Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Porters Neck, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:04PM Thursday December 13, 2018 6:20 PM EST (23:20 UTC) Moonrise 11:41AMMoonset 10:48PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 323 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through late Saturday night...
Tonight..E winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight. A chance of showers late.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely in the morning, then showers with isolated tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Isolated tstms. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers with isolated tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 323 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure approaching from the gulf coast will move up through the southeast Friday through this weekend with deteriorating marine conditions. High pressure will build in from the west early next week, remaining over the waters through mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Porters Neck, NC
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location: 34.29, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 132016
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
316 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure approaching from the gulf will bring significant
rain Friday into Saturday with several inches of rain possible.

High pressure will build in from the west early next week,
remaining over the carolinas through Wednesday. The next storm
system will begin to affect the area on Thursday.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 pm Thursday... High pressure will shift farther off
shore through tonight as clouds thicken and rain begins to
spread across the area from the south to southwest, as a warm
front approaches. Not expecting any pcp before midnight, but
clouds will lower and thicken through this evening. Moisture
profiles and sounding data show a sharp increase in moisture
after midnight with column becoming rapidly saturated in
increasing on shore flow to southerly flow from the sfc through
the low to mid levels of the atmosphere. Overall, expect the
main onset of pcp to come around daybreak with more moderate to
heavier rain spreading over the area from the sw. Temps will be
moderated by clouds and pcp and increasing WAA by morning.

Dewpoint temps will increase up to 20 degrees from near 30 this
afternoon up to near 50 by daybreak fri. Expect low temps, in
the mid 40s most places, to occur around midnight, with a rise
to around 50 or so by daybreak fri.

Short term Friday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Thursday... Flash flood watch in effect for the entire
forecast area from Friday morning through midday Saturday. Unsettled
wx still progged for the short term period with periods of moderate
to heavy rain expected. Expect strong warm air advection and
increasing moisture Friday ahead of an approaching low pressure
system. It may not rain the entire day night Friday, however high
rainfall rates and 3hr and 6hr flash flood guidance around 2-4
inches are expected to lead to flash flooding in some areas.

Maintained mention of heavy rain and isolated tstms as well. Spc
continues to highlight the area in a marginal risk for severe
weather. Moisture shear profiles are definitely favorable, however
instability will be quite limited. High temps range from near 60
well inland to the upr 60s near the coast.

The moderate to at times heavy rain continues into Friday night,
especially during the evening. Any lingering rain into Sat will be
lighter and mainly confined to eastern areas. As far as storm total
amounts... All guidance continues to show mainly 2-5 inches on
average for the entire cwa, with locally higher amounts possible. If
this pans out then wilmington will easily make it to the 100 inch
mark for the year (see climate section below).

Drying trend continues into Saturday night and Sunday with the main
frontal boundary and upr-level low pushing offshore. High temps
Sunday near 60.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... A quiet start to the work week as high
pressure builds in behind exiting storm system. Upper low will
be lifting away from the area with a deep NW flow of dry air
making its way into the area Sun night through mon. Pcp water
values diminish from near three quarters of an inch down to less
than a quarter of an inch by tues. Temps will cool to near or
just below normal by tues and wed. Expect a warmup as air mass
modifies Wed into thurs as return flow develops around high
pressure shifting off shore and next storm system approaches
the area. The ECMWF is much more bullish with clouds and pcp
with this system, for next Thursday, but the GFS shows an almost
dry front moving through late Thursday.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 18z... High confidence inVFR through the remainder of the day
on Monday with light and variable winds and high clouds remaining in
place throughout the day. Warm air advection will begin with
easterly sfc winds developing after 00z allowing the column to
moisten. Cloud cover will increase and CIGS will begin to fall and
continue to do so through the end of the forecast period. Low-levels
will saturate much quicker than the mid-levels which are
exceptionally dry at this time, so expect an ovc upper-level deck
with a few sct clouds in the low-levels. Onset of precip will likely
occur late in the period around 12z Fri (as the remainder of the
column saturates) from SW to NE with a transition fromVFR to MVFR
and (quickly) to ifr. Expect all areas to be in or approaching ifr
by the end of the forecast period with -ra shra.

Extended outlook... Ifr flight restrictions will remain in place
after the end of the forecast period. Much of Sat will be MVFR
becomingVFR. SunVFR with some isolated shra and MVFR.VFR for the
beginning of next week.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... High pressure will shift farther off
shore as warm front moves up from the south to southeast by
daybreak fri. This will produce an increase in gradient winds
with on shore, SE flow up around 15 kts or so by daybreak fri.

Seas will ramp up quickly from less 3 ft this afternoon up to 3
to 6 ft right around daybreak fri. Expect to reach small craft
advisory conditions at this time.

Short term Friday through Sunday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Winds gradually increase Friday morning
as the pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching low
pressure system. Still expecting small craft advisory conditions
to commence by Friday morning over the coastal waters, likely
lasting through at least Saturday evening. Wind gusts up to
25-30 kt Friday Friday night. Seas up to 7-9 ft out 20 nm.

Expect improving wx conditions by Saturday and Sunday as an
upper-level low pressure system lifts northeast of the area. The
sfc pressure gradient relaxes ever so slightly, but will still
be conducive to 15 to 20 kt winds both days. Sub-small craft
advisory conditions then for early to mid next week.

Long term Sunday night through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Expect improving marine conditions sun
night through mid week next week as high pressure builds in
behind exiting storm system winds will veer around from w-nw to
northerly by Mon night on the front end of the high. Expect
winds to diminish to less than winds will initially be up to 15
to 20 kts Sun night but should be 10 to 15 kts through the rest
of the period. Seas will subside slowly through Sun night into
Monday, remaining below SCA thresholds through the period.

Climate
As of 300 pm Thursday... Wilmington's annual rainfall total
still stands at 97.75 inches as of Thursday afternoon. Our
latest rainfall forecast for the storm system this weekend will
range from 2 to 5 inches. This should be enough to push our
annual total over 100 inches! Details are available at
https: weather.Gov ilm raceto100

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Flash flood watch from Friday morning through Saturday
afternoon for scz017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.

Nc... Flash flood watch from Friday morning through Saturday
afternoon for ncz087-096-099-105>110.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Friday to noon est Sunday for
amz250-252-254-256.

Near term... Rgz
short term... Mas
long term... Rgz
aviation... Rgz 21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi50 min ENE 7 G 8
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi72 min E 7.8 G 9.7 55°F 55°F1026.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi50 min 55°F1 ft
WLON7 12 mi50 min 50°F 46°F1026.5 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi72 min ESE 9.7 G 12 60°F 64°F1026.2 hPa
41108 42 mi50 min 55°F2 ft
41064 43 mi72 min E 3.9 G 7.8 59°F 67°F1025.7 hPa
41159 43 mi50 min 67°F2 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC9 mi27 minE 410.00 miFair49°F34°F56%1026.9 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S3CalmS3CalmCalmNE5E5E4
1 day agoW4W4CalmSW3CalmSW5SW7W7W4W4CalmCalmW3W4W4Calm35E95E5E4NE3Calm
2 days agoN6N8N11N13N11N7N9N7
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Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
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Thu -- 04:45 AM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:26 AM EST     3.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:35 PM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:48 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:56 PM EST     2.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.31.610.50.40.71.21.92.63.13.53.532.31.50.80.40.40.71.21.82.42.8

Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:35 AM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:42 AM EST     3.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:20 PM EST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.82.21.510.60.611.82.63.33.63.73.42.92.21.50.90.60.71.222.73.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.