Saturday, April21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belville, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:49PM Saturday April 21, 2018 11:40 AM EDT (15:40 UTC) Moonrise 10:18AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 925 Am Edt Sat Apr 21 2018
Rest of today..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Mon night..E winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Periods of rain.
Tue..SE winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft. Rain likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft.
AMZ200 925 Am Edt Sat Apr 21 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Canadian high pressure will build over the area from the north through Sunday. Low pressure will move slowly across the area Monday and Tuesday. The low will slowly move northeast, away from the region, on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belville, NC
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location: 34.23, -77.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 211332
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
932 am edt Sat apr 21 2018

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure will build into the carolinas through
the weekend, bringing dry weather with chilly temperatures.

Slow-moving low pressure will cross the southeastern u.S.

Monday through Wednesday, bringing widespread rainfall with
continued below-normal temperatures. Another system may affect
the carolinas Thursday into Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 930 am Saturday... Another day of clear skies, low-level
easterly winds and very dry air aloft with a strong subsidence
inversion. Temperatures should run several degrees warmer than
yesterday due to a gradual moderation of the airmass. Air
temperatures out at the buoys are indication of this. I've
tweaked forecast highs upwards slight, with temperatures
expected to range from the lower 70s inland to the upper 60s at
the coastal cities. The beaches themselves may get stuck in the
lower 60s with the cool onshore wind. Discussion from 300 am
follows...

surface high over the ohio valley this morning will drift
southeast today, ending up just north of the outer banks late in
the day. The high will be reinforced by canadian high late
tonight into early sun. Northerly flow continues through the
period, but does become a little more onshore in the afternoon.

Low level moisture return will be limited, even with developing
onshore flow. Pattern aloft also works against any significant
moisture return with weak shortwave ridge keeping flow above 10k
ft from the northwest. Precipitable water under half an inch
through the period shows just how dry this air mass is. Mid-
level ridge does start to weaken flatten later tonight with flow
aloft becoming westerly. This might lead to an increase in
upper level moisture and a bit of high cloud above 20k ft
overnight. However, precip chances remain zero through the
period.

Highs should end up a little warmer than yesterday, although the
slightly cooler start this morning will keep the region below climo.

Coastal areas will struggle to hit 70, especially with onshore flow
starting to materialize. Outside of the coastal influence highs
should be in the lower 70s. Weak east to northeast flow overnight
along with air mass modification will keep lows slightly warmer than
the last few nights, but temps still end up well below climo.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 400 am Saturday... The beginning of this period, Sunday,
will be the last dry day and glimpses of the Sun for the next
few days. Expect deteriorating conditions starting Sun night and
progressively worse through early Tuesday. Pops will commence
sun night with pcpn developing and spreading from southwest to
northeast. Looking at basically overrunning stratiform light
rains Sun night that will progress to light to moderate rains
mon through early tue. Have included isolated or slight chance
for thunder from Mon into tue. This in response to the sfc low
trying to re-organize literally overhead by tue, farther away
from the closed mid-level low that is progged to be over tn.

Will have plenty of sources of moisture with gulf of mexico and
atlantic tapped. The fa could see 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall
over a time period running from Sun night through tue. This
beneficial rain over a 2 day period is what farmers need for
their crops. The mid-level closed low is taking it's sweet ole
time moving across the southeast states and by Tue night it's
progged to only have pushed to the ohio river valley but is
weakening as it becomes an open S W trough. Rainfall totals
will depend on the future movement of this mid-level low and
could end up higher if this upper low either slows down even
further or moves toward the southeast u.S. Coast.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... Cutoff low will continue to move east
along the gulf coast states Mon into tues spreading clouds and
rain across the area from south to north. Increasing moist on
shore flow will push pcp water values up to near 1.5 inches late
mon into tues. The center of the low should reach the sc coast
tues night and then track up along the carolina coast lifting
off to the northeast late wed. The best moisture and lift should
come together to produce the greatest QPF Mon night through
tues with fairly widespread amounts between a half inch and an
inch with locally higher amounts.

Some dry air should wrap in with westerly flow on the back end
of the system on wed, but lingering upper level energy could
keep some lingering clouds and showers around. By thurs, another
cutoff low will track across the appalachian mtns, with
increased potential for clouds and pcp late thurs into fri.

