Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wrightsville Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:08PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:37 PM EST (20:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:07PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 321 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun night..N winds 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft.
AMZ200 321 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Increased winds and wave heights continue tonight as cold front passes across the coastal waters. High pressure will build over the waters starting Friday, continuing through the weekend into next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrightsville Beach, NC
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location: 34.21, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 151725
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1225 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move directly across the coastal carolinas
today, bringing widespread rain and rapid changes in
temperatures and winds throughout the day. Rain should taper off
later this afternoon as drier air builds in. A pair of dry cold
fronts next week should keep temperatures generally below
normal.

Near term through tonight
As of 530 am Thursday... Minor tweaks to the high temperature and
hourly temperature forecasts based on the 06z GFS and NAM which
still appear to have a better handle on the synoptic low
location off the ga sc coast compared to the hrrr rap models.

The immediate coastline of sc will briefly sneak into the warm
sector this morning as will the CAPE fear area by late morning.

Temps at ilm could breach 70 degrees, which opens up the
potential of surface-based CAPE values approaching 1000 j kg.

With 0-6 km bulk shear near 70 knots and bulk richardson values
potentially ending up in the sweet spot of 10-15, we'll be
watching this one closely for a shallow supercell or two to race
onshore along the warm front over the next six hours. -tra
discussion from 300 am follows...

all of the CWA remains in the cold sector of the evolving storm
system and will remain so the next several hours. The more
organized shield of precipitation resides to the west with some
convective cells offshore well to the south. Overall the system
is progressing much like we anticipated. The main rain shield
will remain to the west with the good diffluence aloft while the
coastal front trough and low pressure will allow some good rain
producing and possibly severe weather along the coast in a few
hours. The near term guidance shows this occurring starting
across southern coastal areas about 13 utc and with a convective
line moving quickly north and east through about 18 utc. We
continue to advertise categorical pops through this time
trending down this afternoon. SPC has elevated the risk to
slight for the coastal nc counties. Really no changes to the
temperature forecast as well with rising readings along the
coast this morning with much cooler temperatures inland.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 300 am Thursday... Several strong shortwaves responsible
for today's storminess will race off the new england coast
Friday, followed by a flatter, more zonal upper level pattern
across the eastern half of the nation. A very positively-tilted
(practically oriented east-west) trough will sink into the
central plains states Saturday, but should remain well north of
the carolinas. The big story will be the blissfully dry weather
as precipitable water values fall to 0.25 to 0.45 inches.

Surface high pressure building across the gulf coast states on
Friday will shift northeastward into the mid-atlantic states on
Saturday. Dry northwest winds on Friday will become dry
northeast winds on Saturday.

Friday should be the cooler of the two days as the heart of the
post-frontal low-level cold pool moves across the carolinas.

Even with mostly sunny skies highs should hold in the 56-59
range. As winds diminish Friday night the stage will be set for
areas of frost to develop late across inland areas. Since a
killing freeze has not yet occurred this fall it's likely we'll
need a frost advisory as lows fall into the mid 30s inland, and
a few degrees warmer along the coast. 850 mb temps don't warm
appreciably between Friday and Saturday but the airmass below
850 mb should warm, leading to highs likely making it into the
low-mid 60s Saturday. A weak seabreeze could even develop along
the beaches Saturday afternoon.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Thru Monday, the longwave pattern
aloft paints a low amplitude trough covering nearly the entire
u.S. With the trough axis west of the ilm cwa. The flow aloft
will generally be westerly with equal inputs from the flow out
of canada, ie. Northern jet, and the subtropical jet or the
southern jet. As a result, no major storm systems through mon
with temps each day right at normal for this time of the year.

