Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Porters Neck, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:25PM Friday March 22, 2019 2:56 AM EDT (06:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:25PMMoonset 7:29AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 906 Pm Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers late this evening and early morning, then a slight chance of showers late.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas diminishing to 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot, then 2 ft after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely through the night.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
AMZ200 906 Pm Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will move across the waters late this evening to around midnight. A reinforcing cold front will move across the waters Friday evening and overnight. High pressure will ridge in from the northwest Saturday and move overhead during Sunday. Low pressure along a cold front will affect the area Monday night and Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Porters Neck, NC
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location: 34.29, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 220443
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1243 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front with widely scattered showers will push off the
coast during the early morning hours. A dry cold front is
expected to move across the area this evening. Dry weather and
seasonable temps under high pressure will prevail this weekend
with Sunday morning the coolest with upper 30s to around 40 for
lows. Low pressure and a cold front will spread clouds and rain
into the carolinas late Monday into Tuesday, followed again by
high pressure through the mid week period.

Near term through Saturday
As of 900 pm Thursday... Decent mid-level S W and resulting uvvs
is working with any available moisture along with several
hundred CAPE advertised by model soundings to produce widely
scattered light showers with isolated and brief flare ups of
moderate rw. Initially the activity was not reaching the ground
via 88d returns and sfc obs underneath. However, 88d returns
now pushing across the western portions of the ilm CWA is
reaching the ground. Some minor modifications to pops, skies and
qpf for the remainder of the evening and into the pre-dawn fri
hrs.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .

As of 300 pm Thursday... A strong shortwave diving across eastern
kentucky will move across north carolina this evening. Cold
temperatures developed aloft this morning as a first shortwave moved
overhead -- this second shortwave will bring in even colder mid and
upper level temps, as low as -27c at 500 mb and -8c at 700 mb. Steep
lapse rates beneath this cold pool aloft will combine with meager
low-level moisture to produce an area of convective showers that
should sweep east across the area between 8 pm and midnight. Better
rain chances should exist across north carolina beneath the colder
mid-level temps, and there's even some potential the showers could
be accompanied by gusty winds as CAPE 200-300 j kg and very steep
lapse rates work in tandem with a dry sub-cloud layer. Cloud-top
temperatures via forecast soundings appear to be too warm for a
significant lightning threat, so i'll keep the precip character as
just "showers."
i looked carefully at GFS and NAM model output looking for signs of
a stratospheric intrusion that might transform tonight's convective
cluster into something more sinister, but couldn't find enough of a
signal to raise concern. Mid-level water vapor loops of the
shortwave also show no sign of significant drying that might
indicate such an intrusion is developing. Models have continued to
increase the potential of measurable rain tonight north of florence
and across much of southeastern north carolina, and my pops have
been raised to 30-50 percent for this area. Much warmer mid-level
temperatures and weaker lapse rates south of florence and myrtle
beach should preclude any rain chances there.

Cool advection behind tonight's front shouldn't be particularly
strong, but steady winds should keep low temps in the lower to
middle 40s. Skies should clear after midnight tonight and continue
through Friday night as high pressure builds in from the west. A
secondary dry cold front will arrive Friday evening, veering winds
northerly and bringing in a chillier airmass that will continue into
the weekend.

Short term Saturday night
As of 300 pm Thursday... A reinforcing shot of cool air will
arrive in deep NW flow on the front end of high as it builds
into the area. This will maintain temps slightly below normal,
although bright march sunshine should help take the edge off as
we progress through the first few days of spring.

The northerly flow will lighten up through Sat night as high
pressure shifts closer over the carolinas and ridge builds
overhead. The light to calm winds and clear skies, will lead to
ideal radiational cooling. With such a dry air mass in place,
expect temps to drop out quickly Sat eve and head down toward
the mid 30s for lows with typical cold spots dropping near or
below freezing.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... After a cool start, air mass will
modify through Sun into Mon as high pressure shifts off the
coast and a deep s-sw flow begins to develop. On Monday, a
shortwave will dig down as broad mid to upper trough pushes
east. This will push the cold front south, but will also help to
produce or deepen wave of low pressure along it. The associated
sfc low will move across the southeast late Mon into tues as a
cold front drops farther down from the north. This will spread
clouds and rain across the area on Monday, with some heavier
rain possible as the low crosses the local area Mon night. The
cold front will drop south by tues, but shortwave will ride
through which may keep some lingering clouds and pcp in the
forecast through Tuesday with cooler northerly flow in place.

