Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Porters Neck, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:11PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 12:14 PM EDT (16:14 UTC) Moonrise 6:13AMMoonset 6:44PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1037 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Rest of today..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..NW winds 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SE winds 10 kt or less, becoming ne 10 kt or less after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 9 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1037 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Hurricane jose will spin nearly stationary off the mid-atlantic coast the next several days. Winds will remain relatively light across the local waters this week as the pressure pattern remains flat, but seas will build late in the week as hurricane maria approaches the bahamas, and se swell moves onto the east coast. Marie is expected to pass offshore of the carolinas next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Porters Neck, NC
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location: 34.29, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201433
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1030 am edt Wed sep 20 2017

Synopsis
Disturbances aloft will bring isolated showers today through
Friday. High pressure will build in from the north for the
remainder of the week while jose spins nearly stationary off the
mid-atlantic coast. Dangerous hurricane maria will bring
increasing southeast swell and strengthening rip currents to the
carolinas beginning late week. Maria is expected to move north
and offshore of the carolinas early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1030 am Wednesday... Latest 12z WRF in agreement with current
forecast in that pop trend will not follow the normal diurnal trend.

Rain chances (though remaining slim overall) rise this evening after
peak heating height falls and PVA impinge upon the region. May also
add a degree or two to highs.

As of 515 am Wednesday...

the westerly flow aloft will transition to a bit of troughing
later today and extend into Thursday morning. At the surface a
weak trough will move across this evening which may kick off a
few showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Guidance is not overly
agressive and some model suites show little to nothing. I have
maintained the slight change pops. The best forcing appears to
occur around 03 utc this evening. Highs today will tack on a
degree or two from yesterdays readings as the airmass continues
to modify. Overnight lows Thursday morning will also add a
degree or two with some areas remaining above 70 degrees.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 3 am Wednesday... Amorphously broad high pressure
dominates eastern CONUS during the short term, with an upper
trough extending SW from jose off of the new england coast and
distant hurricane maria emerging from the carribbean. Model
soundings show a moderately unstable column developing both
afternoons with p W amounts in the 1.5 inch range. The moisture
will mainly be confined below 700 mb, but this will be enough
for isolated to widely scattered convection to develop both
afternoons and into the evenings. Ill-timed upper disturbances
hinted at in the guidance, and this could extend convection into
the overnight hours. Given limited moisture depth and
unfavorable wind profiles do not expect strong or severe
convection. Temperatures will remain around or above climo
through the short term.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 3 pm Monday... At onset Friday jose will be meandering off
the new england mid-atlantic coasts while maria approaches the
eastern bahamas with weak high pressure in place across the
carolinas. Weak high pressure will remain across the carolinas
early next week as maria moves northward off the southeast u.S.

Coast. We will obviously need to keep a very close eye on
maria's progression, however in the least we expect very
hazardous surf conditions as large swells impact the coast. Held
onto a small pop for primarily sc areas during Friday, then no
pops thereafter (ultimately dependent on maria's track early
next week). Favored a blend of mex ece highs lows through the
long term period.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 12z... Inland terminals of flo and lbt may see brief period
of MVFR vsbys in fog this morning, otherwise good confidence ifr
all sites through the daylight hours and into the evening.

Moderate confidence that MVFR in patchy fog towards daybreak on
Thursday will again affect the inland TAF sites.

Extended outlook... MainlyVFR conditions through the period are
expected with the exception of a few hours of early morning low
clouds or fog most mornings through the period. The highest
risk of ifr conditions will be in the 0900-1200z timeframe each
morning.

Marine
Near term through Wednesday ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... A weak pressure field will continue to
reside over the area and waters with a continuation of light
wind fields. A light west to southwest flow of ten knots or less
will continue through most of the day. Speeds may briefly
increase this evening by a couple of knots as a surface trough
moves across. Significant seas will continue to be 2-3 feet.

Short term Thursday through Friday night ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... Although a broad area of high pressure
over the coastal zones will keep winds light through the period,
generally around 10 kts, expect that swell from very distant
hurricane maria will bring seas up to 3 to 5 ft by Friday night.

Until then, seas will stay in the 2 to 4 ft range.

Long term Friday through Sunday ...

as of 3 pm Monday... Very hazardous maritime conditions expected
during the long term period as large waves emanate outward from
maria. At this time maria is likely expected to remain offshore
as it moves northward from the bahamas, but all marine
interests should closely monitor the progression of this storm
given forecast track uncertainty at this time. Winds on Friday
will be around 10 knots from the northeast to east with similar
conditions Saturday. Speeds will increase during Sunday out of
the northeast as the peripheral circulation of maria begins to
come into the picture. Wavewatch iii guidance indicates
significant swells impacting the coastal waters, especially sat
into sun. Very steep waves are possible, especially near inlet
entrances during the falling tide.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory from 9 am this morning to noon edt
today for ncz107.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rek
near term... mbb shk
short term... Rek
long term... 99
aviation... Rek


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi45 min W 7 G 11 84°F 80°F1015.7 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi67 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 79°F 78°F1016.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi46 min 79°F2 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 11 mi90 min WNW 2.9 83°F 1018 hPa69°F
WLON7 12 mi45 min 87°F 77°F1016.5 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi67 min W 7.8 G 12 78°F 80°F1016.7 hPa
41108 42 mi45 min 80°F2 ft
41064 43 mi67 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 78°F 1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC9 mi22 minWNW 910.00 miFair86°F66°F51%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW9N7NW9
G17
NW9NW9N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5NW8NW9
1 day agoN9N10N10
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NW11N5NW6N4N6NW6NW7N6NW4NW6NW5NW5NW7NW7NW6NW10N8N10W7
2 days agoN10N11N11N10N6N8NE13
G21
N10NE10NE10NE12NE8NE8N6N10N9N8N9N8N7NE7N10N7N10

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 02:00 AM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:04 AM EDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:23 PM EDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT     4.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.5-0.3-0.6-0.30.51.7344.44.13.220.8-0.2-0.7-0.60.11.22.53.64.24.23.52.5

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 02:53 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:20 AM EDT     3.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:10 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:43 PM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.40.60.1-00.41.22.33.23.63.63.22.41.60.80.2-00.10.91.92.93.63.73.42.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.