Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:01PM Thursday February 21, 2019 5:27 PM EST (22:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:33PMMoonset 8:23AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 315 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 7 am est Friday...
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt, becoming N after midnight, then becoming ne 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog early. Areas of fog. A slight chance of showers early this evening. A chance of showers late this evening and overnight. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Fri night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..SE winds 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
AMZ200 315 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build in from the north on Friday, before sliding offshore on Saturday. Warm weather is then expected Sunday ahead of a cold front that moves off the coast Sunday evening. High pressure returns early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.34, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 212056
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
356 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build in from the north on Friday, before
sliding offshore on Saturday. Warm weather is then expected
Sunday ahead of a cold front that moves off the coast Sunday
evening. High pressure returns early next week.

Near term through Friday night
As of 315 pm Thursday... Much of the forecast area has broken out of
the stratus fog and temperatures have quickly responded with a few
areas in the mid and upper 70s. Enough of a temperature gradient has
developed to allow a sea breeze to form, which has helped keep
temperatures down along the immediate coast. Otherwise, flat h5
ridging prevails across the southeastern united states with dry
mid upper air in place per water vapor imagery. In addition, the
subtropical jet is spreading deeper moisture across mexico and tx
into the plains, and the ms and oh valleys. Although the subtropical
jet will shift toward east during the near term period the overall
pattern aloft will remain somewhat unchanged across the southeastern
states.

At the surface, a cold front will drop south across the forecast
area later tonight across the southeast nc zones and during Friday
morning across northeast sc zones. Stratus fog is expected to
develop again this evening ahead of the front, possibly becoming
dense at some locations. The chance for showers will increase
tonight into Friday with uvvs overspreading the area in
southwesterly flow aloft and development of isentropic lift.

However, the higher QPF amounts are expected to be much farther west
and northwest of the forecast area through Friday night. Otherwise,
atypically warm overnight temperatures with temperatures falling
during Friday in the wake of the front will not for much in the way
of a diurnal range, especially for the northern half of the forecast
area.

Short term Saturday through Sunday
As of 330 pm Thursday... High pressure north of the area Friday
night slides offshore on Saturday, but the high is quite strong
and the cad setup over the local area should last through much
of the day except near the coast where temps may reach 60;
highs the 50s elsewhere. As far as rain chances... Any precip
will be light and mainly confined to northern areas in the
morning hours. Fairly stagnant or even slowly rising temps into
Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front. This front
crosses the area late Sunday, and any rain amounts will be quite
light due to the best forcing and moisture profiles staying
north of the local area. Highs mainly in the low mid 70s.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 330 pm Thursday... Dry weather returns to start the long
term period as surface high pressure builds in from the west.

The high slides offshore through midweek, as chances for rain
rise due to increasing warm air advection. Temps through the
period will be close to normal for late february... Highs in the
60s with lows in the upr 30s to upr 40s.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 18z... Conditions are gradually improving across the area
as the wedge erodes. Ifr MVFR CIGS will continue for a couple
more hours at kflo klbt. The return of ifr CIGS is likely
tonight with ample low-level moisture and light winds ahead of
the next cold front. Chances for -dz ra will also increase
overnight.

Extended outlook... Front lingering in the area will lead to
more ifr ceilings and or vsbys Friday into Saturday as another
round of overrunning rain develops. Sub-vfr will likely prevail
early Sunday before another cold front pushes through lifting
toVFR late Sunday and Monday.

Marine
As of 315 pm Thursday... Per satellite imagery shallow sea fog
continues across the adjacent coastal waters. Local procedures and
hrrr indicate that sea fog will likely continue tonight into Friday
morning, generally south of the cold front as it moves through. The
current dense fog advisory is in effect through 4 pm and it may
need to be extended or re-issued for tonight.

The pressure gradient will remain weak ahead of the aforementioned
cold front. The front should clear the southernmost waters Friday
afternoon. A strong northeasterly pressure gradient will prevail in
the wake of the front as high pressure noses in from the north. The
strong northeasterly winds will persist Friday into Friday night with
a coastal trough taking shape by early Saturday morning. Seas will
be 3 to 5 ft in weakening swells this afternoon into tonight.

Steeper higher frequency waves are expected as the northeast fetch
becomes established Friday into early Saturday morning. A chance of
showers will also exist tonight into early Saturday morning.

Winds seas slacken a bit into Saturday as a coastal trough
locates in the vicinity. 6 ft seas possibly return Sunday ahead
of an approaching cold front, which crosses the waters late
Sunday. High pressure and improving marine conditions then into
early next week.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 315 pm... Minor coastal flooding is possible, especially with
the next couple of high tide at downtown ilm. Water levels will
likely fall a little short of thresholds for wrightsville beach.

Thus plan to issue a coastal flood advisory only for downtown ilm
with high tide later this evening.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm this evening to midnight est
tonight for ncz107.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 7 am est Friday for amz250-252-254-
256.

Synopsis... Mas
near term... Srp
short term... Mas
long term... Mas
aviation... 08 dl srp
marine... Mas srp
tides coastal flooding... Srp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi58 min SSW 13 G 14 59°F 54°F1018.3 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi140 min SSW 12 G 16 56°F 55°F1018 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi58 min 54°F4 ft
WLON7 17 mi58 min 79°F 53°F1017.9 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi80 min WSW 16 G 19 62°F 63°F1018.7 hPa
41064 39 mi80 min W 14 G 18 63°F 62°F1017.9 hPa
41159 39 mi58 min 61°F7 ft
41108 47 mi58 min 56°F4 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi35 minWNW 710.00 miFair78°F63°F60%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W4NW7NW6NW4NW4NW5CalmSW3S6NW4NW3NW4CalmSE3S3SW6SW9SW11W13W10SW10W8NW7
1 day agoNE10N11NE12NE10NE11NE10NE9NE11NE12NE12NE11NE10NE9NE7NE8NE6NE6N5NE6E7SE4E4E3Calm
2 days agoNW7NW4N54N6N6N11N12N11N7N6NE11N11N11N10NE10N10NE10NE9NE12NE10NE7NE7NE7

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
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Thu -- 03:19 AM EST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:22 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:58 AM EST     3.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:50 PM EST     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:59 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:24 PM EST     3.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.4-0.3-0.7-0.60.11.32.43.33.63.42.81.90.90.1-0.5-0.7-0.20.71.82.83.43.42.9

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
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Thu -- 02:20 AM EST     -1.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:23 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:28 AM EST     4.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:51 PM EST     -1.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:00 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:54 PM EST     4.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0.6-1.2-1-0.21.22.844.84.742.91.40.1-0.8-1.1-0.60.623.44.34.54.13.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.