Dry high pressure will build into the carolinas through the
middle of next week with temps remaining on the cool side to
start and slowly heading back toward normal by thurs.

Temps Sun night will be 45 to 50 as dewpoints rise with a
southerly return flow in place. Mon will be the warmest day with
temps in 70s, but a return to below normal temps will in a
cooler northerly flow behind cold front tues and wed. Could see
another chilly morning early next wed.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
As of 05z... Shra are expected to be east of the coastal
terminals prior to the onset of this TAF period.VFR conditions
will prevail as subsidence takes hold in the wake of the exiting
shortwave. Main forecast issue pertains to gusty westerly winds
today at all terminals. Gusts to 25 kt possible as a result of
mixing. Winds will settle ahead of a dry front by this evening.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions expected late tonight through
early next week as high pressure builds over the area. Winds
will diminish through the weekend as this occurs. Possible MVFR
early next week as next frontal system impacts the area.

Marine
As of 915 pm Thursday... SCA has been raised for the ilm sc
waters for the remainder of this evening and overnight thru
early Fri evening. SCA remains in effect for the ilm nc waters
into Fri evening.

The sfc pressure gradient tightens after the passage of the
mid-level S W trof and it's associated cold front during the
pre-dawn Fri hrs. This tightened gradient will persist thru
daytime Fri morning and relax-some Fri aftn prior to the next
sfc cold frontal passage early Fri evening. Winds ahead and
after the 2nd cfp will be borderline SCA but will continue to
advertise the current SCA for the ilm nc waters. And like
tonight, it may be borderline for the sc waters. Significant
seas will have a limited fetch due to the wind field primarily
offshore. The exception will be for westerly winds (slightly
better fetch) tonight and again Fri aftn which will result in
hier seas from CAPE fear south to little river inlet. A 10+
second period underlying easterly swell will continue but it's
trend will be subsiding.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .

As of 300 pm Thursday... Deepening low pressure in eastern
virginia is maintaining a healthy westerly wind across the
carolinas today. A cold front will sweep east across the waters
late this evening, veering wind directions northwesterly after
midnight with speeds actually increasing a bit. Wind directions
should turn back to the west again Friday ahead of a second cold
front. This front will reach the area Friday night and should
turn directions northerly. This spells a long period of
uncomfortable or even hazardous marine weather conditions for
area boaters with breezy to strong winds and large seas
continuing.

The small craft advisory has been extended out through Friday
evening for the CAPE fear area waters as strong westerly winds and
continued backswell from storminess over the past 36 hours will
maintain the potential of 6+ foot seas. Conditions along the grand
strand will be only marginally better as west-northwest winds 15-20
kt and 4-5 foot seas will continue tonight into Friday.

A reinforcing push of cooler air will keep seas elevated into
very early Saturday morning, but then a decent drop will occur
through Saturday in diminishing northerly flow as high pressure
shifts closer overhead. Seas 2 to 4 ft with maybe a few 5 fters
early Sat morning, will diminish to under 3 ft by aftn and 2 ft
or less Sat night through early mon. A light return flow will
develop Sun afternoon as the center of the high shifts off the
coast. The gradient will tighten on Monday as wave of low
pressure develops on cold front dropping down from the north.

This will help to push both winds and seas up through late mon
into tues, initially with increasing southerly winds and then
stiff northerly winds on the back end as cold front drops south
of waters through tues.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for amz254-
256.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for amz250-252.

Near term... Dch tra
short term... Rgz
long term... Rgz
aviation... Srp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi57 min W 8 G 15 51°F 56°F1008.6 hPa (+0.0)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi57 min 56°F3 ft
WLON7 12 mi57 min 50°F 55°F1008.9 hPa (+0.3)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi49 min NW 21 G 29 55°F 58°F1008.2 hPa
41108 42 mi57 min 59°F4 ft
41064 43 mi49 min NW 21 G 27 56°F 60°F1006.6 hPa
41159 43 mi57 min 60°F6 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC9 mi64 minW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F44°F80%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
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Fri -- 03:06 AM EDT     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:07 AM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:25 PM EDT     -1.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:31 PM EDT     4.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.70.3-0.7-1.1-0.90.11.534.14.54.33.42.10.8-0.3-1-0.9-0.11.22.744.74.74.1

Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:53 AM EDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:51 AM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:13 PM EDT     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:20 PM EDT     4.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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31.70.5-0.4-0.7-0.20.92.23.44.24.443.22.10.9-0.1-0.6-0.30.61.93.14.14.64.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.