Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belville, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:34PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:17 AM EST (06:17 UTC) Moonrise 9:48PMMoonset 9:54AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1106 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Overnight..S winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt late. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft. A chance of showers. Showers likely late.
Thu..S winds 30 to 35 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 11 ft, subsiding to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Showers with isolated tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1106 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. An approaching strong cold front will bring gale conditions late tonight through Thursday morning. Small craft advisory conditions will follow late Thursday through early Friday with the front pushing offshore Friday morning. High pressure will build from the west and weaken this weekend, before moving offshore on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belville, NC
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location: 34.23, -77.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 240529
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1229 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
Mild and breezy conditions overnight can be expected, with
quick passing light showers, before a cold front brings more
significant rain Thursday morning, along with a slight chance
of a thunderstorm. Seasonably cool and dry air will build across
the region in wake of the front through the weekend. A slight
warming trend will bring milder daytime temperatures Monday and
Tuesday.

Near term through today
As of 700 pm Wednesday... Temperatures about the region will
move little as robust warm air advection offsets diurnal
cooling. A flatline trace to very slight rise from 0z-12z in
both t TD is the expectation, many locals to achieve the min_t
early in the night. Mucape MLCAPE fields to remain low until an
uptick peak between 12z-18z Thursday, 300-400 j kg only modest
yes, but conjoined with aggressive kinematic and frontal
convergence seems enough for TSTM inclusion in a brief passing
window. Sea fog encroachment onto land possible overnight with
td rises even small, and onshore mild wind atop chilled sst
values. 10 meter and surface winds to peak Thursday morning.

Winds to veer from ssw to wsw through middle and late afternoon
in an easing mode.

As of 415 pm Wednesday... The fa is now well into the warm sector
well ahead of the strong eastward moving cold front that will
be working its way across the windward side of the appalachian
mountains early this evening. Various model soundings illustrate
moisture availability remains at or below 800 mb which at this
juncture is primarily involving atlantic ocean moisture. As a
result, have continued in carrying a low chance for light
rainshowers late this aftn and well into this evening. As the
mid-level S W trof continues it's progression eastward, it taps
plenty of gulf of mexico moisture and carries it northward.

Model trends have been narrowing the highest moisture content of
the atm for this event, including gulf and atlantic combined
moisture, to occur prior to sunrise Thu thru midday thu. Models
indicate peak progged pws of 1.5 inches and excellent low level
wind shear, both speed and directional changes during this 6 to
9 hr time-line. However, instability is lacking which is usual
for this time of the year, ie. Low CAPE and high shear. With 50
kt winds progged at just 800 feet off the sfc, a well mixed
moderate to strong shower could produced a strong sfc wind gust
with thunder lacking. Will however, indicate isolated low chance
for thunder during the 6 to 9 hr peak of pcpn occurrence.

Temperatures will be running 3 to 4 categories above normal
which will make it seem even warmer given the brief arctic
temperatures experienced from Sun night thru late last night.

Short term tonight through Friday night
As of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure will build in behind
exiting cold front thurs night through Fri night. A very broad
mid to upper level trough will remain over the eastern conus
though with high getting suppressed a bit further south heading
into the weekend. This leaves a generally drier and cooler air
mass over the area. Temps will drop a good 30 degrees thurs
night with temps down into the mid 30s by daybreak. The 850
temps drop out from near 12c thurs aftn down to -5 by Fri night.

This CAA will keep daytime highs below normal for Fri with most
places closer to 50 most of the aftn. Fri night will have a
better shot at more decent radiational cooling as winds lighten
with mainly clear skies. Temps should drop down below freezing
most places.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... A very broad mid to upper trough will
remain over the eastern conus. This will maintain more of a
progressive flow in the northern stream, while sfc high
pressure will remained sprawled across the deep south over the
weekend, migrating closer overhead by Monday. Overall expect dry
weather through the weekend into early next week with a good
deal of sunshine. Temps will be just on the cool side through
the weekend, but will begin to warm through early next week.

Models continue to show low pressure riding up off the
southeast coast early next week, but may be too far away to
produce any weather. The next appreciable chc of rain will most
likely come during the middle of next week as a cold front
reaches the area late tues into wed.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 06z... A fetch of low-level moisture extending from gge to rdu
is where scattered MVFR CIGS and showers continue to advect inland.

