Thursday, March23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Lowndesville, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 7:46PM Thursday March 23, 2017 10:12 PM EDT (02:12 UTC) Moonrise 3:35AMMoonset 2:22PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowndesville, SC
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location: 34.23, -82.66     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 240031
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
831 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Cooler air lingers across the region through the end of the work
week. A warm and moist southerly flow develops this weekend as high
pressure moves off the coast and a cold front approaches from the
west. This will bring showers and thunderstorms into the area by
Sunday, which continue into early next week.

Near term /through Friday/
As of 825 pm edt: updated discussion for TAF issuance. Current
near term remains on track thus no sig changes were needed/made.

Previous discussion: with strong high pressure anchored to our ne,
dry conditions and mostly clear skies will prevail thru the
afternoon. As the center of the high slowly moves farther offshore,
sky cover is expected to gradually increase from the west this
evening. Simultaneously, southerly flow will increase across the
fcst area tapping into minor amounts of atlantic moisture. Both the
nam and GFS show some increase in stratus across the upper savannah
valley, and possibly spreading up the piedmont overnight. Thus, i
kept the increase in sky cover across the western half to two-thirds
of the cwfa by daybreak Friday. The moisture appears pretty shallow,
so I kept pops below slight chance thru the morning. Overnight, low
temps are still expected to be right around normal with some
portions of the nc piedmont and foothills slightly below normal.

Short term /Friday night through Sunday/
As of 245 pm edt Thursday: the weekend looks like it will be a
transition to a more wet period, at least into early next week. The
upper ridge axis should be to our east and moving offshore Friday
night. This should push the surface high and surface ridge axis to
the south. Once this happens, moisture will return from the atlantic
early Saturday and then from the gulf later Saturday. Expect
we should see some forcing for light precip near the blue ridge
escarpment of sc and northeast ga by daybreak on Saturday. From
there, precip chances gradually expand. Overall, the evolution
of the upper pattern favors continued moisture transport from the
gulf. Initially, this will be the result of the ridge axis to our
east and an upper low moving from the plains to the mid-ms valley
on Saturday. A NRN stream long wave ridge will have moved over
the top of the upper low while the old low gets kicked out by the
next low moving off the rockies. This lifts the first upper low
northeast across the midwest through Saturday night and Sunday. A
cold front being driven eastward by this feature will run out of
support to move it east and will probably stall just west of the
region on Sunday. Precip chances ramp up gradually through this
period into the categorical over the mtns and likely E of the blue
ridge, what with good forcing acting upon deep moisture. It is too
early to be concerned with severe weather with this system, but
we will have to keep an eye on developments off to the west. Temps
look to be above normal.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/
As of 225 pm edt Thursday: the first half of the medium range will
be marked by a rather progressive pattern, before a return to a high
amplitude/less progressive pattern late in the period. Closely on
the heels of the late short term system, another short wave trough
will approach the area Monday into Monday night. Buoyancy will be
more than adequate for deep convection, and while shear will be
little more than adequate for organized convection, it is
interesting that guidance is trending toward more of a negative tilt
with the trough axis. The resultant strong forcing acting on a
modestly buoyancy air mass should yield at least an isolated severe
convective risk Monday afternoon and evening.

Conditions gradually dry out Tuesday, as the pattern gradually
amplifies, with an upper ridge expected to develop across much of
the eastern CONUS by mid-week. The latter part of the medium
range should be generally dry, although we cannot rule out some
diurnal convection developing by day 7, as some guidance members
progress the upper ridge to the east coast and diurnal instability
returns with southerly flow. Otherwise, temps are expected to be
5-10 degrees above climo through the period.

Aviation /01z Friday through Tuesday/
At kclt and elsewhere: VFR through the vast majority of the taf
cycle with the exception of low stratus probs in the morning given
moisture advection from the south. With that, guidance favors
persistent/increasing southerly moisture advection as the western
atlantic surface ridge continues to dominate. Nam/gfs sounding
exhibit hints of low stratus around daybreak as llv moisture spills
into the region from the south. Opted to carry MVFR CIGS only at
the sc sites and kavl/khky, while featuring a tempo at kclt for a
sct MVFR deck. Otherwise, moisture will continue to increase over
the region through the day on Friday with lowVFR clouds dominant
once any lower stratus erodes with mixing. Winds are expect to
remain southerly and light on Friday.

Outlook: increased low level moisture returns from the south thru
Friday, resulting in increases in sky cover. Some cig restrictions
are possible Friday and Saturday mornings, especially near the blue
ridge escarpment and portions of the sc upstate. Increased precip
chances return Saturday thru Sunday.

Confidence table...

00-06z 06-12z 12-18z 18-00z
kclt high 100% high 93% high 87% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 93% med 66% high 88%
kavl high 100% high 100% med 72% med 75%
khky high 100% high 100% med 76% med 76%
kgmu high 100% high 93% med 66% high 89%
kand high 100% high 93% med 71% high 89%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 46 mi32 min SSE 1 G 6 57°F 1029.5 hPa
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 74 mi52 min E 5.1 G 7 56°F 1030.8 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC18 mi76 minESE 510.00 miOvercast57°F32°F39%1030.6 hPa

Wind History from AND (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE8E8E8NE7NE8NE8NE9NE12E11NE10NE12E12E11
1 day agoSW8
2 days agoSW4CalmSW5S6SW3S3SW5CalmSW7SW3SW4W8W6SW9SW10SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.