Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Porters Neck, NC

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:13PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 11:34 PM EDT (03:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:15PMMoonset 12:49AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1033 Pm Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Overnight..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 kt, diminishing to 10 kt or less after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 kt or less, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 10 kt or less. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1033 Pm Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will persist through tonight. A weak front will drop through the area Thursday afternoon, followed by high pressure through Saturday. The high will shift offshore over the weekend, bringing increasing moisture and rain chances by Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Porters Neck, NC
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location: 34.29, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 200229
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
issued by national weather service charleston sc
1029 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will persist through tonight. A weak front will
drop through the area Thursday afternoon, followed by high
pressure through Saturday. The high will shift offshore over the
weekend, bringing increasing moisture and rain chances by
Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 1025 pm: I will update the forecast to add patchy fog
across the inland counties. Otherwise, the current forecast
appears in good shape.

As of 720 pm: guidance indicates that lower sfc condensation
pressure deficits will slide from the near shore waters across
the coastal plain of sc, hrrr expands the low values across the
inland nc zones as well. Lower dewpoints across the terminals
may keep dewpoint depression at least 1 to 2 degrees through the
night. The latest run of the lav guidance keeps conditions
clear of vis restrictions overnight. However, given the overall
wet conditions across the terminals, clear sky, and light to
calm winds the potential for fog certainly exist. I will watch
trends in latest MOS and observations this evening, at this
time, I will keep the forecast free of fog.

As of 6 pm: satellite indicated very shallow CU across the cwa,
with slight enhancement along a weak sea breeze. The CU should
dissipate within an hour or two following sunset. I will update
the forecast to adjust sky cover and align near term
temperatures with observations.

Previous discussion:
tonight: the large upper ridge aloft centered over the lower
mississippi valley will continue to build eastward, encompassing
the southeast by Thursday morning. Dry high pressure will
continue to build in from the north at the surface, producing
quiet conditions across the forecast area. Lows are forecast to
fall into the upper 60s in most areas, with a few mid 60s
possible well inland. Some model guidance hints at fog
potential, but dewpoint depressions should be sufficiently large
to preclude much fog development. If patchy fog develops
anywhere it should be down south near the santee river.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
A relatively quiet period is in store as a broad upper level
ridge expands over the eastern united states. A weak backdoor
cold front is expected to drop through the area Thursday
afternoon. Despite a relatively dry airmass in place ahead of
the front, most of the models show a slug of moisture along and
ahead of the front with a few hundredths of QPF possible. There
should be enough surface-based instability to support a couple
showers tstms. We included a slight chance pop late Thursday
afternoon over central and southern inland areas where the
greatest instability will be present. Otherwise, dry weather
will prevail Thursday through Saturday with highs in the
mid upper 80s.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
The deep layered ridge will shift east and setup over the
western atlantic Saturday night through Wednesday. A deep
onshore flow will result, bringing greater moisture into the
area. Though most of the shortwave energy will be deflected
around the ridge to our west, robust daily sea breeze activity
should spur at least scattered showers and tstms each day.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
Guidance indicates that lower sfc condensation pressure deficits
will slide from the near shore waters across the coastal plain
of sc, hrrr expands the low values across the inland nc zones as
well. Lower dewpoints across the terminals may keep dewpoint
depression at least 1 to 2 degrees through the night. The latest
run of the lav guidance keeps conditionsVFR. However, given the
overall wet conditions across the terminals, clear sky, and
light to calm winds the potential for fog certainly exist. I
will keep the 0z TAF vfr and will watch observations and latest
mos trends closely. Otherwise, expecting a weak ridged high
will supply light NE winds through Thursday morning, veering to
se during the afternoon.

Extended outlook... MVFR or lower ceilings vsby possible at all
terminals during nighttime hours due to low clouds and or fog.

Low chances for convection through Saturday, then scattered
showers tstms mainly during the daytime hours starting Sunday
which could cause brief flight restrictions.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

tonight: as dry high pressure prevails, quiet conditions are
expected through the night. Light northerly flow is expected
through most of the night, with winds increasing to around 10
knots late. Seas are forecast to range 1-2 feet.

Short term Thursday through Friday night ...

northeast flow expected Thursday through Friday night as high
pressure builds south. Conditions expected to remain below
advisory thresholds.

Long term Saturday through Sunday ...

northeast winds will become southeast by Saturday night as the
surface high over the mid-atlantic region shifts east. No flags
anticipated.

Tides coastal flooding
A coastal flood advisory has been issued for the downtown
wilmington tide gage for the evening high tide. Extratropical
forecast guidance indicates that there is a chance the tide
could approach 6.7 feet mllw (moderate flood stage), and there
is a low end chance the advisory will need to be upgraded to a
warning. For now, we expect the tide to peak between 6.2-6.6
feet mllw around 645 pm edt.

Minor flooding will be possible around the times of high tide
through the end of the week due to elevated tides and an
increasing flow of inland freshwater through the CAPE fear
river. Coastal flooding will be the most likely along the lower
cape fear river near downtown wilmington.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis...

near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi34 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 79°F 82°F1016.4 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi26 min N 3.9 G 5.8 80°F 82°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi34 min 81°F1 ft
WLON7 12 mi34 min 75°F 78°F1016 hPa (+1.6)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi26 min W 5.8 G 9.7 79°F 82°F1015.9 hPa
41108 42 mi34 min 83°F2 ft
41064 43 mi26 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 83°F 82°F
41159 43 mi34 min 82°F2 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC9 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair74°F69°F85%1016 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3SW4SW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmN6N7NW3CalmW6W7
G15
NW9NW7N7NE10N4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS9S8S7SW6S12S8SW12S7S11SW9SW12SW11SW12SW12
G17
SW12SW11SW9SW11S11S7W6NW8CalmCalm
2 days agoSE11
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S10S9S7S8S6S8

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.