Friday, November17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oakwood, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:30PM Friday November 17, 2017 7:54 PM EST (00:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:12AMMoonset 5:25PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakwood, GA
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location: 34.24, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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Fxus62 kffc 180001
afdffc
area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
701 pm est Fri nov 17 2017

Update
Latest guidance coming in shows winds a little higher than
previous model runs. Have therefore extended the wind advisory
southward to a franklin to peachtree city to athens to
danielsville line.

Prev discussion issued 254 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
short term tonight through Saturday night ...

surface high pressure continues to build eastward into the atlantic
through morning. The upper level ridge will flatten overnight as
well, allowing a short wave to trek across the gulf coast states
through the day tomorrow. As the surface high gives way to an
approaching cold front tomorrow evening, return flow will set up
tomorrow, bringing increasing moisture ahead of the front. Mostly
clear skies this afternoon and evening will give way to mid and high
clouds overnight which should keep overnight lows warmer than this
morning, and closer to climatological normals for this time of year.

Clouds will increase tomorrow, with the cloud deck lowering by late
morning. Rain chances will increase tomorrow afternoon ahead of the
front, and while there is enough shear, instability is minimal and
expect any isolated thunderstorms to be elevated and generally in
the 00-06 hours on Sunday. The gradient ahead of the front is quite
sharp, and expect gusty southwest winds across the area by late
morning tomorrow. Higher elevations of the north georgia mountains
will have wind gusts that reach wind advisory criteria beginning
late Saturday morning. See atlnpwffc for more information. These
gusty southwest winds will bring warmer air across the area, and
even with the additional cloud cover, expect afternoon high
temperatures to moderate to near this afternoon or slightly warmer.

The front pushes through the area Saturday night with rain tapering
off from northwest to southeast after 06z.

Atwell
long term Sunday through Friday ...

no large wholesale changes made to fcst with latest guidance
blend. Still some uncertainty in the latter half of the week due
to slight discrepancies on extent of gulf moisture and trough
influence to the west sw, so have played mainly slight chance
pops to central ga and parts of northeast. Previous discussion
follows...

baker
prev discussion... Issued 455 am est Fri nov 17 2017
long term Saturday night through Thursday ...

the beginning of the long term period starts as a cold front makes
its way into far NW ga driven by a deep surface low pressure
system located around lake ontario. A line of showers will most
likely accompany this frontal system but what little rain that is
expected will mostly be contained to the NW of the i-85 corridor.

Mucape is low along the FROPA but not non-existent, and low-level
convergence and higher shear values leads me to believe very scattered
thunderstorms may be possible. However, the vertical thermodynamic
profile suggests updrafts in any potential thunderstorms should
be relatively shallow and non-severe.

A sharp pressure gradient will mean winds will be rather strong
ahead and along the frontal passage with wind gusts expected to
reach 20-30 mph on Saturday afternoon and evening. Localized
higher amounts will be possible in the higher elevations of the
north georgia mountains where wind gusts above 40 mph may be
possible. Conditions will need to be monitored to determine
whether a wind advisory will be needed.

Cooler and dryer air will make its way into the area behind the
front on Sunday as an area of high pressure meanders across the
area through Tuesday evening.

Model solutions begin to diverge at the end of the long term
period, as a rossby wave train begins to affect the upper level
jet stream pattern. The euro elected to form a cut-off low
pressure system over the gulf that would bring higher cloud cover
and rain chances to the area, however, i'm currently more inclined
to lean more towards the slightly more consistent GFS which
instead forms a deep positively tilted trough over the gulf and
keeps the more significant moisture further south. Therefore, have
gone with no more than chance pops until models come to better
agreement.

Thiem

Aviation
00z update...

vfr ceilings to start this TAF set but expecting MVFR ceilings
toward the end as the next frontal system pushes through the
area.VFR ceilings will stay around through most of the day sat
but will see some MVFR reading around by 00z Sun and continuing
across the area through 06z sun. Precip expected to push into the
atl area just after sunset as the front moves through. Only
expecting showers as there is very little instability with this
system. Vsbys will also stay in theVFR range until the precip
moves in when we will see some MVFR readings as well. Winds are
out of the SE but will turn to the SW and eventually the nw
through the end of the TAF period. Wind speeds will stay 10kt or
less tonight then begin to increase during the day sat. Will
eventually see winds in the 18-20kt range gusting to 35kt by the
end of the atl TAF period.

Atl confidence... 00z update...

confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

Preliminary point temps pops
Athens 42 68 43 55 0 20 60 5
atlanta 47 69 42 52 0 20 60 0
blairsville 40 62 36 47 0 50 80 0
cartersville 46 68 41 51 0 40 70 0
columbus 47 73 46 57 0 10 60 5
gainesville 44 65 42 52 0 30 60 0
macon 43 73 46 58 0 5 40 5
rome 46 69 41 51 0 50 80 0
peachtree city 43 70 42 54 0 20 60 0
vidalia 47 74 52 62 0 0 40 10

Ffc watches warnings advisories
Wind advisory from 10 am Saturday to 3 am est Sunday for the
following zones: banks... Barrow... Bartow... Carroll... Catoosa...

chattooga... Cherokee... Clarke... Clayton... Cobb... Coweta... Dade...

dawson... Dekalb... Douglas... Fannin... Fayette... Floyd... Forsyth...

gilmer... Gordon... Gwinnett... Hall... Haralson... Heard... Henry...

jackson... Lumpkin... Madison... Murray... Newton... North fulton...

oconee... Paulding... Pickens... Polk... Rockdale... South fulton...

towns... Union... Walker... Walton... White... Whitfield.

Short term... 01
long term... .17
aviation... 01


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gainesville, Gilmer Memorial Airport, GA7 mi61 minSE 310.00 miFair55°F37°F51%1019.7 hPa
Gwinnett County Airport-Briscoe Field, GA18 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair51°F42°F71%1019.8 hPa
Winder, Winder-Barrow Airport, GA23 mi59 minSE 310.00 miFair52°F42°F72%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from GVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W5NW7NW3NW4NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4E9E74S56SE8SE3SE5SE3SE3
1 day agoS3S3SW5W3W5W6W5W5W6W4W6W7W7NW6NW7NW7NW7W86NW10NW5NW6W6W8
2 days agoE5E5E4E4E4NE3E4E5E5E4E3SE3E4E8E76CalmS5CalmN3CalmSW3S3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Peachtree City, GA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Atlanta, GA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.