Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:15PM Thursday May 24, 2018 7:37 PM EDT (23:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:31PMMoonset 2:19AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 402 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, then 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the day, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 402 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak cold front in the area today will slowly dissipate tonight. High pressure will briefly build across the waters Friday into Saturday. The expanded circulation of low pressure that is expected to develop across the gulf of mexico this weekend will bring increasing seas Sunday and Monday along with numerous Thunderstorms. Small craft advisory conditions may develop as early as Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.34, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 241930
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
330 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Synopsis
A weakening front oriented east to west across the area will
provide a focus for storms through Friday. This weekend, low
pressure will move north into the central gulf of mexico, and
spread tropical moisture into the carolinas. The chance for showers
and thunderstorms will increase Sunday into next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 315 pm Thursday... Significant and hazardous convection will
mostly shift S and W of the forecast area coincident with the best
low level convergence. Isolated convection will linger over SE nc
and NE sc into late afternoon, or even the early evening, but
diminishing trends expected as low-level cooling spreads deeper
inland and diurnal cooling sets in. The ocean may become more active
aft 6z as diurnal buoyancy increases and isolated convection may
impinge the coast and CAPE fear near or prior to daybreak. Because
of the surface boundary across roughly the santee river of NE sc,
and that it may lift a bit north overnight, have kept mentionable
shower chances intact for the overnight.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Saturday night
As of 300 pm Thursday... Continuation of an unsettled pattern with
showers and thunderstorms in a warm and humid airmass. High pressure
offshore will be the dominant feature at least through Saturday
night, with flow between this high and a developing area of low
pressure in the gom driving deep southerly flow and moisture laden
air into the carolinas. In a pattern that seems to be inexorably
repeating itself this month, pwats climb above 1.75 inches and
tropical showers are possible through the period. Note that guidance
brings a brief period of drier air into the region Saturday evening,
which combined with the potential for subsidence aloft due to
confluence north of the upper ventilation atop invest-90, should
reduce convective coverage latter half of the period. Still, showers
with isolated tstms will remain in the forecast through the short
term, with highest pop and best chance for any heavy rain being
across inland zones. Temps will remain well above climo, mid to
upper 80s for highs Saturday, with lows remaining above 70 at the
coast, upper 60s well inland.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... The pattern through the extended period
will remain very moist and supportive of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day. Precipitable water values
will surge in excess of 2 inches on Sunday and for the most
part, remain that way through Thursday. Similar to the several
days, this moist airmass will be fed by deep southerly flow
between bermuda high pressure, and a trough axis along the
mississippi river valley extending into the gulf of mexico. A
contributing factor will be the northward progression of a
possible tropical or sub-tropical low pressure system through
the gulf of mexico. Although direct impacts from this potential
tropical system are not currently expected for our forecast
area, this feature will ensure a continued feed of tropical
moisture across the eastern carolinas.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 17z... A cold front will move S across the southern terminals
this afternoon. Showers have become isolated from klbt to kilm.

Despite a possible tempo shower this afternoon, best confidence at
klbt, expectVFR these terminals through the afternoon with ne-e
winds. At the southern terminals the best shower thunderstorm
development should be from kmyr to S of kflo. By mid afternoon all
activity should be well S of the southern terminals. Will maintain
vfr vcsh through early afternoon at the southern terminals, and will
include vcts sub-vfr only if radar at issuance time indicates an
immediate threat.

Overnight, ifr possible as fog develops. Densest fog most likely at
kflo where humidities will be highest. The remaining terminals
should be worse case MVFR.VFR Friday morning except kflo which my
not reachVFR until around 14z. Winds will be se.

Extended outlook...VFR except for morning patchy MVFR ifr in fog.

Tropical moisture will be returning to the area sun-tue with more
widespread thunderstorms with periods of ifr ceilings visibility
possible.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 320 pm Thursday... Generally an E wind overnight, but may
fluctuate ese to ene due to proximity of a weak frontal boundary
near by in a meandering mode. Winds however should remain
capped at about 15 kt and no advisory or headline needed. Seas
2-3 feet in a mix of SE waves every 8 seconds and light to
moderate chop. A radar update is advisable if venturing out, as
several tstms will roam about late tonight into early Friday.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Southerly winds around offshore high
pressure will persist into the weekend. The gradient will remain
relatively light, so wind speeds will briefly increase to 10-15 kts
Saturday evening, but will otherwise be around 10 kts through the
period. Seas will be formed through a combination of a deamplifying
8 sec swell and a growing 5-6 sec southerly wind wave, especially at
the end of the period. This will produce significant seas of 2-3 ft
Friday night and Saturday, with subtle growth to 2-4 ft Saturday
night.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Southerly flow will persist across the
waters Sunday into Monday night between bermuda high pressure
and a low pressure system that will be moving northward through
the eastern gulf of mexico. Conditions will depend on how much
the low is able to develop in the gulf, but the persistent
southerly fetch and strengthening gradient should support winds
increasing to 15 to 20 knots Sunday, and seas building to 5 to 7
feet. By Tuesday, models suggest the gradient will weaken a
bit, which would allow winds to diminish to 10 to 15 knots, and
seas to slowly subside. Uncertainty is higher than usual at this
point, however, due to the potential for the gulf low to
develop into a tropical cyclone.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Crm
near term... Mjc
short term... Jdw
long term... Crm
aviation... Mrr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi49 min E 9.9 G 12 75°F 75°F1020.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi37 min 73°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi89 min ESE 12 G 16 74°F 74°F1019.1 hPa
WLON7 17 mi49 min 76°F 78°F1019.8 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi89 min E 14 G 19 76°F 76°F1019.8 hPa
41159 39 mi37 min 76°F3 ft
41064 39 mi89 min E 9.7 G 14 76°F 1019.8 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi44 minE 910.00 miOvercast75°F66°F74%1020 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11
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SW9SW6SW10SW6SW6SW6SW6W6W6W5SW3CalmNE4W4N4NE6E9E13E10
G18
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1 day agoS5S5S7S6SW5S6SW6SW5SW5S3CalmSW4SW9SW14
G20
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2 days agoS6S5S6S6SW6SW7SW4S5SW3SW5SW5W3SW4SW5SW5W7S10CalmSE7S11
G19
S10SW10S8SW11

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:12 AM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:57 PM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:49 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.32.12.732.92.621.30.60.1-0.10.10.61.52.433.232.51.91.20.60.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:02 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:23 AM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:41 PM EDT     4.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:55 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.92.93.63.93.63210.1-0.5-0.40.21.32.43.33.943.62.81.70.7-0.1-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.