For Tue into Wed period, difficult to say if the longwave
pattern is in the midst of changing. Or, is it just potent mid
level impulses that dive out of canada to amplify the upper trof
resulting in a possible quick low pressure system affecting the
east coast in he mid to mainly late week period. This will be
our 1st shot of pcpn in almost a week if any of these S W mid-
level troughs materialize.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 18z... As main rain event has lifted to our northeast, have
removed rain from the tafs, though still slight chance of a stray
shower or two over the next few hours but hard to tell where and
when. Lifr ifr conditions dominate the area, with MVFR in the se
corner of nc. The tricky part of this TAF period is forecasting
when these ceilings will lift to MVFR. Expecting all terminals to
be MVFR by late afternoon, with intermittent ifr possible thereafter,
until skies begin to clear intoVFR around 6z. Winds will generally
be from the west-northwest into tomorrow.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr lifting overnight thurs for possible
stratus and fog Fri morning. After this, drier,VFR conditions
Friday into next week. Dry cold frontal passage expected late
Monday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 11 am Thursday... Latest surface observations from off
shore buoy locations continue to lessen as gale conditions
transition to small craft winds and gusts. As a result, the gale
warnings have been replaced with small craft advisories until 7
pm this evening. Offshore winds will lessen as high pressure
filters into the area tonight with seas between 4 and 5 feet
and west winds on the order of 10 to 20 kts.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 300 am Thursday... Low pressure will move quickly
northeastward off coastal new england on Friday, making way for
high pressure along the gulf coast to build across the entire
east coast. Northwest winds will diminish during the day Friday,
but 15-20 kt winds Friday morning may maintain adverse
conditions for small craft. As the high moves into the mid-
atlantic states on Saturday, winds will veer north, then
northeasterly with speeds generally around 10 knots. Dry weather
is expected through the period.

In addition to local wind waves, NOAA wavewatch and nwps models
both indicate a rather substantial easterly 9-second swell will
continue through the weekend, averaging 3-4 feet in amplitude
out at the frying pan shoals buoy. Some of this swell energy
will be blocked from entering the coastal waters between cape
fear and myrtle beach by the shallow water on frying pan shoals
itself, but other portions of the coastal waters can expect
this swell to become the primary wave component by no later
than Friday night.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... With a rather relaxed sfc pg thruout
the period, winds will stay below 15 kt and quite possibly aob
10 kt for a portion of the time. This in turn will result in
short period wind driven waves that should not be a problem to
boaters. However, the 9+ second period ese ground swell will
likely become the dominant input to the significant seas
formula. Wavewatch3 indicates a 2 to 3 ft possibly up to 4 feet
ese ground swell at the advertised 9+ second periods.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for amz250-
252-254-256.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Mck
short term... Tra
long term... Dch
aviation... Vao
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 0 mi37 min W 11 G 16 61°F 68°F1009 hPa (-0.0)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi37 min 66°F7 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi29 min NW 14 G 21 62°F 66°F1008 hPa
WLON7 9 mi37 min 58°F 62°F1009.3 hPa (+1.0)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi29 min W 21 G 33 66°F 72°F1008.7 hPa
41108 36 mi37 min 68°F6 ft
41064 45 mi29 min W 25 G 35 71°F 75°F1007.1 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 45 mi29 min NW 16 G 21 52°F 65°F1010.4 hPa
41159 45 mi37 min 75°F11 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC8 mi44 minW 16 G 2110.00 miOvercast59°F55°F90%1009.2 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC24 mi57 minWNW 13 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F55°F84%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW8NW11NW4NW5N9N8
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N7N7N6N9NE8NE8NE9N11NE13NE13NE10NE14NE15NE13N12NE14N14N14
2 days agoN6NE4SE13
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SW11W6W3W5SW8W9W7W6SW4W10W11SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:38 AM EST     2.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:37 AM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:58 PM EST     3.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:38 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.92.621.40.90.70.60.91.322.73.23.43.22.721.40.80.50.50.71.32

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:00 AM EST     3.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:17 AM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:28 PM EST     4.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:05 PM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.53.23.63.73.52.81.91.20.70.50.61.42.53.43.84.14.13.62.71.91.20.70.40.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.