Overall a damp week ahead with a good amount of clouds and pcp
through the week.

Temps running on the cooler side on Mon will return toward
normal tues into wed. Overall temps will remain near or just
below climo through much of the week.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 12z... Another nice aviation day in store with high pressure in
control. Light gradient today will allow an onshore wind by midday.

Light winds tonight with some fog possible after 08z., best chance
cre.

Extended outlook...VFR. Mon periods of MVFR ra. Tue periods of
ifr ra becoming MVFR. WedVFR.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 930 am Saturday... Current wind speeds are about 5 knots
higher than forecast, however this could be a low-level
nocturnal jet that will dissipate shortly. All model guidance is
indicating 12-15 knot easterly winds today. A check of latest
buoy observations shows 2-3 feet with only a slight uptick
expected during the afternoon. Today's seabreeze should be weak
as the preexisting onshore flow should prevent a significant
temperature variation from developing along the coastline.

Discussion from 300 am follows...

surface high over the ohio valley will gradually move southeast
today. The high will end up centered just north of the outer
banks later today. Slight increase in the pressure gradient
later today into tonight results in a slight increase in east-
northeast flow this afternoon but speeds are not expected to
exceed 15 kt. Winds will become more easterly later today and
overnight. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft though the period.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 400 am Saturday... Deteriorating conditions both winds and
seas, will steadily get worse during this period and climax late
mon night through early tue. The sfc pg will begin tightening
at the start of this period and persist through tue. Onshore
winds will dominate the local waters with SCA conditions by mon
morning. Will see a steady increase in winds with sustained
speeds peaking in the 25 to 30 kt range late Mon into Tue with
gale force gusts of 35 to possibly 40 kt. Will have to
contemplate the possibility of raising gales during the next 1
to 2 full forecast packages if this trend continues. Due to
increasing onshore winds throughout this period and peaking
early tue, significant seas will likely reach double digits
across the outer waters, 10 to 20 nm out and especially off cape
fear and romain respectively. Wind driven waves at 5 to 7
second periods will dominate the local waters and will likely
transform into a pseudo swell at 6 to 9 second periods late mon
into tue. Pcpn from late Sun night through Mon into Tue will
produce lowered vsby to 1 to 3 nm and lower from moderate to
heavy rains or from an isolated tstorm.

Long term Tuesday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Low pressure system will move east across
the gulf coast states to the coast of sc by tues night and then
will track NE parallel to the carolina coast. A strong onshore
flow will persist Mon into tues in a tightened gradient flow
between this low pressure system and high pressure moving slowly
off the northeast coast. Winds will diminish as they back from
e-se to n-ne tues night as the center of the low tracks
northeast becoming elongated just off the carolina coast.

Eventually an off shore w-sw flow will develop late Wed as the
low exits off to the northeast.

Overall, expect this onshore push of easterly winds up to 25 to
30 kts to push seas up through Mon into tues, from near 6 ft mon
morning up to possibly 10 to 12 ft by tues morning and then
subsiding slowly as winds back around further becoming offshore
wed. Expect SCA conditions through much of the period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Iii
near term... Tra iii
short term... Dch
long term... Rgz
aviation... Iii


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 0 mi41 min 62°F 63°F1030.3 hPa (+0.9)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi41 min NE 14 G 15 58°F 62°F1031 hPa (+1.2)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi153 min ENE 9.7 G 16 59°F 60°F1029.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi41 min 60°F3 ft
41108 35 mi41 min 61°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi33 min ENE 16 G 21 60°F 66°F1030.2 hPa
SSBN7 39 mi79 min 1 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi33 min E 14 G 18 61°F 61°F1029.5 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC4 mi48 minE 10 G 1510.00 miFair62°F36°F38%1030.6 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC22 mi66 minNE 910.00 miFair62°F40°F45%1030.1 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11
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--W4E6NE3SE6SE7SE5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE4CalmNE4NE6E10E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:09 AM EDT     4.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:31 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:01 PM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:30 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.14.854.94.43.62.61.710.40.41.32.63.64.14.34.13.42.41.50.90.40.51.2

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:07 AM EDT     4.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:36 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:27 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.44.23.52.41.20.3-0.2-0.10.41.122.83.33.42.92.11.10.2-0.3-0.20.21.12.13.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.