Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belville, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:30PM Thursday January 18, 2018 8:32 AM EST (13:32 UTC) Moonrise 8:14AMMoonset 7:04PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 647 Am Est Thu Jan 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 ft, then 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ200 647 Am Est Thu Jan 18 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure over the lower mississippi valley will slowly move east, reaching the southeast coast late Saturday, then moving offshore Sunday. A cold front will approach from the west Monday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belville, NC
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location: 34.23, -77.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 181054
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
555 am est Thu jan 18 2018

Synopsis
Cold and dry arctic air, will spread into the region through
today. Temperatures will warm into the weekend as high pressure
moves offshore. Another cold front will bring rain chances by
Monday evening, but little cooling, and temperatures are
expected to remain above normal into next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Thursday... A potent mid to upper low over eastern
nc continues to squeeze out any available moisture with snow
showers or flurries just coming to an end across coastal nc.

There was little to no accumulation across the area but places
to our northwest just a county over from our local forecast
area received upwards of 2 inches.

As this deep low moves east and then lifts off to the northeast
through this morning, deep NW flow on the back end will
continue to feed in plenty of cold and dry air. This blast of
arctic air, arriving in force with gusty NW winds up to 25 mph,
will continue to drive down the temps through this morning. Most
readings should be in the lower 20s with some spots dropping
just below 20. The combination of these chilly temps and brisk
nw winds will produce wind chills between 10 and 15 degrees this
morning. These winds should help to dry off the water on the
roadways through the morning, but be careful of any possible ice
spots during this morning's commute.

Skies will clear through this morning from west to east leaving
bright sunshine across the area today. The winds will back and
weaken slowly through this afternoon as high pressure builds in
from the west. Temps will only rebound into the upper 30s to
lower 40s as this cold arctic air mass remains over the
carolinas.

High pressure will shift east settling south of the area through
later today into tonight. This will leave a light w-sw flow
from the surface up through the low to mid levels of the
atmosphere with a continued dry and cold air mass in place.

Although 850 temps begin to recover through tonight, the
atmosphere will decouple with decent radiational cooling.

Therefore expect temps to drop off rapidly, down below freezing
this evening once again and down into the mid 20s for overnight
lows.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 300 am Wednesday... The surface weather pattern Friday and
Saturday will be very quiet as high pressure over alabama makes
its way off the georgia coast by Saturday afternoon. In the low
levels of the atmosphere this means we'll maintain a light west
to southwesterly wind with gradually warming temperatures
through the period. I've boosted forecast highs both days by a
couple degrees, but even then this leaves me on the low end of
guidance for Saturday where my forecast highs are around 60
degrees. For a month where our temperatures have averaged 7 to 9
degrees below normal so far, this will feel wonderful.

In contrast to the surface pattern, the upper levels may become a
little more convoluted as an upper level low ejects eastward along
the gulf coast into the southern stream of the jet on Saturday. Some
high clouds could move across the carolinas Saturday and Saturday
night ahead of this feature, but the near-absence of low level
baroclinicity plus a poorly positioned jet should prevent the
development of any surface feature. Dry weather should continue.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... The chief caption this period "warming
trend". Even in wake of a cold front early next week, minimal
cold air advection is seen, as the upper pattern sees a SE atlc
upper ridge gradually expand NW into the area. A weak cold pool
aloft meanders eastward along the gulf coast this weekend and
offshore by Monday, will little sensible weather impacts here.

As a result, much of next week may feature sunshine and 60s in
the afternoons, likely feeling like an early spring compared to
the recent weather pattern. Aside from late Monday and early
Tuesday, this entire period will maintain a dry column and low
pwat values. The coldest period, will be Saturday morning, near
freezing, the mildest, perhaps just ahead of the cold front
Monday into the upper 60s by afternoon. Tuesday looks to be the
breeziest day in wake of the cold front, with w-nw breezes.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
As of 12z... High confidence forVFR conditions through the forecast
period. Cold air advection will continue with falling dewpoints and
gusty northwest winds. Temperatures will be below normal with highs
barely in the 40s. Diminishing winds tonight with more cold morning
lows.

Extended outlook...VFR.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Thursday... Strong NW winds behind arctic cold
front, up to 20 to 25 kts, will continue into the morning hours.

Buoy observations were showing frequent gusts over 30 kts.

These strong winds have driven seas up to 5 to 7 ft, maintaining
small craft advisory conditions. The strong off shore flow will
keep highest seas in the outer waters. The SCA is on target to
expire at 7 am for southern 2 marine zones and by early aftn for
northern zones as the gradient begins to weaken as low pressure
system lifts off to the northeast. May need to post
precautionary headlines for a few hours once SCA ends as winds
and seas will remain elevated until later this afternoon.

Winds will back slightly to w-nw as high pressure builds in from
the west through tonight, with center remaining south of the
local waters. Overall, winds and seas will diminish leaving 2 to
4 ft seas and 10 to 15 kt winds by tonight
short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 300 am Wednesday... High pressure centered over alabama Friday
morning will move east and off the georgia coast Saturday afternoon.

Southwest to west winds 10-15 kt are expected through the period
with seas around 2 feet, primarily in east-southeasterly 10 second
swells. Dry weather conditions are expected through the period.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Welcoming and friendly marine
conditions this period, particularly in wake of recent weather.

With high pressure offshore, a milder return SW flow will
prevail, with seas 3 feet or less, and even 1-2 feet at times,
with winds less than 15 kt. Seas will begin to build Monday as
sustained SE fetch offshore, starts pushing wave energy toward
our coast. By Monday night seas of 4-5 ft in 7 second intervals,
may be rolling in. No tstms this period, but a few rain showers
can be expected Monday night, as a cold front crosses the
coast. Inshore water temperatures were in the upper 40s to lower
50s.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for amz254-
256.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for amz250-
252.

Near term... Rgz
short term... Tra
long term... Mjc
aviation... 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 0 mi45 min 24°F 46°F1025.8 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 7 mi108 min W 2.9 24°F 1023 hPa19°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi45 min WNW 8.9 G 13 24°F 46°F1025.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi34 min 47°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi85 min NW 16 G 21 28°F 47°F1023.8 hPa
41108 35 mi33 min 46°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi85 min NNW 23 G 33 32°F 61°F1023.8 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi85 min NNW 14 G 18 25°F 1024.8 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC4 mi40 minWNW 1410.00 miFair23°F15°F72%1026 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC22 mi58 minNW 9 G 1510.00 miFair23°F15°F73%1025.7 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE5SE8E6E8NE6E6E4N6W6NW8NW9N7N10N10NW17
G23
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NW15NW15
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NW12NW13NW14NW16W14
1 day agoN4CalmN3N5SE3NW4NW7SW4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoNW9NW10N8NW8NW10NW9N7NW8N10N3NW5N4N4N3N3CalmCalmNW4NW3NW3NW4NW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:30 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:25 AM EST     4.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:09 PM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:04 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:30 PM EST     3.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
321.20.50.10.10.92.33.54.24.44.43.932.11.30.60.20.51.62.93.63.93.9

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:46 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:57 AM EST     4.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:31 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:03 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:10 PM EST     3.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50-0.10.312.13.13.94.13.83.12.21.30.5000.51.32.22.93.23.12.61.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.