Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:29PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 6:53 PM EDT (22:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:58AMMoonset 11:10PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 303 Pm Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Tonight..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 303 Pm Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will shift east overnight. The high will remain the dominate feature through Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.34, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 281920
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
320 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
Dry high pressure will move off the mid-atlantic coast tonight
and Thursday. A warm front will lift northward across the
carolinas Friday, accompanied by increasing chances of showers
and thunderstorms. Bermuda high pressure offshore this weekend
and much of next week will bring warm and humid conditions along
with scattered thunderstorms each day.

Near term through Thursday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Almost perfect weather this afternoon
with a a few cumulus developing northwest of a line from
darlington to lumberton. The high pressure center that is
controlling our area is over the DELMARVA this afternoon and
will continue to slide to the east. This will allow for a return
of moisture and the warm up will begin for the area.

The statistical guidance continues to show a dry Thursday but the
gfs20 model indicates possible convective activity along the sea
breeze on Thursday afternoon. At this time will keep just below
20% for the afternoon thunderstorms.

Lows overnight will range from 62 degrees inland to the upper 60s at
the beaches. Thursday's highs will reach the upper 80s inland to the
middle 80s at the coast.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
As of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure off the mid-atlantic coast will
spin in place through the end of the week as mid-level ridging
amplifies offshore. The increasing 1000-500mb thicknesses will back
into the carolinas this period, so temperatures will slowly begin to
warm, most notably by increasing overnight mins vs higher aftn maxes
thanks to onshore flow. Highs Friday will rise into the mid and upr
80s, with mins Thursday night hovering around 70, and only cooling
into the low 70s Friday night.

As the ridge amplifies offshore, mid-level moisture gets funneled
into the carolinas from the gulf coast and pwats approach 2 inches
during Friday. This occurs in tandem with a slow moving shortwave
lifting SW to NE across the southeast, and Friday should feature
quite a bit of thunderstorm coverage. The peak of this activity will
be diurnally forced as MLCAPE rises over 1500 j kg, but will be
mainly of the pulse variety thanks to 0-6km shear less than 20 kts.

However, as thicknesses climb and moisture increases, the warm cloud
depth will climb to near 14 kft, so torrential rain will be possible
in any stronger storms. Most activity will wane diurnally, but the
presence of the upper vort necessitates at least schc pop through at
least the first part Friday night, although the best axis will
likely shift offshore.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... After the cool weather of the last couple
of days, summer heat and humidity should come roaring back next
week. Persistent upper level ridging across florida and the gulf
coast and the bermuda high offshore will allow heat and humidity to
build through the period. A time-series plot of forecast 850 mb
temps shows +17c Saturday, +17.5c Sunday, and +18c Monday through
Wednesday. The ECMWF actually has some forecast 850 mb temps near
+20c by next Wednesday, however we've noticed over the past several
years there is a summer warm bias in the ECMWF at the extended range.

The airmass should be moderately to strongly unstable through the
period with CAPE values rising to 2000-3000 j kg each afternoon.

West to northwest flow aloft, a pinned seabreeze near the coast, and
a well-defined piedmont trough (perhaps evolving into an inland
thermal low for a few days next week) should set the stage for
scattered diurnally-driven storms each day. Precipitable water
values are highest Saturday (2.0 to 2.2 inches) falling to around
1.8 inches Monday and Tuesday.

With afternoon in the 90s inland with dewpoints in the lower 70s,
heat indices should reach 100 to 103 degrees in most locations away
from the beaches each day next week.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
As of 18z...VFR conditions are expected through this forecast
period as high pressure and drier air will remain. At the end of
the period few to sct clouds below 4000 ft are possible as
onshore flow begins. Northeast winds are expected to veer to the
east this afternoon with speeds reaching 8 to 10 knots in the
afternoons. Overnight winds will be less than 4 knots except
along the southeast coastal tafs which see winds of 5 to 8
knots.

Extended outlook... MVFR and ifr conditions are possible in and
near diurnal convection each day from Friday through Monday.

Marine
Near term through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Northeast to east winds of 10 knots
over the waters will continue to veer slightly overnight and
will be from the east over all the waters by daybreak. Seas are
running 2.5 feet at frying pan shoals and 2.0 feet at 41110 and
the seas of 2 to 3 feet are expected to continue throughout the
overnight.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Surface high pressure off the mid-atlantic
coast will gradually retreat to the east through Friday night
allowing winds to shift from E SE to S SW through the period. The
gradient remains relaxed in the vicinity of this high pressure, so
wind speeds will be 10 kts or less regardless of direction. This
will keep seas at relatively low amplitude, 2-3 ft, with a 2 ft se
swell and 2 ft S wind wave comprising the spectrum.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Bermuda high pressure well offshore will
extend its ridge axis westward across florida and into the northern
gulf of mexico this weekend into early next week. With the ridge
remaining south of the ridge, mainly southwesterly winds are
expected through the period with the typical afternoon seabreeze
backing wind directions more southerly with an increase in wind
speeds.

With inland highs in the 90s and westerly winds aloft, there should
be scattered thunderstorms making their way down to the beaches and
offshore virtually every afternoon. The best potential appears to be
Saturday, however no day will be immune to this potential.

Average sea heights of 2-3 feet are expected.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Drh
short term... Jdw
long term... Tra
aviation... Drh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi54 min ESE 11 G 12 80°F 82°F1020.3 hPa (-0.4)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi85 min 80°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi106 min ESE 7.8 G 12 80°F 80°F1021.3 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 16 mi69 min SE 5.1 83°F 1022 hPa58°F
WLON7 17 mi54 min 82°F 82°F1021 hPa (+0.0)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi106 min E 5.8 G 9.7 80°F 81°F1021.5 hPa
41159 39 mi41 min 81°F2 ft
41064 39 mi106 min E 7.8 G 9.7 79°F 81°F1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi61 minESE 810.00 miFair82°F54°F38%1021.1 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S5CalmW4W5W4N6N7N5NE6NE4NE4NE3NE5NE8NE11NE7N73NE7E75E8E8
1 day agoSE5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW44W6CalmCalm4E5SE8S7S7
2 days agoSW7SW8CalmW3NW5NW3N3CalmNW3N4CalmN4CalmN6N6N10NE8NE12N6N6N6N5NE4E4

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:04 PM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:42 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.73.42.71.80.90.2-0.2-0.20.2122.72.92.82.41.710.40-00.41.22.13

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:34 AM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:53 AM EDT     3.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:46 PM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.43.72.61.30.2-0.5-0.6-00.922.93.63.83.52.61.50.5-0.2-0.4-00.81.92.93.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.