Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 12:20 AM   Moonset 9:52 AM

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FXUS62 KFFC 292340 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 740 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New 00Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms will return on Tuesday as a shortwave trough traverses the area.

- A couple of stronger storms are possible, though a significant severe threat is not expected.

Surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and ridging aloft keep the area dry through the remainder of the day into tonight. That will begin to change in short order, however, as a shortwave trough approaches the area by tomorrow morning. An ongoing broken line of showers and thunderstorms will initially push into northwest Georgia during the predawn hours Tuesday and progress eastward through midday. Given fairly limited morning instability, CAMs generally support the notion of a gradual weakening trend through late morning.

By afternoon, recovering SBCAPE should support the redevelopment of additional scattered and thunderstorms. HRRR mean SBCAPE looks to max out over 1000 J/kg in Middle Georgia during the afternoon, potentially supportive of a few stronger thunderstorms. Weak shear and overall dynamics will limit the severe threat, but an isolated storm could potentially reach marginally severe limits and produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps small hail. Generally a quarter to half on inch rainfall totals are probable, though locally higher totals are possible within heavier thunderstorms. Activity will then gradually wane and depart eastward by the evening as the wave exits east.

RW

LONG TERM
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Very warm and mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late in the week into the weekend.

The departing shortwave will give way to upper level ridging through the remainder of the work week. Other than isolated lingering showers and thunderstorms in the SE on Wed, this ridge should usher in a couple of days of dry weather. This will also be the warmest stretch of the long term period, with temperatures rising well into 80s across most non-mountainous areas. In fact, some locations will rise above 90 degrees (with the best chance on Thursday afternoon near and S of Macon). These highs will will be about 8 to 12 degrees above normal.

The ridge will begin to break down on Friday as a short wave moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The combination of the approaching dynamic forcing and the warm, moist air in place will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the area (with the best chances across N and N central GA. With the fairly weak dynamic energy, thunderstorm activity is expected to remain mostly diurnal in nature, with widespread organized thunderstorms not currently anticipated. High temperatures will still be about 5 degrees above normal.

SEC

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR ceilings to start this TAF set with MVFR ceilings and precipitation moving in around sunrise Tue. Will see showers in the morning with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. VSBYs should stay in the VFR to MVFR range with the precip in the area but could see a brief period of IFR VSBYs with any stronger storms Fri afternoon. Winds will start out of the SE then turn to the SW around sunrise with the precip pushing in. Wind speeds will stay in the 5-10kt range with some higher gust in and around any afternoon storms.

//ATL Confidence
00Z Update
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 60 79 58 84 / 0 70 40 0 Atlanta 62 77 60 84 / 30 80 20 0 Blairsville 57 71 54 79 / 40 90 40 0 Cartersville 61 76 57 83 / 60 90 10 0 Columbus 65 82 62 87 / 10 70 10 0 Gainesville 61 75 59 84 / 20 80 30 0 Macon 62 82 61 86 / 0 70 30 10 Rome 62 77 57 84 / 70 90 10 0 Peachtree City 62 79 58 84 / 20 70 20 0 Vidalia 62 86 65 87 / 0 40 30 20

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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