Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:07PM Saturday November 17, 2018 12:46 PM EST (17:46 UTC) Moonrise 2:12PMMoonset 12:58AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 903 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Rest of today..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..NE winds 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft.
AMZ200 903 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will prevail this weekend. A coastal trough will brush the coast early next week. Then, cooler high pressure will build into the area and will prevail until late week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.34, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 171411
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
911 am est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure along the east coast will move offshore late
Sunday. A weak coastal trough will develop along the georgia and
south carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, possibly spreading
a few showers onshore. High pressure over the plains will push
a cold front off the carolina coast Tuesday. This high should
maintain dry weather through thanksgiving day.

Near term through tonight
As of 900 am Saturday... Sunny and near seasonable temperatures
will continue for today. No changes made to forecast...

elongated surface high stretching from the central gulf coast
to the oh valley will start to consolidate north- northeast of
the area today while the center to the southeast slowly fills.

Forecast soundings show an abundance of dry air with
precipitable water under half an inch through the period. Other
than some occasional patches of thin cirrus skies will remain
clear until late tonight, when cirrus may start to increase from
the southwest. Cold advection continues today, although in a
much weakened state. Lacking any warm advection, even 850 mb
winds are out of the northwest until late tonight, temps will
only warm slightly from yesterday as the airmass slowly
modifies. Partial thickness suggests highs in the low 60s for
most areas. Lows also end up slightly warmer down to airmass
modification and increasing high cloud after midnight, upper 30s
to lower 40s.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 300 am Saturday... The upper air pattern should slowly
amplify early next week as a ridge builds across the rockies and
a trough deepens across the great lakes and mississippi valley.

The subtropical jet will become quite active with a 120 kt jet
streak passing just to our south on Sunday, and a merged polar-
subtropical jet setting up overhead on Monday. Fortunately
thermal gradients and advection will remain weak in the low
levels.

Surface high pressure over new england on Sunday will move off
the coast on Monday. A weak coastal trough developing along the
ga and north fl coast will build northward along the sc coast
Sunday night. Without strong forcing aloft or significant local
baroclinicity this trough should not strengthen appreciably.

Low-level wind fields will respond to the trough, and models show
a shallow layer of overrunning developing within a zone of
veering winds between the surface and about 5000 feet agl Sunday
night into Monday. Given the shallow depth of moisture, weak
winds, and only meager isentropic lift i'm not increasing pops
beyond 20-30 percent. The best chance of rain appears to be late
Sunday night into early Monday morning when i've got a couple
hundredths of an inch of potential QPF in the gridded forecasts.

High temperatures both Sunday and Monday should range from 63 to
67 degrees, warmest along the coast. I've bumped up forecast
lows Sunday night to the upper 40s inland and lower 50s near the
coast with the expectation of more clouds around. Clouds should
decrease Monday night and allow lows to fall into the mid 40s
inland and upper 40s near the coast.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... High pressure will shift off the coast by
Sunday, and the airmass will moderate allowing temperatures
to recover into the mid upper 60s most areas. A coastal trough
could support a few showers over coastal waters, but any
precipitation should remain away from land areas. Sunday night, the
coastal trough will sharpen and could push a few showers into
coastal counties. Otherwise, increased cloud cover will hold low
temps in the lower mid 40s inland and in the 50s on the coast.

Monday, weak surface cyclogenesis along the coastal trough, perhaps
supported by a weak shortwave trough aloft, could translate to
isolated scattered showers. Latest forecast pushed slight chance
into coastal areas but per area consensus held pops below 15 percent
with no mention of showers inland. The, high pressure and cooler
temperatures should prevail through Thursday, before low pressure
brings the next chance for rain to the area late this week.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 12z... There will likely be some scattered frost this morning
with temperatures hovering just above freezing in many spots. Any
light fog will dissipate by 12-13z. Light gradient today, just light
northeast flow with winds becoming calm again at sunset. Some light
fog possible at the end of the forecast period.

Extended outlook...VFR Sat Sun and possible MVFR Mon with an
approaching disturbance off the coast.VFR Tue wed.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 900 am Saturday... Winds will remain northerly through the
period, veering from northwest to northeast during the day.

Elongated surface high to the west will shift north of the
waters, causing winds to veer. Not much change to the current
gradient is expected through the period and wind speeds will
remain around 10 kt. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft with occasional 4
ft possible in the vicinity of 20 nm, mainly during the first
part of the period.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 300 am Saturday... High pressure centered over new england
on Sunday will provide a light easterly wind across our coastal
waters. A weak coastal trough developing along the coast of ga
and north fl will spread northward across the sc coastal waters
Sunday night. Most models show a weak low developing somewhere just
south of CAPE fear on Monday, moving eastward and away from the
area Monday night.

Upper level support will remain quite weak, and since there
shouldn't be a significant temperature gradient across the area
it makes sense that the coastal trough and subsequent low
pressure development will remain weak. Wind speeds should remain
less than 15 knots through the period, and the primary wave
should be a 9-second southeast swell.

Long term Tuesday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Weak low pressure will push offshore
early next week, and high pressure will build from the north. As
a result, offshore winds 10-15 knots with gusts as high as 20
knots will turn toward the north northeast late this period.

Combined seas will build to 2 to 4 feet and will include a 9-10
second period swell from the east-southeast.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Iii rgz
short term... Tra
long term... Chs
aviation... Dl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi29 min ENE 8 G 9.9 55°F 66°F1024.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi47 min 65°F3 ft
WLON7 17 mi29 min 67°F 55°F1023.9 hPa
41159 39 mi47 min 74°F3 ft
41108 47 mi47 min 65°F3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi54 minNE 710.00 miFair58°F39°F50%1024.6 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13W13
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W11NW8W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE8N8NE8NE7
1 day agoW5W18
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Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
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Sat -- 12:58 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:38 AM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:22 AM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:51 PM EST     2.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:51 PM EST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.42.72.82.62.21.81.30.90.70.81.11.72.42.82.92.82.41.91.40.90.60.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:59 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:23 AM EST     3.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:47 AM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:44 PM EST     3.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:12 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.83.132.72.21.50.90.50.40.71.32.12.83.23.33.12.51.81.10.50.20.30.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.