Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:31PM Friday January 19, 2018 6:20 PM EST (23:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:51AMMoonset 7:58PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 305 Pm Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 10 kt or less. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft, then 2 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ200 305 Pm Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will migrate slowly across the southeast, moving offshore on Sunday. A cold front will approach from the west Monday night, moving offshore during Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.34, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 192054
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
354 pm est Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will migrate across the southeast through the
weekend shifting off the coast by early next week, bringing
with it a warming trend with continued dry weather. A cold
front accompanied with scattered showers will move across the
area and offshore Tuesday. High pressure will follow and
affect the area thru Friday with temperatures at or slightly
above seasonable levels.

Near term through Saturday
As of 315 pm Friday... Mid level flow through the period will be
of low amplitude. At the surface high pressure well to our west
will drift east slightly. Above the surface layer weak high
pressure will be centered over florida and the bahamas. Locally
this thermal advection neutral to very weakly warm. Tonight's
lows will be quite seasonable whereas tomorrow's highs close to
60 area-wide will represent a 4-5 degree deviation above
climatology.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As of 315 pm Friday... Weak surface high over the western
atlantic will remain the main surface feature through the
period. Weak southern stream shortwave will move east over the
northern gulf of mexico Sat night and sun, moving off the fl
coast Sun night. This feature may end up increasing mid and
upper level moisture over the forecast area early in the
weekend. Cirrus may linger over the area Sat night before skies
clear out for sun. Weak shortwave ridge builds over the
southeast late in the period as the shortwave exits to the east.

Digging 5h trough over the western plains Sun will lead to an
increase in southwest flow aloft which may advect some thicker
cirrus over the region as the period ends. Temperatures will be
around 5 degrees above climo overnight with high running closer
to 10 degrees above.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 315 pm Friday... A relatively quiet work week anticipated.

Models are in decent agreement in taking an upper closed low
located over the central u.S. On Monday, and lifting it NE to
the eastern great lakes. The sfc low will follow the same
general path, however it's associated cold front will push
across the fa during tue. The fa will see highs in the 60s both
mon and Tue along with breezy conditions especially on tue.

Models indicate high pressure will then follow Wed thru fri
with temperatures at or slightly above climo norms. Flow aloft
during the Wed thru Fri timeline will prevent the cold air over
canada from dropping this far south.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
As of 18z...VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds
will continue from the west southwest. Little to no clouds
expected. Tonight, no fog expected. Winds at the boundary layer
around 18 kts, with an unfavorable moisture profile for even
ground fog. Saturday, sunny with clouds increasing but after
end of TAF period.

Extended outlook...VFR except for possible MVFR in scattered
showers Monday into early Tuesday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 315 pm Friday... West to
southwest winds expected through the period with high pressure
remaining to our west and only moving slightly eastward. The
broad swath of light offshore winds along most of the east
coast will keep seas in the 2-3 ft range.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night ...

as of 315 pm Friday... Weak high pressure centered just
southeast of the waters during the period will maintain weak
gradient and light winds over the waters. Flow will be from the
south with speeds under 10 kt through the period. Seas around 2
ft Sat night will run 2 ft or less Sun and Sun night.

Long term Monday through Wednesday ...

as of 315 pm Friday... The highlight for this period will be a
cfp slated for Tue morning. Weak onshore flow Mon will increase
and become SW Mon night into Tue ahead of the cold front. After
fropa early tue, winds will veer to the W and NW and then slowly
abate by Tue night and continuing into Wed as the center of
high pressure approaches from the gulf coast states. Scec
conditions likely late Monday into Tue with SCA at this point a
possibility. Significant seas 1 to 3 ft Mon will build to 3 to 5
ft with a few 6 footers possible late Mon night into tue. As
winds become offshore, W to nw, on tue, seas will actually
subside due to a shortened fetch. Wind driven waves at 4 to 5
second periods will dominate Mon into tue. By wed, seas will
run 1 to 3 ft thruout with a small ese ground swell dominating.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... mbb
short term... Tra
long term... Dch
aviation... Hdl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi50 min SW 8.9 G 11 50°F 48°F1021.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi51 min 45°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi72 min SW 12 G 16 48°F 45°F1021.4 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 16 mi95 min WSW 5.1 1021 hPa
WLON7 17 mi50 min 49°F 46°F1021.3 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi72 min WSW 16 G 21 53°F 60°F1022 hPa
41159 39 mi50 min 57°F4 ft
41064 39 mi72 min SW 12 G 14 54°F 58°F1021.8 hPa
41108 47 mi50 min 46°F3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi27 minSSW 710.00 miFair49°F28°F46%1021.6 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W5W5SW5W5W4SW3W4W5SW5SW4W4W4SW4W5W7W9SW11SW11W10
G18
W8SW9SW8S7
1 day agoNW8NW9N7N10N10NW17
G23
NW18
G27
NW15NW15
G24
NW12NW13NW14NW16W14NW14NW10NW11W12W12W14
G21
W12NW8NW11NW5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE5SE8E6E8NE6E6E4N6W6

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:11 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:57 AM EST     3.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:02 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:15 PM EST     2.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.50.1-0.100.61.42.32.93.132.51.91.20.50.1-0.10.10.71.42.12.42.32

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:22 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:31 AM EST     4.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:02 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:59 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:47 PM EST     3.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.3-0.1-00.51.52.53.43.943.52.81.80.90.2-0.10.20.91.82.63.13.232.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.