly the entire near term as the gradient pinches between
offshore high pressure and a sharp piedmont trough. The
overnight SCA has been dropped due to conditions not reaching
criteria, with latest buoy obs showing just 10-15 kts and 2-4
ft. Do expect winds to increase into the morning to the
aforementioned 15-20 kts, but remain below SCA thresholds. The
highest winds today will again occur within the locally back
near-shore sea breeze, where gusts to 25 kts are possible this
aftn. Seas through the period will be 3-4 ft with isolated 5
fters possible at times, mostly across amz250 and amz252.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night ...

as of 400 am Tuesday... No short term SCA or scec expected.

Broad and modest ridging aloft to dominate. At the sfc, center
of high pressure offshore from the southeast u.S. Coast, will
ridge NW to the carolina coasts respectively. At the same time,
the piedmont trof will extend across the central carolinas. The
sfc pressure pattern and gradient will yield SW winds 10 to 15
kt with occasional gusts to 20+ kt. The gustiness to the winds
will occur during 2 time-lines. The 1st, occurring within 10 nm
from the coast during the daily pinned sea breeze cycle. And the
2nd, during the pre-dawn hrs of each day due to a low level jet
that occasionally mixes down to the sfc as 20+ kt gusts.

Significant seas will run around 3 ft with 4 footers possible
off CAPE fear. A weak ese ground swell at 8 to 9 second periods
will remain active thru the period. However, it's the 4 to 5
second period wind chop that's going to dominate.

Long term Friday through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... Not necessarily the standard "southwest
winds of 10-15 and seas of 2-4 feet" forecast, well at least not
for some of the period. These conditions will be in place
Thursday. By Friday a backdoor front will make a run to the
south at lest briefly. There could be some northeast winds but
for now maintained the direction at easterly into early
Saturday. The sea breeze and retreating front will buckle the
direction to more southeast by the end of the period.

Significant seas will be 1-3 feet but could be a little higher
briefly if a decent northeast surge develops.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for scz017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.

Beach hazards statement until 9 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz087-096-099-
105>110.

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108-110.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 8
near term... Jdw 8
short term... Dch
long term... Shk
aviation... Jdw 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 0 mi54 min W 9.9 G 14 86°F 79°F1014.4 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 5 mi63 min WNW 2.9 88°F 1015 hPa76°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi48 min 80°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi40 min W 5.8 G 9.7 82°F 80°F1013.5 hPa
WLON7 9 mi54 min 88°F 81°F1014.1 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi40 min WSW 16 G 21 81°F 81°F1014.2 hPa
41108 36 mi48 min 81°F4 ft
SSBN7 45 mi108 min 1 ft
41159 45 mi48 min 80°F4 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 45 mi40 min WSW 9.7 G 12 82°F 81°F1014.6 hPa
41064 45 mi40 min WSW 14 G 18 80°F 80°F1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC8 mi55 minWNW 910.00 miFair89°F75°F63%1014.1 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC24 mi68 minWSW 810.00 miFair87°F77°F73%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9SW11W13SW12SW11SW9SW8W18
G30
NW5CalmSW4SW6SW6SW6W9W8W9W7W7W9W10W11W10NW9
1 day agoS8W8S9S6S9SW11S10SW8SW9SW6S7SW6SW6SW7SW6SW7W8SW6W8SW8SW8SW9W11SW7
2 days agoSE7SE7SE9S5S7SE10S13SE6S5S4S4S4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7SW85

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
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Tue -- 12:39 AM EDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:13 PM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:17 PM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.34.43.82.81.60.4-0.3-0.5-0.20.51.52.63.53.93.7320.90.1-0.2-0.10.41.32.4

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:02 AM EDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:49 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:41 PM EDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:05 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
33.94.54.74.53.72.81.80.8-0.1-0.30.41.72.83.74.24.43.932.11.20.400.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.