Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lowndesville, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:25PM Saturday November 17, 2018 1:11 PM EST (18:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:33PMMoonset 1:19AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowndesville, SC
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location: 34.23, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 171758
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1258 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
A gradual warming trend will develop over the weekend ahead of a
weak cold front approaching from the west. The front will move
through the area on Monday through Monday night, with moisture
mainly limited to the mountains. A dry, reinforcing cold front will
arrive from the northwest on Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
923 am est update... Temperatures slow to rebound from widespread
lows in the 20s mountains to 30s piedmont so far this morning. Have
adjusted highs today a couple of degrees cooler to match
trends latest guidance with highs today topping out in the 50s to
near 60. Any remaining valley fog should burn off in the next couple
of hours due to full sunshine.

A very nice near-term is in store for the fcst area. Upper level
flow remains nearly zonal and benign while a broad area of hipres
develops across the mid atl and ridges down the east coast. The
p grad will remain loose which will keep winds weak and variable
generally NE ly to SE ly. The latest NAM soundings show dry air thru
the column due to compressional warming with no good chance of cu
development nor mlvl moist adv. So... Expect mainly sunny skies with
passing streams of ci. With steep inversions trapping llvl
moisture... There could be isol fg fzfg issues this morning across
the mtn valleys, upstate, nc piedmont... Especially near larger
lakes. However, any fg that does develop shud be shallow and burn
off rather quickly after sunrise. MAX temps will return to near
normal levels in very good insol while mins once again drop below
normal in very good rad cooling conds overnight which may lead to
another bout of patchy fg arnd daybreak.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 300 am est Saturday: deep-layer wsw flow will continue over
the area on Sunday as weak surface high pressure persists over the
region. With southwesterly winds in the surface to 850 mb layer,
temperatures will continue to warm back toward climo values.

A broad eastern trough will start to carve out on Monday, with
associated surface reflections moving northeast along a frontal
boundary west of the appalachians. Temperatures will finally rebound
to at or above climo in the continued warm advection. A narrow zone
of improving moisture will approach the spine of the southern
appalachians late Monday to warrant isolated to scattered rain
shower chances there late Monday afternoon. A leading lobe of upper
vorticity will cross the region Monday night as the surface cold
front makes a push into and across the region. This boundary will be
accompanied mainly by westerly flow and a very narrow zone of
slightly deeper moisture. Any nighttime pops will probably be
confined to the western nc mountains. Post-fropa northwest flow
moisture early Tuesday morning may be able to wring out additional
light upslope precipitation. Profiles could support a mixover to
light freezing rain drizzle along a few of the highest and colder
ridge tops, but ptypes will not be clear cut in this northwest flow
scenario where a little instability could also be present. At any
rate, wintry precipitation should not pose much of a threat in the
higher terrain, and conditions will remain dry east of the mountains
through daybreak Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 315 am est Saturday: a trailing shortwave embedded in the
broad eastern trough will pass mainly north of the area on Tuesday.

Cold advection will kick in, but with some downslope warming,
especially over upstate sc where maxes should remain in the lower
60s.

Wednesday will be the last day of good model agreement, with deep-
layer NW flow atop the area as heights begin to fall over the
southern plains. Dry surface high pressure will set up over the
appalachians and then likely migrate to a more favorable damming
location over the northeast by Thursday. Temperatures will be one to
two categories cooler in the resulting thickness trough.

The GFS brings a southern stream wave eastward across the gulf coast
states on Thursday, while the ecwmf develops shortwave ridging from
the appalachians westward. The discrepancies deepen on Friday as the
gfs maintains more zonal flow and the ecm camp features very
prominent height falls across the ms river valley. Forecast
confidence will thus remain low for the late week holiday period.

There should at least be increasing clouds through Friday with a
southeasterly fetch likely bringing shallow atlantic moisture back
to the blue ridge. In a slight nod to the ECMWF naefs mean, will
feature Friday light rain pops in the slight chance range for now.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
At kclt and elsewhere: sfc high pressure building into the
region with high confidence inVFR CIGS vsbys through at least 06z
and light winds overall. MVFR or lower fog is possible between 06z
and 14z with a 20 percent chance of ifr or lower vsby at any taf
site. One exception being mountain valley sites such as kavl where
there is a 70 percent chance of ifr or lower CIGS vsbys during this
time frame. Return toVFR expected between 13z (MVFR fog) and 15z
(ifr or lower fog). Return flow behind high pressure pushing
offshore may support scattered high MVFR to lowVFR clouds around
18z.

Outlook: potential for late night early morning mountain valley fog
and near area lakes beginning continues into early next week.

Otherwise, expect mostlyVFR and light winds.

Confidence table...

18-24z 00-06z 06-12z 12-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 95% med 75% high 91%
kavl high 100% high 100% med 72% med 77%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 87% high 91%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 95%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 46 mi31 min N 2.9 G 5.1 57°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 74 mi51 min E 1.9 G 6 57°F 1023 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC18 mi15 minENE 410.00 miFair61°F35°F38%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from AND (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6SW6SW10SW5CalmCalmSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE8E5NE5NE4
1 day agoCalmCalmSW6SW6SW6SW7W19
G26
W12W16
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W12W9W11SW10W6W5SW4W7SW5CalmW9W5W6W7W11
2 days agoNE9
G18
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NE8NE10NE12NE13
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NE12NE19
G30
NE8CalmE10E19
G27
W3N3NE7NE5NE11NE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.