Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lowndesville, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 8:07PM Thursday August 24, 2017 12:40 AM EDT (04:40 UTC) Moonrise 8:49AMMoonset 9:08PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowndesville, SC
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location: 34.23, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 240211
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1011 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move through the region today, allowing for
increasing precipitation chances. High pressure building in behind
the front will introduce an extended period of unseasonably cool
conditions that is expected to last through at least early next
week. Although active tropical weather is anticipated near the
southeast early next week, this is unlikely to have any impact on
the weather over our area for at least the next 7 days.

Near term through Thursday
As of 10:10pm edt Wednesday: laurens county is the site of the only
remaining convection this evening, convection which will cool and
move eastward out of the area over the next hour.

The humid and hot edge will come-off the forecast following the
passage of a weak, but welcome, frontal boundary. Latest surface
observations show the front very close to the southeastern edge of
the cwa, in close proximity to remaining showers. This front will
continue to progress on Thursday as upper northeast CONUS shortwave
moves east and a dome of high surface pressure builds over the east
central conus. This will give generally light, northerly winds
tonight and Thursday behind the front and declining dewpoints.

Dewpoints will decline by 5 to 10 degrees by this time tomorrow. High
temperatures on Thursday will also decline by 3 to 5 degrees, and
continue declining past the near term. CAPE declines as well, but a
smidgen of 400-1000 j kg MLCAPE will still be present in piedmont
areas Thursday afternoon. However, significant capping in the
soundings and a total lack of any forcing should preclude any
significant convection, and pops are quite low.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
As of 130 pm Wednesday: northern CONUS high pressure will remain
dominant over our area Thursday night and Friday, with an upper
trough axis along the eastern seaboard. Initially northerly flow
will begin to veer as the pattern progresses ever so slightly
heading into Saturday. Moderately cool and dry conditions
will accompany the high, keeping convective potential small in
conjunction with low-level subsidence. Maxes about a category below
normal are expected. Nonetheless model consensus indicates slight
destabilization over our southwestern mountains Friday afternoon,
so an isolated shower is not out of the question. The more easterly
fetch leads to slightly higher dewpoints and more widespread sbcape
Saturday, and a stronger model response for precip along the blue
ridge. Thus pops expand a bit then. Increased cloud cover however
appears likely to keep temps even cooler, about two categories
below normal.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 140 pm edt Wednesday: the medium range period kicks off on
Saturday evening amidst a rather active synoptic setup. The pattern
will be highlighted by a departing longwave trof over the northeast,
while a pair of tropical systems dominate across the lower latitudes
of the conus. The first and most distinct still looks to be what
is now TD harvey, which by Saturday night is progged to be slowly
churning inland over eastern tx. The second disturbance currently
has a low chance of becoming a TC as it sits over the fl keys,
eastward toward the bahamas. Closer to home, a strong 1028mb
high pressure centered over ontario quebec will be stretching
southward across the eastern CONUS along the east coast in lee of
the southern appalachians. With that, the fcst initializes with
decreasing diurnal pops along the high terrain, with further drying
expected on Sunday as the wedge builds across the region leading
to below climo pops outside of the mtns, near above climo in.

Additional drying continues into Monday as an approaching upper
trof over the upper midwest amplifies shortwave ridging along the
appalachians, which will turn reinforce the wedge of high pressure.

In addition, guidance favors the south fl system referenced above
to move northeast offshore of the carolina coastlines by Monday
morning. Flow around said system will also work to enhance the
southern extent of the wedge and associated dry air. By Tuesday
guidance tends to diverge a bit more with regards to timing of
both tropical systems and the approaching upper trof and associated
surface front. The GFS is a bit slower with TC harvey's northward
migration as it favors a deeper upper trof and a slow yet robust
surface front. The ECMWF on the other hand has a less amplified
upper trof over the oh valley by Tuesday night, with the front well
northward and possibly stalled thanks to a more northern position
of harvey. All in all, conditions look surprisingly dry Tuesday
through Wednesday as well across northeast ga and the western
carolinas aside for possible mtn convection and stratiform upglide
precipitation along the periphery of the wedge front. Therefore
pops will remain below climo levels Monday through Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain below climo as well given abundant sky
cover thanks to the persistence of the wedged airmass.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
At kclt and elsewhere: cold front will continue its slow progress towards the
southeast of the area. Currently, front is south of the kgsp to kclt
area with showers continuing along it, including near kand. These
storms will continue to move with the front and weaken diurnally.

With fropa, winds will shift to be northerly and moisture will
decline. Generally light northerly flow behind the front with very
little chance for convection will persist through Thursday. Fog
chances decline as well with kavl the only TAF site that may see
some fog. A moist layer in forecast soundings around 5000 ft. Agl
will results in sct to bkn clouds overnight and into tomorrow
afternoon.

Outlook: drier air will move in behind the front on Thursday, with
only some isolated mountain showers expected in the afternoon. Low
level moisture may make a return toward the blue ridge over the
weekend.

Confidence table...

02-08z 08-14z 14-20z 20-00z
kclt high 100% high 97% med 69% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl med 68% high 84% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 46 mi60 min SE 2.9 G 2.9 78°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 74 mi20 min Calm G 2.9 80°F 1010.8 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC18 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair76°F70°F82%1011.2 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmSW4SW4SW4SW4SW3SW5SW5W6W9W8W93W6W8W6SW7W9W10E5NE3CalmNE4Calm
1 day agoS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW45W74S7NW7SW7W10SW10SW9SW6S7SW7S5SW3
2 days agoCalmCalmSE5CalmCalmCalmE3E3E3E3SE3E54SE5CalmCalmE7CalmSE6E5CalmCalmS7SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.