Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Porters Neck, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:15PM Thursday May 24, 2018 9:40 PM EDT (01:40 UTC) Moonrise 2:31PMMoonset 2:20AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 751 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Overnight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, then 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the day, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 751 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak cold front will slowly dissipate overnight. High pressure will briefly build across the waters Friday into Saturday. The expanded circulation of low pressure that is expected to develop across the gulf of mexico this weekend will bring increasing seas Sunday and Monday along with numerous Thunderstorms. Small craft advisory conditions may develop as early as Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Porters Neck, NC
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location: 34.29, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 250014
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
814 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Synopsis
A weakening front oriented east to west across the area will
provide a focus for storms through Friday. This weekend, low
pressure will move north into the central gulf of mexico, and
spread tropical moisture into the carolinas. The chance for showers
and thunderstorms will increase Sunday into next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 8 pm Thursday... Weakening front continues to linger
across the area this evening and is acting as a focal point for
the ribbon of convection across sc. Loss of heating has taken
away the bulk of the instability, which has resulted in an
overall weakening trend during the last hour or so. Convection
may linger along the boundary for a few more hours but activity
should be finished prior to midnight. Guidance is showing
development of nocturnal marine convection, along the remains of
the boundary, as the feature dissipates while drifting north.

Showers may brush coastal counties, especially across nc early
fri morning. Lows will continue run above climo with most areas
in the upper 60s to around 70.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Saturday night
As of 300 pm Thursday... Continuation of an unsettled pattern with
showers and thunderstorms in a warm and humid airmass. High pressure
offshore will be the dominant feature at least through Saturday
night, with flow between this high and a developing area of low
pressure in the gom driving deep southerly flow and moisture laden
air into the carolinas. In a pattern that seems to be inexorably
repeating itself this month, pwats climb above 1.75 inches and
tropical showers are possible through the period. Note that guidance
brings a brief period of drier air into the region Saturday evening,
which combined with the potential for subsidence aloft due to
confluence north of the upper ventilation atop invest-90, should
reduce convective coverage latter half of the period. Still, showers
with isolated tstms will remain in the forecast through the short
term, with highest pop and best chance for any heavy rain being
across inland zones. Temps will remain well above climo, mid to
upper 80s for highs Saturday, with lows remaining above 70 at the
coast, upper 60s well inland.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... The pattern through the extended period
will remain very moist and supportive of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day. Precipitable water values
will surge in excess of 2 inches on Sunday and for the most
part, remain that way through Thursday. Similar to the several
days, this moist airmass will be fed by deep southerly flow
between bermuda high pressure, and a trough axis along the
mississippi river valley extending into the gulf of mexico. A
contributing factor will be the northward progression of a
possible tropical or sub-tropical low pressure system through
the gulf of mexico. Although direct impacts from this potential
tropical system are not currently expected for our forecast
area, this feature will ensure a continued feed of tropical
moisture across the eastern carolinas.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
As of 00z... Stalled out frontal boundary across the sc portion
of the fa will remain a focus for showers and isolated thunder
into this evening before likely dissipating altogether with the
day's insolation ending. Will have plenty of debris clouds at
all levels overnight.

For the overnight, MVFR ifr possible as fog and low stratus
develops, with 08z to 12z the window when the worse fog stratus
conditions are progged to occur.

Low stratus and fog dissipate by 14z to 15z Fri with diurnal cu
development immediately following. Have kept the threat for
vcts vcsh for the aftn, mainly across inland terminals ie. Flo
and lbt. The coastal terminals may see vcsh vcts along the sea
breeze but for the most part will push inland during the aftn.

Extended outlook...VFR except for morning patchy MVFR ifr in fog.

Tropical moisture will be returning to the area sun-tue with more
widespread thunderstorms with periods of ifr ceilings visibility
possible.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 8 pm Thursday... East to southeast flow across the waters
overnight with weakening surface boundary currently across sc
waters. The boundary will dissipate overnight as it slowly
drifts north. Gradient remains weak with speeds 10 kt or less
and seas 2 to 3 ft overnight.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Southerly winds around offshore high
pressure will persist into the weekend. The gradient will remain
relatively light, so wind speeds will briefly increase to 10-15 kts
Saturday evening, but will otherwise be around 10 kts through the
period. Seas will be formed through a combination of a deamplifying
8 sec swell and a growing 5-6 sec southerly wind wave, especially at
the end of the period. This will produce significant seas of 2-3 ft
Friday night and Saturday, with subtle growth to 2-4 ft Saturday
night.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Southerly flow will persist across the
waters Sunday into Monday night between bermuda high pressure
and a low pressure system that will be moving northward through
the eastern gulf of mexico. Conditions will depend on how much
the low is able to develop in the gulf, but the persistent
southerly fetch and strengthening gradient should support winds
increasing to 15 to 20 knots Sunday, and seas building to 5 to 7
feet. By Tuesday, models suggest the gradient will weaken a
bit, which would allow winds to diminish to 10 to 15 knots, and
seas to slowly subside. Uncertainty is higher than usual at this
point, however, due to the potential for the gulf low to
develop into a tropical cyclone.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Crm
near term... Mjc
short term... Jdw
long term... Crm
aviation... Dch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi41 min ENE 7 G 8 74°F 75°F1020.9 hPa (+0.6)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi41 min 73°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi33 min ESE 7.8 G 12 73°F 74°F1020 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 11 mi176 min ESE 1.9 75°F 1020 hPa70°F
WLON7 12 mi41 min 74°F 78°F1020.5 hPa (+0.7)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi33 min E 9.7 G 16 75°F 75°F1020.4 hPa
41159 43 mi41 min 76°F3 ft
41064 43 mi33 min E 7.8 G 12 76°F 1020.6 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC9 mi48 minENE 410.00 miOvercast73°F66°F81%1020.6 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW10SW6SW6SW6SW6W6W6W5SW3CalmNE4W4N4NE6E9E13E10
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1 day agoS7S6SW5S6SW6SW5SW5S3CalmSW4SW9SW14
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2 days agoS6S6SW6SW7SW4S5SW3SW5SW5W3SW4SW5SW5W7S10CalmSE7S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:02 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:23 AM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:41 PM EDT     4.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:55 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.92.93.63.93.63210.1-0.5-0.40.21.32.43.33.943.62.81.70.7-0.1-0.4

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:12 AM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:57 PM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:49 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.32.12.732.92.621.30.60.1-0.10.10.61.52.433.232.51.91.20.60.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.