This fetch of moisture will move with the warm front (currently over
the piedmont of nc), northward and inland. Winds associated with a
low-level jet will intensify and introduce a chance of wind shear
for coastal terminals beginning at 06z. This could provide enough
moisture advection to eek out a few showers ahead of the main line
of precipitation arriving near sunrise. The center of the low
pressure system will cross the area between 12z-16z causing wind
shear to increase as the low-level jet maximum moves NE along the
coast. ExpectVFR CIGS ahead of the line of showers with a few areas
of brief MVFR. As the line approaches, CIGS will remain in the 1k-3k
ft range with heavy showers and a couple rumbles of thunder. At this
time, we do not expect enough TS to include in the TAF due to lack
of instability. Winds will remain gusty and from the south; becoming
southwesterly as the line approaches. CIGS will diminish in the wake
of the front as westerly winds develop, bringing drier and much
cooler air.

Marine
Near term through Thursday ...

as of 700 pm Wednesday... Current sea-spectrum plots show peak
energy contained in sse waves every 6-7 seconds, as a broad
offshore fetch and wave generation region becomes developed.

As the waves organize themselves, peak energy will shift to
longer wavelengths Thursday. During maximum wave-heights of
7 to 12 feet into Thursday, peak wave periods to reach 8-9
seconds. This coupled with gale force winds and gusts, will
produce treacherous mountains of water offshore. Isolated
tstms possible Thursday morning.

As of 400 pm Wednesday... Gale warning remains in effect for all
waters. The sfc pg will continue to tighten well ahead of the
eastward progression of the strong cold front now located on
the windward side of the appalachian mountain chain. By
daybreak thu, the north-south oriented cold front will be
located along the i-95 corridor. The tightened sfc pg will peak
thu morning just prior to the cfp. After fropa, models quickly
relax the sfc pg during Thu aftn. The CAA will not nearly be as
intense like what occurred Sun into Sun night due to the caa
involved is not of arctic origin. Winds will drop thru SCA thu
aftn and continue trending lower Thu night. Significant seas
will primarily be short period dominated, ie. Wind driven waves,
with no long period ground swell really involved. Seas will
peak in the 6 to 11 foot range with the highest seas off cape
fear and romaine respectively with the shallow shoals helping
with heights. "victory at sea conditions" will help describe the
rather chaotic seas due to wind direction changes during the
next 24 hrs. From the pre-dawn Thu hrs thru midday thu, expect
the best chances to see widespread showers with embedded
tstorms.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure will build in behind
exiting cold front. Winds and seas will remain elevated with
sca through thurs night in NW to N winds up to 15 to 20 kts
initially. By Fri morning, seas will diminish in off shore flow
and will continue on a downward trend through fri. Expect
lighter northerly winds Fri aftn through Fri night with seas
down under 4 ft.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure sprawled across the deep
south over the weekend will shift closer overhead and then off
the southeast coast by Sun night. This will generally maintain a
light off shore flow 5 to 10 kts most of the time and seas less
than 3 ft.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for amz250-252-254-
256.

Synopsis... Rgz
near term... Dch mjc
short term... Rgz
long term... Rgz
aviation... 21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 0 mi48 min 62°F 46°F1013.1 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi48 min S 17 G 18 60°F 1013.6 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi70 min S 14 G 19 60°F 55°F1013.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi48 min 54°F7 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi70 min S 19 G 25 64°F 58°F1014.2 hPa
41108 35 mi48 min 53°F8 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi70 min S 14 G 18 59°F 52°F1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC4 mi25 minS 11 G 2010.00 miOvercast64°F57°F78%1012.6 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC22 mi38 minSSE 10 G 167.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F57°F86%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE4E3CalmSE9SE10SE5SE4SE10SE11
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1 day agoNE3NE4N5NE6NE6N4NE7NE10N6N8N6CalmE4E7E6E6E4E4E3NE5NE4NE5N3N4
2 days agoNW16NW12
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NW15N14N14N10N6N4N5N4CalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
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Thu -- 06:35 AM EST     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:53 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:12 PM EST     4.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:13 PM EST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.44.13.22.31.30.3-0.4-0.50.52.13.64.44.74.643.12.21.20.3-0.4-0.11.12.63.6

Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:20 AM EST     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:53 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:25 AM EST     4.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:57 PM EST     3.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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320.8-0.1-0.7-0.50.41.62.93.94.44.43.82.81.60.5-0.3-0.5-0.10.9233.74

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.