Thursday, May23, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Lowndesville, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:33PM Thursday May 23, 2019 1:50 AM EDT (05:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:57PMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowndesville, SC
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location: 34.23, -82.66     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 230252
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1052 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Broad high pressure will persist over the southeast through
the rest of the week, limiting daily shower and thunderstorm
activity and keeping temperatures well above normal. The ridge
of high pressure will strengthen over the weekend, resulting
in near-record high temperatures each day.

Near term through Thursday
As of 10:45pm edt Wednesday: thunder is absent, but some widely
scattered showers remain, and look likely to continue at about the
same level, becoming lighter after 6z. Wedge-like boundary retreats
northeastward this evening, with boundary layer moisture increasing
slightly. As some weak upper vorticity passes by on Thursday, there
will be some chance for diurnal showers or thunderstorms, primarily
over the mountains.

Some changes will occur over the next 24 hours with our upper
ridge anticyclone getting gradually pushed down by a passing short
wave. Sfc high pressure will move out of a favorable location to
maintain our weak wedge, so as the high moves off the mid-atlantic
coast we should bring the low level flow around more southeasterly.

This will act to keep a shower chance near the escarpment probably
all night long, with another cloud deck forming by daybreak
Thursday. The aforementioned short wave will pass overhead in the
afternoon and should serve to move scattered convection out of the
mtns and out over the piedmont of the carolinas. The improving
westerly flow with this feature will eliminate much of the low cloud
cover while the downslope flow east of the mtns brings temperatures
well up into the 80s.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
As of 215 pm edt Wednesday: the late may, likely week-long, heat
wave will get started in earnest on Friday across the southeast.

Following a shortwave moving over the southeastern ridge axis and
off the east coast on Thursday night, stronger upper ridging will
build back over the region from the west through the day on Friday.

Northwesterly downsloping flow may aid warming of the airmass east
of the mountains during daytime heating Friday, but this could also
lead to some dew point mixing and keep heat index values from
getting too oppressive. Anticipate plenty of mid 90s high
temperatures east of the mountains, but with dewpoints possibly
bottoming out in the upper 50s during peak heating. Warm mid-level
temperatures should keep any ridge top convection quite isolated.

The amplifying ridge will build overhead through Saturday as a
pacific coast trough sharpens up. Temperatures will be comparable to
Friday but perhaps with a bit less dewpoint mixing to yield more 95
to 100 heat index values southeast of i-85. Ridge top convection
should once again be limited to isolated to scattered activity,
mainly along the northern blue ridge mountains.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 220 pm edt Wednesday: the eastern ridge will flatten a bit on
Sunday as mid-level shortwaves ride east through the ohio valley,
but this appears to have very little impact on the 591+ dm 500 mb
heights likely still covering the forecast area. With strong
insolation and little to no precipitation chances given the largely
capped profiles, maximum temperatures could well reach the upper 90s
in a few spots, especially along and southeast of i-85. Still
anticipate just enough dew point mixing to keep heat index values
out of the advisory range, but a bit more 100+ values may creep into
the picture in the lower piedmont. Any forcing riding over the ridge
should confine any deep convection to mid-atlantic locations north
of the region Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

As the shortwaves topping the ridge move off the east coast on
Monday, the eastern 500 mb ridge will become resurgent yet again.

Similar mid to upper 90s MAX temps will be observed, along with
mainly mountain, isolated, late day convection. The upper ridge will
persist over the southeast on Tuesday before migrating off the east
coast on Wednesday as the western trough is finally on the move.

Deep layer southwesterly flow will permit slightly better moisture
to return to the southern appalachians by mid week, and scattered
thunderstorms will may develop across the mountains by Wednesday
afternoon. The heat wave will continue through the period, with
maximum temperatures running some 15 degrees above climo.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
At kclt and elsewhere: some isolated showers and thunder this
evening have a limited chance of reaching any individual location,
but will be more numerous west of the kclt aerodrome. Winds have
been easterly to northeasterly and are expected to become southerly
tonight and then southwesterly Thursday morning as cold-air damming
is disrupted with a warm frontal passage. Warm front also brings in
some moisture which will lead to some low ceilings in the morning
down to MVFR and possibly ifr. Models have some disagreement as to
how low CIGS will go overnight. Slight increase in moisture behind
warm front will lead to some chance for afternoon thunderstorms on
Thursday, primarily over the mountains.

Outlook: morning mountain valley fog will be possible through the
weekend. After Thursday afternoon, diurnal convective chances will
be limited due to developing upper level high pressure.

Confidence table...

03-09z 09-15z 15-21z 21-00z
kclt med 66% high 94% med 79% high 100%
kgsp med 79% med 73% med 79% high 100%
kavl med 66% low 56% high 100% high 100%
khky med 77% high 85% high 81% high 100%
kgmu med 75% med 71% med 79% high 100%
kand low 56% low 58% high 89% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 46 mi71 min SSE 4.1 G 13 78°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 74 mi31 min SSE 8.9 G 13 75°F 1023 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC18 mi55 minE 610.00 miA Few Clouds72°F68°F87%1022.1 hPa

Wind History from AND (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE4NE5NE5NE5NE4NE9NE8E11E11NE9E8NE7NE12
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmN4N3NE4E65CalmNE5NW8--3W7NW5CalmCalmCalmNE3NE4NE3
2 days agoSE4S6S5S3SW5CalmS4SW6W6W5W4SW5SW8W10SW9SW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.