Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belville, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:38PM Monday October 15, 2018 6:29 AM EDT (10:29 UTC) Moonrise 12:24PMMoonset 10:41PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 352 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
Today..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Tue night..SE winds 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 352 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will shift off the mid-atlantic coast today. A cold front will cross the area on Tuesday and move well offshore Wednesday. High pressure will build over the waters late Wednesday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belville, NC
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location: 34.23, -77.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 150903
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
503 am edt Mon oct 15 2018

Synopsis
Temperatures will warm today and remain above normal through
Wednesday. A cold front will slowly drop southward early this
week, affecting the area with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms Tue into wed. The cold front will finally exit
south of the area late Wednesday followed by modest high
pressure for Thu and Fri with cooler and drier conditions,
typical of autumn for this time of the year. A stronger cold
front will cross the area this upcoming weekend followed by
high pressure with a re-enforcing shot of cooler and dry air.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Monday... Elongated surface high and 5h ridge
centered over the fl peninsula and the bahamas will maintain
control for another day. Wedge will continue to break down as
the surface high shifts off the coast. This gives southerly
flow the chance to spread across the forecast area later this
morning. Guidance is hinting at some light showers developing
later today as diurnal heating and weak directional convergence
tap into low level moisture. However, it does not look like any
measurable rain will fall across inland areas this morning as
the isentropic lift weakens shifts north (although an isolated
area of light rain cannot be ruled out). Mid- level subsidence
will keep any clouds that develop topped between 8k and 10k ft,
but this is still high enough to produce some light rain.

Rainfall amounts in areas that experience showers will be
anywhere from a trace to a hundredth or two. Aforementioned
ridging helps keep a slow moving cold front north and west of
the forecast area through the end of the period. Increasing
southerly flow and occasional peaks of Sun will allow for highs
above climo today, mostly mid 80s with lows in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 400 am Monday... The majority of this period will be
dealing with a sfc cold front, oriented west to east, that will
be taking it's sweet ole time in dropping southward across and
south of the ilm cwa. This a result of the subtropical ridge
aloft holding it's ground, with the ilm CWA being it's furthest
northward extent. However, a series of mid-level S W trofs
dropping SE out of canada, associated with the polar
westerlies, will one after the other suppress the subtropical
ridge slightly further southward each of it's passages. As a
result, the sfc cold front will follow suit and also drop
southward, finally clearing the ilm CWA Wednesday evening.

In it's wake, high pressure with modified canadian and rocky
mountain air will overspread the fa Wednesday night and beyond.

Pops this period will be as for pcpn chances, looking at
low to moderate chance for pop chances mainly for showers with
isolated thunderstorms possible along and ahead of the cold
front where the best instability will reside. The majority of
the pcpn will occur post frontal, basically within a 200 mile
wide band of showers or light rain. Total pcpn for this entire
period will generally be under one quarter of an inch. Temps
will run one to 2 categories above normal, nearly summer-like
tue into Wed with a reality check Wed night when CAA after the
cfp drives temps into the 50s for Thu lows with a few upper 40s
possible well inland.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 326 pm Sunday... This period off the bat brings cold air
advection following daybreak Wednesday, in wake of a cold front,
as a 1032 high migrates eastward across the central ms valley.

Sensible weather impacts include a chilly start to Thursday in
the 40s most locals, and max-ts holding below 70 Thursday.

Progressive flow will move this anticyclonic cell ocean-bound
Friday, while strong warm air advection ensues in response to a
highly amplified upstream trough. This trough will force a
strong cold frontal passage across the coast Saturday night.

Amplification, shear, and moisture profiles, do suggest a
chance of severe tstms 'potentially' with this system, Saturday
afternoon and evening. Showers will likely linger behind the
front Sunday as the upper trough remains upstream, but with
notably cooler daytime temperatures on Sunday.

Aviation 09z Monday through Friday
As of 06z...VFR conditions will continue along the coast
overnight however, patchy MVFR ifr fog is expected just before
daybreak at the inland terminals. Clouds in the 3k-5k range
will linger on Mon with potential for light, isolated showers
inland from late morning through mid-afternoon. Operationally
these will not be significant and will be light enough that
visibility will not drop under 6sm. Low clouds and fog may
become more of an issue at or just beyond the end of the taf
period, especially low stratus along the coast.

Extended outlook... High pressure and passing mid to upper
level clouds will result inVFR conditions next couple of days.

The exception will be possibility of MVFR ifr from fog mon
and or Tue morning. A cold front accompanied with precipitation
will push across late Tue early Wed with brief MVFR ifr
conditions.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Monday... Surface high shifting off the mid-
atlantic coast this morning will help maintain southerly flow
across the waters through the period. Daytime heating will
tighten up the pressure gradient a little and speeds around 10
kt in the morning hours will increase to 10 to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Gradient will relax in the evening and southerly
flow will drop back around 10 kt overnight. Seas will be around
2 ft through the period.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 400 am Monday... The majority of this period will be
dealing with a sfc cold front oriented west to east that will be
taking it's time dropping southward across the area waters.

Models finally clear this front south of the area by late wed.

Decent post frontal CAA occurs followed by the tightening of the
sfc pg as a modest 1035+ mb high pressure begins to push to the
area from the nw. Wind directions will be challenging as the
cold front slowly drops across the waters Tue into Wed with
speeds generally around 10 kt. It's later Wed thru Wed night,
after the cfp, are when wind speeds will increase to 15 to 20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt late Wed night into Thu at the peak of the
caa and tightened sfc pg. Scec and or SCA conditions will be
possible.

Significant seas generally 1 to 3 ft majority of this
period will build to 3 to 5 ft with 6 footers possible, late
wed night into thu. A 1 to 2 foot ese ground swell at 11 to 12
second periods will dominate this period. The exception will
come late Wed thru Wed night and beyond, with increasing wind
driven waves at 4 to 6 second periods will become the dominate
input to the sig. Seas calculations.

Long term Thursday through Friday ...

as of 326 pm Sunday... A difficult marine period in wake of a
moderately strong cold front, that features building high
pressure late Wednesday through Thursday. Winds to let up on
Friday as the center of the high nears the coast. NE winds
15-20 kt and gusty on tap late Wednesday through Thursday. Seas
of 3-5 feet expected during this time and up to 6 feet outer
waters. Marine showers or an isolated TSTM possible late
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Iii
short term... Dch
long term... Mjc
aviation... Iii


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 0 mi41 min 73°F 76°F1020.8 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi41 min S 14 G 16 78°F 78°F1021 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi81 min S 12 G 16 78°F 79°F1020.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi59 min 78°F3 ft
41108 35 mi59 min 78°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi81 min SSW 7.8 G 12 79°F 80°F1020.9 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi81 min S 14 G 18 78°F 78°F1021.9 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC4 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair70°F64°F82%1021 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC22 mi44 minSSE 410.00 miFair75°F65°F71%1021 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE4NE10NE7E8E10E8E12E10
G16
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N10NW7N7N4N73N5N5NE4NE6NE7NE8NE8NE7NE9NE6NE6NE8NE6
2 days agoNW8NW8NW12N12
G19
NW10NW953CalmW6W7W7NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
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Mon -- 02:45 AM EDT     4.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:14 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:21 PM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:03 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.53.943.62.81.91.30.80.50.71.62.73.74.24.44.43.832.21.610.71

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:00 AM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:29 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:36 PM EDT     4.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:18 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.23.63.73.52.821.30.90.50.61.22.33.23.84.14.13.732.21.61.10.70.81.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.